Laying down a set

[Ghazban]

Party 1/2, I have $200, villain has me covered. Villain is a regular in the game who is slightly over breakeven after about 500 hands. He's fairly tight preflop and I don't recall ever seeing him making any tricky moves. I have 33 on the button.

Villain opens for $8 in MP, someone calls, I call.

Flop comes AJ3r

Checked to me, I bet $20, villain is the only caller

Turn is a 2, completing the rainbow

Check, check

River is a 9, he bets $50, I fold.


I expect to get berated for this but those who are inclined to flame ought to think about what hands an unimaginative, straightforward villain plays this way. I thought of two and they both beat me.

[jkkkk]

I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[djoyce003]

no chance he has AK here? If he hasn't tried anything tricky, why would he check a flopped AAA or JJJ twice. The only hand I can see him checking twice here is AAA...no way he checks JJJ twice. It seems like an AK worried about someone with AJ to me. I'm not sure I raise here, but I think I call this, I can't fold a set unless the board is really unfriendly. If he has AAA or JJJ or 999 then I'll pay it off.

[ryanghall]

Ghazban, come on.

You simply can't lay this down. What is his VPIP? Could he not have AQ here? He could certainly have AK.

Who is the player in question? I have a lot of hands at 200NL logged.

Is this not worth at least a call on the end (and probably a raise?)

I would personally make a big bet on the turn here.

[Jocke_F]

I am not gonna berate it, but I would never fold this river for 50$, you are getting 2 to 1 for your call, and I dont think you are beat more then 50% of the times, why couldn't he play AK or AJ like this, checking a non scary board to you, and then check the turn again going for the check raise?

[Maulik]

the villian didn't go allin. its only $50 into a $51 pot?

All you have to do is call and complete the hand, I understand if he goes allin or comes over the top of you, however he's allowing you to make the last decision by betting the pot. PAY HIM OFF HERE.

[jkkkk]

I really think Ghazban posts threads like these for a joke every now and then, weird sense of humour.

[PokerCat69]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think Ghazban posts threads like these for a joke every now and then, weird sense of humour.

[/ QUOTE ]
Has to be.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

[Go_Blue88]

i think that you need to bet the turn here. by the time you get to the river, i have no idea what villian holds. before i try to figure it out, i'm wondering, does villian generally bet the majority of flops after raising? or does he bet the ones he hits? what have you noticed him do after raising p/f?

[Ghazban]

He showed after I folded but I won't give it away just yet.

[ryanghall]

It matters not what he showed, you have to call this river :/

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
i think that you need to bet the turn here. by the time you get to the river, i have no idea what villian holds. before i try to figure it out, i'm wondering, does villian generally bet the majority of flops after raising? or does he bet the ones he hits? what have you noticed him do after raising p/f?

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally, he will lead the flop after raising. However, out of position against two players with a hand like KK/QQ, a check/fold is more likely.

[IamLeach]

I would bet the turn here for sure. somthing like 40 or 50. I think villian has an ace and wants to show it down...however given the action on the turn he probably figures he has the best of it and decided to bet the river.

[DWarrior]

Could be. The only problem is that this would be a tricky play for AK, as check/calling a set of Aces and especially Jacks doesn't seem like all that devious, it sounds reasonable.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if that's your read, then why bother raising on his check to you?

He could have had QQ, KK too.

[IamLeach]

isnt the pot somthing like 67?

[PokerCat69]

[ QUOTE ]
He showed after I folded but I won't give it away just yet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing KK/QQ.

[wtfsvi]

Nice hand. Might consider just open folding the flop though.

Seriously. You have never seen him do anything tricky, and you think that there's no way he doesn't have the nuts after he checks it twice to you? I suppose he showed you AA since you're defending the play so eagerly, but did you really fold this hand? Crazy stuff.

[Maulik]

3 callers preflop = $24
flop = $20 * 2 = $40 +34

minus rake $3? ~ $64

[arod15]

He could bet 100K and i call no way you fold for 50. You should have bet the turn and bet the river not the other way around.

[Go_Blue88]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the turn here for sure. somthing like 40 or 50. I think villian has an ace and wants to show it down...however given the action on the turn he probably figures he has the best of it and decided to bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was sort of thinking this as Villian could have AQ. But I think he'd bet the flop with this. I could see him playing AJ in this manner. I think you have an argument for laying this hand down if you bet the turn and folded to a c/r or a c/c and river lead out by villian, but as you played it, folding is a bad play.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[PinkSteel]

For the specific line he took, possibilities for a tight, unimaginative player might include:

AA (3), JJ (3)
AK (12), AJ (9)

AQ (12), KK (6), QQ (6) (less likely)

If he's a solid regular in this game I guess he might not make that river bet with just TPTK, but it looks reasonable to me.

But even discounting TPTK, the likelihood that he holds AJ is greater than the combined likelihood of his holding AA and JJ (just counting combinations).

On that one alone, and getting better than 2:1, I'd call.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice hand. Might consider just open folding the flop though.



[/ QUOTE ]

Ignore my advice, this sounds better. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[IamLeach]

[ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree there. I'd call someone that has AK wit 33 anyday.

[JFB37]

I don't like this line at all. You flopped exactly what you wanted. If you are calling a raise in late position with 33 what are you trying to do except flop a set? If you do, and then worry about set over set when there is paint on the board you have defeated the whole point of your original call.

As this hand played out, you must bet the turn. Given that you did not, I would call the river and might even raise. Your check on the turn could well have induced a bet from AK, AQ KK, QQ.

Putting him on AA or JJ only is too narrow.

[Bukem_]

If you think he would only check with a set on the flop then why don't you check behind?

[soah]

Why bet so close to full pot on the flop? You're way ahead or way behind. Some of the best advice I've ever read was "keep the pot small until you've figured out what everyone has."

On the river I'd call against most people. He probably doesn't have QQ or KK, but I expect that he will sometimes have AK or AJ.

If you're laying this down solely based upon your analysis of his play over all of the hands that you've seen, then I don't understand why you're posting the hand -- we can't help you with that type of decision. You're either right or you're wrong, but either way you are in a better position to make the decision than we are.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree there. I'd call someone that has AK wit 33 anyday.

[/ QUOTE ]

and then play it the way Ghazban did?

Yes definitely +EV

[/sarcasm]

[DWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree there. I'd call someone that has AK wit 33 anyday.

[/ QUOTE ]

He meant to say that if you don't think he can play the way he did in this case with AK, then you shouldn't play small pairs.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
He could bet 100K and i call no way you fold for 50. You should have bet the turn and bet the river not the other way around.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds like an efficient way to lose a six figure bankroll.

[IamLeach]

I love the Carpal \'Tunnel advice. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this line at all. You flopped exactly what you wanted. If you are calling a raise in late position with 33 what are you trying to do except flop a set? If you do, and then worry about set over set when there is paint on the board you have defeated the whole point of your original call.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're not playing video poker -- we need to have the best hand of anyone at the table to win the pot, not just make the "hand that we're looking for." First level thinking will never win you any money.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Why bet so close to full pot on the flop? You're way ahead or way behind. Some of the best advice I've ever read was "keep the pot small until you've figured out what everyone has."

[/ QUOTE ]

The honest response is that I thought "Wow! I've got a set! Let's bet!" Just because I expect the PFR to fold KK/QQ here doesn't mean I can't make some money off of the other guy if he's got a good ace or wants to chase a gutshot or something.

[ QUOTE ]
On the river I'd call against most people.

[/ QUOTE ]
Me, too

[ QUOTE ]
He probably doesn't have QQ or KK, but I expect that he will sometimes have AK or AJ.

If you're laying this down solely based upon your analysis of his play over all of the hands that you've seen, then I don't understand why you're posting the hand -- we can't help you with that type of decision. You're either right or you're wrong, but either way you are in a better position to make the decision than we are.

[/ QUOTE ]

All right, guilty as charged. I didn't post this for advice; I posted it because the hyper-aggressive advice in almost every thread on this board is starting to irritate me. I'm not trying to be the 2+2 Phil Hellmuth who makes big laydowns all day, but I assert that there are many times when you can know you are beat even at small stakes and lay down a strong hand.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Knowing exactly how your opponent will play various types of hands postflop is a reason in favor of playing more pots with them, not a reason against it.

[IamLeach]

[ QUOTE ]
I assert that there are many times when you can know you are beat even at small stakes and lay down a strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well put;)

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not gonna berate it, but I would never fold this river for 50$, you are getting 2 to 1 for your call, and I dont think you are beat more then 50% of the times, why couldn't he play AK or AJ like this, checking a non scary board to you, and then check the turn again going for the check raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mathematically, I need to have the best hand about 30% of the time to call here. I think I have the best hand maybe 10% of the time.

[Go_Blue88]

[/ QUOTE ]
All right, guilty as charged. I didn't post this for advice; I posted it because the hyper-aggressive advice in almost every thread on this board is starting to irritate me. I'm not trying to be the 2+2 Phil Hellmuth who makes big laydowns all day, but I assert that there are many times when you can know you are beat even at small stakes and lay down a strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you that you can definately make big laydowns when your instincts tell you that you're beat, but based on the way you played this hand i don't see how you know. I feel like the turn was crucial in this one; it would have told you everything that you needed to know. By not betting it, I just don't see how you can put villian on precisely AA (or JJ).

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Knowing exactly how your opponent will play various types of hands postflop is a reason in favor of playing more pots with them, not a reason against it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me how Ghazban expects to make money in this situation...

If villain check-calls his bet, hes practically finished with his hand. If villain bets and Ghazban raises, hes almost definitely folding if hes missed ak, all the other times he has an overpair, i doubt hes investing much more into this pot, hes probably folding by the turn.

This doesn't sound like a very +EV situation to me, perhaps you could explain how it is?

Maybe Ghazban will make good on his initial investment everytime villain has a (missed) overpair or AK that has hit at the same time hes made his set, is this what you think?

[Jocke_F]

well if you are such a strong hand reader I have no problem with the laydown. But a question, is he such a tight preflop raiser that he wouldn't raise AJo? and isn't it possible if he raises AJ that he can play it like this?

[Ghazban]

This guy doesn't lay down overpairs easily. If he has AA and the flop comes K-high, he'll bet and raise heavily assuming he's up against a good king (which he will be against many players in this game).

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me how Ghazban expects to make money in this situation...

[/ QUOTE ]

If your opponent flopped the nuts, and you only have one out against him, then you aren't going to make any money, nor should you be trying to. This is where you save money instead.

[ QUOTE ]
all the other times he has an overpair, i doubt hes investing much more into this pot, hes probably folding by the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pure conjecture on your part with no basis upon any of the information provided. Furthermore, even if it were true, then Hero should make a killing off of bluffs.

[-Skeme-]

I don't understand your check behind on the turn? Had you already made up your mind that he had a higher set by then? I think I like your laydown. I would say he has a set more often than anything else and AJ once in a while. I also wouldn't rule out KQ once in a while either.

[jkkkk]

Never fast plays top set?

Actually I don't want to hear anymore, I expect he had JJ or AA, most likely JJ.

Either way I can't see how anyone could advocate this play, unless you have a super read which tells you he check-calls mid / top set here 95% of the time and checks the turn.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand your check behind on the turn? Had you already made up your mind that he had a higher set by then? I think I like your laydown. I would say he has a set more often than anything else and AJ once in a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that seemed most likely to me. I probably would've called a smaller river bet just to satisfy my curiosity. Instead, I got the same effect for free by typing "nice slowplay" in the chat box before folding /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Taciturn]

I was in this hand with you. (I folded on the flop) You called the river bet. He showed AA.

[iceman5]

[ QUOTE ]
I was in this hand with you. (I folded on the flop) You called the river bet. He showed AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont care what the guy had. This hand is badly played.

But whats worse, if Taciturn is telling the truth, then Ghazban is posting this hand to make himself look like a bigshot laying down a set at the perfect time to prove himself better than the rest of us.....and he didnt even really fold!

I hope thats not what really happened.

If thats what happened why wouldnt he just post that he knew folding was correct but just couldnt do it. He still gets to look like he made a good read and nobody would blame him for not folding because his hand is good most times there no matter what his gut tells him, but he doesnt come off as a clown as he did here (if he really didnt fold).

[unlucky513]

after reading your posts for the past few months.. i often wonder how you're a winning player. nothing personal, but how do you not make this call? you make laydowns that i wouldnt dream of making... who knows, maybe they were correct.

what is your bb/100?

[bkholdem]

Is villian a multitabler? An observant player? What does he think of you?

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I was in this hand with you. (I folded on the flop) You called the river bet. He showed AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, you are correct. I had similar circumstances happen twice this afternoon. This is the hand where I actually folded (though I strongly considered it on the 33 hand):

I had $200, villain had me covered. I had 55 in LP. 1 person limped, Villain raised to $10, I was the only caller.

Flop was KsQd5c

He checked to me, I bet $20 and he called.

Turn was a 8h and it was checked through

River was 8d, he bet $60 and I folded.

[Maulik]

tell us what he had already.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

What a foolish thing to say. If he knows his opponent so well that he can actually get away from set under set, that's more reason to call with the small PP, not less.

You are making the rather arrogant assumption that he is totally wrong and a terrible player, without leaving any room for the possibility that he simply knows his man.

-Eric

[Macquarie]

Hi,
i do agree that advice on here is often very aggressive, and checking is a dirty word.

I like your turn check. Keeps the pot under control on a hand that you are way ahead or way behind. But checking the turn makes it much more likely that this river bet is from a way-behind hand, and I'd call it every time.

Compared to the calling the river line, betting the turn loses you the same amount when you are behind, but wins less when you ahead.

[elindauer]

I'd say he can reasonably value bet AK, AJ, AA, JJ. There are 21 combinations of the hands you beat, 6 combinations of the ones you don't. You are getting 2:1 on what appears on the surface to be about 3.5:1 odds in your favor. Clearly, the default play is to at least call and probably raise.

Of course, you are discounting AK and AJ because of the flop check. I'd argue that the type of player that check a flopped set there may very well also check top 2. All you have to believe is that he'll play AJ this way and you have a call, a very profitable one at that.

Folding may be right, but not without much more information than you have provided here.

Good luck.
Eric

[DWarrior]

This is in response to the accusation that Ghazban is modifying his actions to make himself look like a better player, and by his response of having this situation happen twice in one day.

OK, I'm not sure what's going on, but assuming you are right...

Sounds like you got beat by a higher set once, and that made you fold your set the second time.

Both the 33 and the 55 don't make sense, why would you fold in either? Both times I don't know why you didn't bet the turn, and why you didn't call the river.

Statistically, set over set shouldn't occur all that much for you. If you folded both times and only one was the wrong call, you lost money overall.

Without any info on the turn, and no obvious draws completed in either hand, it looks like a big laydown, and as Harrington points out, big laydowns aren't always great, as making one wrong laydown will neutralize a few correct big laydowns.

I don't know why, but Bill Fillmaff comes to mind when in one of the episodes he says "Some may call me 'Weak Tight', but I preferr 'Tight Aggressive'" /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Ghazban]

In the hand where I had the threes, I called and villain had aces. In the hand where I had the 5s, I folded and he showed KK. The 55 hand happened first and was against a rock. The 33 hand happened second and was against another rock who I didn't know as well.

I don't usually lay down sets. At Foxwoods on Saturday, I was on the wrong end of set over set 3 times in 15 hours and I paid off all of them. I also flopped top set another 4 times after raising preflop (all pairs TT-KK) and didn't win a dime postflop. I've been a set magnet lately.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me how Ghazban expects to make money in this situation...

If villain check-calls his bet, hes practically finished with his hand. If villain bets and Ghazban raises, hes almost definitely folding if hes missed ak, all the other times he has an overpair, i doubt hes investing much more into this pot, hes probably folding by the turn.

This doesn't sound like a very +EV situation to me, perhaps you could explain how it is?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has it occurred to you that opponent he's playing does not have to be the hypothetical opponent you have chosen? You can't imagine a player who would always almost always bet the pot w/ AK / AJ there, and who perhaps is known to have trouble laying down anything top pair or better? I think this describes a huge percentage of bad players. It does not seem difficult to me to find that some subsection of this group will also consistently slowplay flopped sets.

I'm not saying his play is good as a default. You'd have to have very specific information on a player before this fold would be close to right. I'm just saying that your flaming of him as a bad player who should quit playing poker is definitely more wrong. His play can also be consistent with someone who is GREAT at poker, and to completely throw out that possibility is foolhardy.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

What a foolish thing to say. If he knows his opponent so well that he can actually get away from set under set, that's more reason to call with the small PP, not less.

You are making the rather arrogant assumption that he is totally wrong and a terrible player, without leaving any room for the possibility that he simply knows his man.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see where I have made the assumption that he is a terrible player, neither do I see where i have said he is totally wrong.

I am still of the opinion that he should of at least been able to call down, it takes one hell of a good read to make this fold a good one. Perhaps his read was that good, i'm not saying this line was absolutely wrong but I still think it probably is.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me how Ghazban expects to make money in this situation...

If villain check-calls his bet, hes practically finished with his hand. If villain bets and Ghazban raises, hes almost definitely folding if hes missed ak, all the other times he has an overpair, i doubt hes investing much more into this pot, hes probably folding by the turn.

This doesn't sound like a very +EV situation to me, perhaps you could explain how it is?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has it occurred to you that opponent he's playing does not have to be the hypothetical opponent you have chosen? You can't imagine a player who would always almost always bet the pot w/ AK / AJ there, and who perhaps is known to have trouble laying down anything top pair or better? I think this describes a huge percentage of bad players. It does not seem difficult to me to find that some subsection of this group will also consistently slowplay flopped sets.

I'm not saying his play is good as a default. You'd have to have very specific information on a player before this fold would be close to right. I'm just saying that your flaming of him as a bad player who should quit playing poker is definitely more wrong. His play can also be consistent with someone who is GREAT at poker, and to completely throw out that possibility is foolhardy.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

hahaha, thanks for making me chuckle. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[derick]

Sorry if I'm totally clueless here ... This sort of thing is where my game is very weak. I'm way too aggressive post flop and tight preflop. This is the sort of hand where I lose a lot of chips because I bet and push.

I would have bet the turn and call the river.

I'm a 18 VP$IP with 9% PRF, my postflop aggression is too high (it varies between 4 and 9 on the Party 25NL.


I really need help getting my post flop aggression down.
I'd love to be able to understand in more detail how to lay down big hands like sets (or at least lose less and not push chips at nuts)


Please explain the original post for agressive people.

Yes he could have top or middle set, but couldn't he also have top pair or top two pair AJs, A9s, AKo, AKs 1/2 the time?

Could he have been planning to checkraise top pair on the turn?

Would this player always slow play a set and no other hand like this on a safe board?




Why didn't the OP bet the turn? If your read suspects he has top or middle set why not bet 1/4 to 1/3 the pot on this turn?

Or is your read on him so good that you *know* he has a set based on his call of your preflop bet???????

How can your read be so good that you can lay down a set given a $50 raise?

How can we know from your post that you have that good a read?

I'm just starting to play NL and I can't see why you played the hand this way.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Honest advice: forget you read this thread. Just focus on TPTK and overpairs. That's where you're losing your money. Not on overplaying sets.

[derick]

[ QUOTE ]
Honest advice: forget you read this thread. Just focus on TPTK and overpairs. That's where you're losing your money. Not on overplaying sets.

[/ QUOTE ]


Thanks for the advice!

You're spot on.

I find it hard to lay down TPTK and overpairs as well.

This could be my conditioning from moving from limit poker 2 months ago. In limit you just about never lay down TPTK or an overpair -- The pot odds are so huge.

Edit:Does anyone know how to make em dashes rather than hyphens in this editor?