Last hope of a desperate man

[11t]

I haven't been able to show down any hands but I've done my fair amount of pushing.

Is pushing here suicidal or is it time to let her fly?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t2600)
UTG (t1810)
MP (t2565)
CO (t3590)
Hero (t1275)
SB (t1660)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero...

[Freudian]

I don't like pushing here. I don't think you have a big FE here and when I don't I like to have a hand that does ok when called.

I am probably slightly tighter when it comes to pushing than most here though.

[donny5k]

Why don't you think he has a big FE? He doesn't need much FE to make it correct, especially since he probably won't get another shot.

[11t]

Well my question is that even if I get dealt a better hand before my BB the chances of somebody else behind me being dealt a better hand increases (I think geometrically) at a pretty rapid rate and at my 3xBB I'm going in with almost anything.

I figured 83s was the best example for a potential "any two" move.

[Meatmaw]

[ QUOTE ]
BB (t2600)
UTG (t1810)
MP (t2565)
CO (t3590)
Hero (t1275)
SB (t1660)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to push here typically. With only 2 to act, push 32o. I think it is favorable to taking a random hand against 3 to act, and your relative stack size to the others is not so imbalanced (i.e. you're about 1/2 ave stack and no other person is over 2x or under 1/2).

I would suggest pushing here and looking to push with top 30% next hand when 1810 stack and 1660 stack are then shorter than you. Then begin considering sitting back to let things cool off slightly before having at it again.

[durron597]

Push if your opponents are at all tight. BB doesn't have the odds to call you with at least half of his hands.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Why don't you think he has a big FE? He doesn't need much FE to make it correct, especially since he probably won't get another shot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because BB has to call 875 and pot is 1875.

[Meatmaw]

That's a good point. In that case, I would probably only push if I had evidence he was pot-odds ignorant. Barring that, I would hope no one comes in on the next hand before I push any two against shorter stacked BB next hand.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like pushing here. I don't think you have a big FE here and when I don't I like to have a hand that does ok when called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but his FE goes up because calling is bad for relative stack size reasons. Do you call here with J7s?

[Ixnert]

You've got as much FE as you're ever going to have, against as few stacks as you're going to have a chance with before the blinds kill you. The blinds are collectively half of your stack. Your cards don't matter. Push.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
You've got as much FE as you're ever going to have, against as few stacks as you're going to have a chance with before the blinds kill you. The blinds are collectively half of your stack. Your cards don't matter. Push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes they do. I fold 72o here. I think this is close enough that the suited + slightly bigger matter.

Edit: my first post my brain was thinking 85s for some bizarre reason.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like pushing here. I don't think you have a big FE here and when I don't I like to have a hand that does ok when called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but his FE goes up because calling is bad for relative stack size reasons. Do you call here with J7s?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I suspect button is pushing any two, I call with J7s in an instant.

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes they do. I fold 72o here. I think this is close enough that the 2 gapperness + suited matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. 72o isn't losing to many more hands than 83s is. The great majority of your value is in picking up the blinds without a fight -- I don't think it matters much whether you're down 70/30 or 67/33 (numbers pulled from thin air to illustrate point) when someone actually calls you.

That said, I might fold 72o myself, but I think it's a leak (that I sometimes can't bring myself to push really bad hands that I probably should).

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

If I suspect button is pushing any two, I call with J7s in an instant.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if he's pushing the top 85% only?

[tminus]

id wait, you have still have a couple hands until the blinds hit and 83s isnt what i want to push after being so agro

[Nicholasp27]

i push here with almost any 2 (maybe even any 2)
if they fold, u up your stack by 1/3
if u fold instead, u will be down to 600 after next 2 blinds and then a double-up or steal will merely put u right back where you are and u'll have ZERO FE...right now you don't have much, but it's better than zero, coupled with several folds before you

you have around 11-12 hands left, but most won't have FE (if any) and you risk having to win a SD with barely an edge (or no edge) just to get right back to where you are now

in HOH2, he does the math on a similiar situation with regards to stack vs blinds and it's mathematically correct to go in with 108o but u actually have less bbs than in that situation and are in worse shape

[Nottom]

He has 3 more hands to wait for something better and its not to hard to find something better than 83.

[Jay36489]

I ran this through power tools. It's +EV if the two left to act have calling ranges less then maniacal. And there is definitely a differnce between 83s and 27o.

[Nicholasp27]

right, because if they are maniacal, then there goes your FE, which is where the EV is coming from

if they are maniacal, then u may have to wait for a stronger hand, tho it may be more -EV to fold and wait for that than to take this slightly -EV situation of pushing vs maniacs

i guess it depends just how maniacal they are

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran this through power tools. It's +EV if the two left to act have calling ranges less then maniacal. And there is definitely a differnce between 83s and 27o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, the difference is like 5% right? That's how close my gut said this push was.

[Jay36489]

Whoops, I screwed up and forgot to change the blinds. It is +EV at maniacal setting which is top 24% of hands. Loosen the BB up to top 60% of hands and its -EV.