set of 9's gets action, checkraise the turn?

[Bodhi]

Villain is very loose (around 50%+), raises a lot preflop, and is fairly aggressive for someone who is so loose (1.25 af). I haven't seen him do anything remarkable. Now I've really been doing my best not to slow down when I have a hand like this one, even though a lot of the time I 3-bet here and then the villain will just call down (and sometimes fold the river). Here the board has few draws (he's not ccalling w T8 is he?) and I want to check-raise the turn...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop:(9sb) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn:(6.5bb) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks...

[crunchy1]

There are two hands that are ahead of you on the turn and you have 10 outs against each of them. Checkraise is fine as long as you KNOW that villian will bet.

[Bodhi]

Right. Perhaps I should rephrase my question: After the flop raise, it's very unlikely that the villain is on a draw, right (just because of the texture of the board)? And if he's not on a draw, then he'll bet the turn.

[W. Deranged]

A check-raise is certainly not that bad here, but it is certainly not always the right decision. This is a classic trade-off situation:

1. Calling the flop and check-raising the turn makes one extra SB when you are ahead (versus three-betting and leading), assuming it doesn't get villain to fold when he would have called down had you taken a different line.

2. Calling the flop and checking the turn will cost you 1.5 BB when the turn gets checked through, and in fact even more if you allow your opponent to catch a winning card he wouldn't have caught had you continued to bet through.

So, you can see that you need to be sure villain will bet the turn a minimum of 75% of the time (you need to be gaining three SBs from a successful check-raise for every one time the turn gets checked through), and in fact even more because of the dangerous free-card effects. So I would say you should really only pursue this move if you are 85-90% sure that your opponent will bet the turn.

If you're sure of that, go ahead. Note that there are some live draws here and the flop looks unlikely to have hit anyone and so you may be a little bit more likely to have the turn checked through here than normal. (Villain could be drawing or raising overcards or something like that).

[brettbrettr]

I prefer going to war on the flop, maybe even lead-3-betting the turn: link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2825844&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;vc=1)

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
After the flop raise, it's very unlikely that the villain is on a draw, right (just because of the texture of the board)? And if he's not on a draw, then he'll bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
True - and then I think the better question, to which I don't have a definitive answer, would be: Will he raise the turn if you lead?

If the answer is yes - then you should be leading in an effort to 3-bet.

[Bodhi]

That's an interesting line.

No way am I checking my set on the flop against someone who only cold-called preflop, but is a stop-n-go appropriate here?
I'm so tired of 3-betting the flop and seeing the villain fold the turn.