In which I 3 bet and fold to cap...

[MaxPower]

This was a friendly 2/4 game which I sometimes play in and I know the players very well. We play a number of games but this was a Texas Holdem hand.

I am about 2 off the button and it is folded to me with 88. I raise, the player to my left who is loose and pretty predictable cold-calls (in the CO), the button (who is the classic calling station) calls and both blinds call.

The flop is: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Checked to me, I bet, the CO raises, the button calls, blinds fold, I call.

The turn is the 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet, CO raises, button calls, I 3-bet, CO caps, Button calls, I fold.

Any comments? C'mon guys, I could have seen the showdown for the same 2 big bets. The pot is big.

[Jeff W]

Aren't there 19 BB in the pot now? I'd just call the turn raise and call down, but you're obligated to call to hit a set because you'll surely earn >3 BB on the river.

[Brash620]

Bad fold in my opinion. Your getting 18 to 1 on the call, this pot is too big to fold. Your up against a loose player so its hard to say what he has. A set does seem possible, but he could also have floped top pair and played it the same way.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad fold in my opinion. Your getting 18 to 1 on the call, this pot is too big to fold. Your up against a loose player so its hard to say what he has. A set does seem possible, but he could also have floped top pair and played it the same way.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't possibly know this, but this guy would NEVER would cap the turn with just top pair. I should have included that. I won't say anything else for now.

[GrunchCan]

I don't get the turn 3-bet. And I think the descision between calling the cap & folding is close enough to err on the side of not losing a whole pot that's yours, and I would call.

If the desicion is so close that whether or not a non-tricky opponent is bluffing (a chance > 0%) and other variables usually insignifigant become signifigant, in limit I think the descision is close enough to just call. Edit: becasue I don't think it's possible to compute matters of human behavior with such presicion.

[DMBFan23]

if the decision is close, nowhere near the whole pot is yours /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
if the decision is close, nowhere near the whole pot is yours /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. What's your action?

[MaxPower]

After the first turn raise, there are two possibilities.

1) I am ahead, in which case I assume 3-betting is the highest EV play.

2) I am drawing to 2 outs (or none). In this case folding would be correct.

In this case I am assuming possibility 2 is much more likely than possibility 1, but calling down might be right depending on the size of the pot.

I'm getting about 13:1, so lets say I decide to call and call a single river bet even if I don't improve. My effective odds are 14:2. So I only have to win 12.5% of the time.

Against this player I am fairly certain that I won't win that often, but I can't find a fold. However, I am 100% certain that if I 3-bet and he caps it, I am drawing to 2 outs.

So my feeling is that if I can't find a fold, 3-betting is better since I will lose the same when I am drawing slim and win more when I am ahead.

By plaing this way, I give up the small chance of hitting my 2-outer, but I don't think that is worth that much.

However, I didn't realize that the pot would be 19BB after he capped it. That makes it close to a call with the implied odds. I still think it is break even or a slightly -EV to call here since I will average less than 4BB on the river when I make my hand.

Maybe this is not a great hand to post here since you will rarely play against someone who is this easy to read. I can only be 100% certain that the cap means I am drawing to 2 outs, because I have played hundreds and hundreds of hours with this guy.

There is my justification, there must be something wrong with it though.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
However, I didn't realize that the pot would be 19BB after he capped it. That makes it close to a call with the implied odds. I still think it is break even or a slightly -EV to call here since I will average less than 4BB on the river when I make my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

46 unknown cards. 2 outs. 44:2 or 22:1 odds. 19 BB in the pot so you only have to average 3 BB on the river which is easily doable.

I would have played the hand differently against this opponent--either 3-betting the flop(my preference) or check-raising the turn. This seems to be a spot where I don't want to put 3 bets in on the turn because I am going to be obligated to call anyway.

[GuyOnTilt]

It's a bad turn 3-bet because it's a bad turn fold to the cap. You only need to make up somewhere around 1.5 BB's on the river to make a call profitable, which on average you will. So since you can't fold to the turn cap when the Button calls two more again, you shouldn't be 3-betting in the first place. In general, it is not a good idea to do this, but in this case because you're able to narrow down your opponent's range so narrowly, you can make it 44 unknowns after the turn cap. You will also be drawing dead ~4% of the time, depending on the opponent.

One small sidenote. You did not mention whether you had the 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. If you do not take mental note of this during a hand, start now. It is important in a lot of situations that come up. For instance, in this hand after the Button calls two more back to him on the turn, it is very reasonable to put his most likely hand on a flush draw. If you have the 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif you can again discount your unknowns more, though not down a full two cards. This is a very slight and subtle change in calculation which the vast majorty of players do not care about, but in this case it makes your fold clearly wrong. Stuff like this can definitely matter in close decisions, though more often it will occur on the flop rather than the turn.

GoT

[MaxPower]

Yeah, that makes sense. It did not occur to me during the hand that the pot would get big enough for me to draw to the 2-outer.

I did not have the 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I do usually note this in case where I am drawing to a set and I don't want one of my outs to make someone else a flush. In this case, not having the 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif works in my favor since I will probably get paid off big-time if the 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif comes.

Believe it or not the Button actually had pocket Aces and the CO had 7s full as I expected.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
One small sidenote. You did not mention whether you had the 8 . If you do not take mental note of this during a hand, start now. It is important in a lot of situations that come up. For instance, in this hand after the Button calls two more back to him on the turn, it is very reasonable to put his most likely hand on a flush draw. If you have the 8 you can again discount your unknowns more, though not down a full two cards. This is a very slight and subtle change in calculation which the vast majorty of players do not care about, but in this case it makes your fold clearly wrong. Stuff like this can definitely matter in close decisions, though more often it will occur on the flop rather than the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've not been doing this, and I love the thought. Let me make sure I understand this. My 2-outer is a little bit better than normal odds to come in because instead of 46 unknowns, I only have 44 unknowns making me a bit better than 22 to 1, like 21 to 1, right?

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One small sidenote. You did not mention whether you had the 8 . If you do not take mental note of this during a hand, start now. It is important in a lot of situations that come up. For instance, in this hand after the Button calls two more back to him on the turn, it is very reasonable to put his most likely hand on a flush draw. If you have the 8 you can again discount your unknowns more, though not down a full two cards. This is a very slight and subtle change in calculation which the vast majorty of players do not care about, but in this case it makes your fold clearly wrong. Stuff like this can definitely matter in close decisions, though more often it will occur on the flop rather than the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've not been doing this, and I love the thought. Let me make sure I understand this. My 2-outer is a little bit better than normal odds to come in because instead of 46 unknowns, I only have 44 unknowns making me a bit better than 22 to 1, like 21 to 1, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

And because if you make a set, your opponent cannot make a flush.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
And because if you make a set, your opponent cannot make a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

The board is paired so you'd like him to make a flush when you make your full house. GOT's earlier point is that the second player cannot be on a flush draw and have one of your outs--8c. Therefore, your odds are slightly better than they would be if you decided that there were 46 unknowns. With this much action it is unlikely that the button has an 8 in his hand.