Top pair in a raised pot - a possibly very basic question

[Aces McGee]

This is a hand a friend and I have disagreed quite a bit on. I played it a couple of weeks ago, so I don't remember anything too specific about reads. I do know that I was playing pretty aggressively, which probably means the table was a touch tighter than normal. I've been raising a decent number of hands preflop, and since those pots are generally contested by myself and only one or two others, I've been following up with a flop bet almost every time.

Party 3/6
UTG limps. I raise next in with KsQd. If anyone is paying attention, this means AA-88 or so, AK-AT, KQ-KT, and maybe QJ. [EDIT: That is, these are the hands they've seen me raise during the session, but not necessarily from EP. I can't say for sure which hands I've raised in this session from which positions.] (People are of course free to talk about the preflop play, but it's really not the important part of the hand. If you must do so, please try to comment on the postflop, as well). The very next player cold-calls. Everyone folds back to UTG who calls. Three to the flop.

Qh 6s 3s
UTG checks, I bet, other guy folds, UTG now raises.

What's my line here:

Three bet?
Call down the whole way?
Stop and go?
Call and checkraise the turn?
Something else?

How often do you think I'm behind?

Thanks in advance.

-McGee

[W. Deranged]

How good is your opponent?
How tricky is your opponent?

You have a very strong hand for this flop. You are not likely to be behind to two pair unless your opponent is extremely loose. AQ is possible, but maybe less likely because your opponent didn't raise pre-flop (he did check-raise the flop, suggesting he knows how to be aggressive). Sets are possibilities, as are a possible slow-played overpair. Most of the time, though you'll be good.

Three-betting the flop and calling the flop planning to raise the turn are both viable options here. The advantage of the flop bet is it may be more likely to get called down than a turn raise if your opponent is a thinking player who can make some decent folds. The advantage of the turn raise is that it gets an additional small bet in the flop, particularly if your opponent has difficulty laying down his hand. If your opponent is on a flush draw, raising immediately might be better because, in my opinion, it makes the later streets slightly easier to play (raising a turn /images/graemlins/spade.gif and then getting three-bet would suck).

In a live game against players who you play often, this is an area where it is good to vary your play. The one thing to be sure of is that you get a raise in somewhere... your hand is much too good to let it go unraised. Also be prepared to value bet this river barring anything unforeseen.


P.S. Tighten your pre-flop standards. KTo and QJo, for example, are folds UTG +1, not raises.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. Tighten your pre-flop standards. KTo and QJo, for example, are folds UTG +1, not raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I forgot about position. I meant that these are hands they've seen me raise throughout the session, not necessarily from UTG+1. I'll try to edit my post.

Thanks. I'll respond to the other stuff after more comments come in.

-McGee

[Crveballin]

My line would be 3-bet the flop and lead out on the turn. I find often times bad players will use a check raise on the flop just on a flush draw. The way UTG plays the flop and turn can tell a lot of info.

Whats your read on UTG?
How would you check-raise the turn if you have position on him?

[cassady]

If your opponent has been paying attention, and so far you've been leading out on almost any flop if you were the preflop raiser, I'm not sure how much strength this check raise indicates. I think you're ahead here more often than you are behind. I'd call the flop check-raise then raise any turn. Depending on reads of the player, I'd fold to a three bet or go into call down mode. I'd probably favour folding to a three bet if the turn was a spade.

PS: unless it's a blind steal, don't raise QJ offsuit.....

[avisco01]

Tough to analyze without a read on UTG obviously. However, given that most people play poorly, I think 3-betting against typical opponents is fine in this spot. If UTG caps I think we can be pretty certain that we're up against an overpair, we're outkicked, or we're up against a weird two pair. A set is also possible of course. If UTG calls our 3-bet I'm leaning towards putting him on a flush draw. One thing, maybe I read it wrong, but I don't think you have position to checkraise on the turn. Doesn't UTG act first? For the rest of the hand I probably call down if UTG caps, unless I improve of course. However, I don't think its terrible to fold on the turn UI if UTG caps my 3-bet on the flop and leads out on the turn. However, most people tell me that is too tight. My argument is that he must have something pretty good to checkraise and then cap the flop and lead the turn against me, especially when I showed preflop strength and lead the flop. However, again, without a read its tough. If this guy is a rock, I think we fold to his checkraise, if he's a maniac, I say we play back whenever possible. Oh, and help me out with something, what is meant by "stop and go?" I've seen that used a few times but I'm not sure what is meant by that.

[brettbrettr]

And clearly a check raise at any point in this hand is impossible. Call the raise. Get in another raise on the turn or river. I'm currently (probably mistakenly) addicted to raising the river with decent not great made hands so I might do that.

Given your image, another raise, somewhere, seems warranted.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
What's my line here:

Three bet?
Call down the whole way?
Stop and go?
Call and checkraise the turn?
Something else?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are likely still ahead. I would call and plan on raising most turn cards if UTG bets again. If he checks I would almost always bet.

Cards I might just call the turn with are a Jack (since QJ is such a likely limping hand here for your opponent) and, in any event, mayu have let him pick up an additional draw and any /images/graemlins/spade.gif. In those cases I probably just call down, although I admit that is arguably a weak-tight stance.

[avisco01]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your image, another raise, somewhere, seems warranted.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but do we think that UTG is paying attention to anyone's image? If I think he's a good player, I'm thinking about what he thinks of me, what he thinks I have etc... If I think he's a poor player, I know he's likely not noticing how aggressive I've been and is just playing his cards without regard for thinking about what I or anyone else has. A read is almost a must to analyze this situation completely IMO.

[W. Deranged]

I think Brett is absolutely right here that a raise is in order at some point, and I don't think it's that read dependent. A flop check-raise is not that strong a play. Even a semi-experienced/tricky/laggy/competent (whatever adjective might apply here) might make this play with top pair or even less (e.g. 99). KQ rates to be ahead of the range of hands villain is check-raising, particularly considering that two pair is quite unlikely.

Going into call-down mode here is tight-weak thinking, IMO. I think the interesting questions are whether the raise should be left for a big-bet street and what line hero should take if villain puts in a re-raise.

[W. Deranged]

Excellent point, Colgin. A J and possibly a 10 should possibly put hero into call-down mode because these are the most likely two-pair outs.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
And clearly a check raise at any point in this hand is impossible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. I'm a moron. I like how I included both the stop n go and the checkraise as possible options.

-McGee

[avisco01]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Brett is absolutely right here that a raise is in order at some point, and I don't think it's that read dependent. A flop check-raise is not that strong a play. Even a semi-experienced/tricky/laggy/competent (whatever adjective might apply here) might make this play with top pair or even less (e.g. 99).

KQ rates to be ahead of the range of hands villain is check-raising, particularly considering that two pair is quite unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, but what range of hands is UTG expected to have here? Well, don't we need some sort of read to answer that question? Can we put someone on a range without knowing anything about the player? Will most players really checkraise a Q high flop with 99 with an EP preflop raiser and MP preflop cold caller?



[/ QUOTE ]Going into call-down mode here is tight-weak thinking, IMO. I think the interesting questions are whether the raise should be left for a big-bet street and what line hero should take if villain puts in a re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed on all accounts. I advocated 3-betting here as I agree that we're usually ahead. If villain is getting tricky raising with top pair weak kicker, or a flush draw, I want him to pay for that. If Villain just calls our 3-bet, I think flush draw or weak Q become more likely. My goal is to put villian in call down mode if possible, and I don't think calling the flop intending to raise the turn does that. For instance, what do we do if we call the flop raise, raise the turn when / if villain leads the turn and we face a 3-bet? I do agree that we definitely have to get a raise in there at some point.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but do we think that UTG is paying attention to anyone's image?

[/ QUOTE ]

OP included it in the OP. Hence, I guess *he* thinks its relevant.

[W. Deranged]

Good ideas, avisco...

My only point about the read on villain is that the majority of the time a read is going to point to the same conclusion--that you need to raise somewhere. Only given a very specific read on my opponent would I deviate from this; namely, if my opponent were known to be extremely passive/weak (in which case calling down or even folding might come into play) or if my opponent were very aggro. (which might affect which course I want to take as far as raising the flop v. the turn).

I think the question of gaining information on later streets is not that much of a concern. If villain gets aggressive in any way on the turn, you know you're in trouble, regardless of whether it is villain check-raising you if you three-bet the flop and bet the turn or if it's villain lead/three-betting the turn. Both are very strong moves giving similar (if not exactly the same) information. In both cases hero would have to consider folding, but I don't think one course of action is obviously better from that point of view.

[avisco01]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but do we think that UTG is paying attention to anyone's image?

[/ QUOTE ]

OP included it in the OP. Hence, I guess *he* thinks its relevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point was, how relevant can it be if UTG isn't even paying attention to what we're doing?

[avisco01]

Yeah, I usually do the whole raise for information thing on the flop too much. Most people criticize me for doing that, so perhaps I'll do it less for a few sessions and see how it works out. In this case, if I'm up against the worst hand possible like QQ or something, I set myself up for a turn checkraise if I 3-bet the flop because Villain can always smooth call and go for the checkraise on the turn. If we just call the raise here and get 3-bet on the turn, I'm considering calling down, which may cost us 2 more bets assuming we don't improve. However, if we raise the flop and get 4-bet, we can call one more small bet and fold on the turn unimproved, saving us from calling at least one big bet, because we can safely say we're more than likely behind if such action ensues, right? One point about a spade falling on the turn, someone mentioned in a previous post that we should fold to a spade falling on the turn, but doesn't that give us a redraw with the K/images/graemlins/spade.gif if we're behind to a smaller flush? Again, if we 3-bet the flop, get 4-bet and see the turn, and the turn is a spade, we can profitably call a big bet in hopes of improving to a flush, two pair, trips. I just think 3-betting the flop gives us more information, more options.

[Aces McGee]

Brett...what's the argument for raising the river instead of the turn?

-McGee