View Full Version : Tricky River Decision 10/20 6-max
Villan was something like 38/22 or so. He had been stealing alot, and I had been threebeting him quite a bit, and up to this point he had been folding without a showdown so he could have decided to take a stand with a weak holding. Is this a check fold? After the flop call is a 10-8 or small pp more likely then an A,J or Q making it a thin value bet?
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Villan raises on button I threebet 99.
Flop AA8r. I bet he calls.
Turn Q completing the rainbow. I bet he calls.
River J now what?
I check fold it, you are not ahead of a lot of his possible holdings... Only hands that you beat are lower PP or Kxs.. easy check/fold imo
Unless you have a very good read of him or that he is stealing with any 2. I check fold...
PokerBob
07-12-2005, 10:30 AM
give up
BottlesOf
07-12-2005, 10:42 AM
Check fold, he has you beat here A LOT.
Surfbullet
07-12-2005, 02:54 PM
I'm going to go against the grain here and advocate check-calling.
Some hand reading(feel free to correct anythnig that looks amiss):
1) he raised preflop on the button. His hand range is very wide here, any A, K, most Qs, any pair, any connector, any suited 1 or 2 gapper. He didn't 4bet, so 99+ and AK-AT, KQs become much less likely.
2) he called the flop.
Likely hands: anything with an 8(K8, 78o, 58s), any PP (smaller than 99 b/c he'd cap bigger than TT+) an Ace that is slowplaying, and unpaired hands with 6 outs like QJ, T9, KQ.
3) he called the turn.
Likely hands: anything with an 8, any PP. An ace now becomes much less likely because he'd raise here most of the time. Any hand with a Q will call. TJ has a double gutter and will call. Hands like KJo which have 1 overcard to our nines, and a gutshot, may or may not call, depending on how frustrated he is.
Since he's aggressive, I check-call the river expecting to snap off a bluff from an 8 or PP more than 1 time in 7. I don't like value-betting as much because this is a scary board and he may fold an 8 or PP given all the overs.
Surf
Here's a pokerstove for his likely range of hands, given my deductions:
Board: Ac Ad 8h Qs Js
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.3938 % 37.39% 00.00% { 99 }
Hand 2: 62.6062 % 62.61% 00.00% { 66-22, KTs+, K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s, 98s, 86s+, A3o-A2o, KTo+, Q8o+, JTo, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
aba20
07-12-2005, 04:01 PM
I agree with surf, check calling is correct. He could easily have an eight.
This was more in line with my thinking except that as he had been giving up pretty easily in the past to my threebets I thought the flop call was much more likely to be an 8 or small pp. And he was agressive enough that I doubt he could have resisted raising the turn with an ace so I actually bet this river thinking it was a value bet. I was fortunatly called by 22, but I wasnt sure about it afterwards and after reading most of the replies maybe this was foolish.
Grisgra
07-12-2005, 04:10 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I actually bet this river thinking it was a value bet. I was fortunatly called by 22, but I wasnt sure about it afterwards and after reading most of the replies maybe this was foolish.
[/ QUOTE ]
Or maybe not. The Q and J look scary, but he'd have to call your flop bet with KJ or KQ or somesuch. Putting him on a pocket pair or 8 seems to me to be just as likely as a calldown with one of those hands. I think that check-folding is giving up a bit too easily against this guy (though I don't know that I've have had the balls to value-bet here. NH.)
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