Craps

[bosulli]

I am having a debate with a non-gambling co-worker about craps.

He believes that betting the “don’t pass line” is better odds than then the “pass line” line. I have always believed they are the same odds.

I could figure it out if I remembered the rules, but I have not played craps since I discovered poker. Can anyone help me out with the odds?

[MickeyHoldem]

The pass line wins ~49.29% of the time and loses ~50.71%
this gives the house a 1.41% edge

The don't pass line wins less... ~47.93% and loses ~49.29%
because the don't pass line pushes on a 12... the house edge is only ~1.36%

this makes the don't pass line a slightly better wager.

[PE101]

MickeyHoldem is right.

In my opionion, it's more fun to bet with the table.

I'll give up the small difference to not be the bad guy at the table. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[shday]

[ QUOTE ]
The pass line wins ~49.29% of the time and loses ~50.71% this gives the house a 1.41% edge
The don't pass line wins less... ~47.93% and loses ~49.29% because the don't pass line pushes on a 12... the house edge is only ~1.36%
this makes the don't pass line a slightly better wager.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't think there was that much of a difference. Check out the rec.gambling FAQ:

http://www.conjelco.com/faq/craps.html

It gives 1.4141% and 1.4026% for pass and don't pass, respectively.

[MickeyHoldem]

Yes, my calculation for the don't pass is off... Don't pass should win 949/1925 for 0.492987 and a house edge of 1.402597%

Quick replies with 2 kids screaming for more fruit loops should be avoided.

[SheetWise]

But you have failed to adjust expectation for the buying or laying of odds. Since we know the game has a negative expectation, our optimal strategy is to minimize loss. If you can minimize expected loss based on handle by a factor of 2, it makes other variables (such as dealer error) more interesting (strategically).

SheetWise

[bosulli]

That answers my question. If you are not into splitting atoms, then the odds are the same.

Appreciate the quality info, and sorry for my belated appreciation.

[SheetWise]

I saw your post come up again -
I think it's worth noting (after reading comments made two weeks ago) that while expectations are very close -- and it may be more fun to be on the front side -- dealers will make many, many more errors on the back side. Especially rookies. Reducing your expectation by 2/3 when laying double odds -- you get to about .48 -- if you can get one error per hour, the game can have a positive expectation. With 3-4 players per side, no boxman, and an inside stick -- sometimes you can get 5-10 errors per hour. Throw in a few two ways after the first error, and the rate sometimes increases (on the back side - because it is far less obvious).