Should I bother calling this flop all-in w/ AA?

[ryanghall]

Empire 200NL full ring. Player A (29/6/4.5 after 34 hands) has $108, Player B (56/8/0 after 36 hands) has $97 and I have them both covered.

I get A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif in EMP

UTG calls, 1 fold, I raise to $8. Player A calls. Player B calls. 5 folds and UTG calls.

Flop (4 players) is T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG checks, I bet $33. Player A calls. Player B pushes. UTG folds. I push.

Reasonable or should I have just let it go?

[imported_anacardo]

Being laid 2:1 against a superLAG with aces is a +EV call. You're probably coinflipping at worst here.

[FreakDaddy]

I'm not loving it, but I think you're Ok here a decent amount of the time. If it was player A pushing, then I may lay the hand down, but this all depends on previous reads as well.

[xorbie]

Is that 0 his flop agression? Because if so that changes this a lot. You are getting rediculously good odds though, so against two pair this looks fine.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
Is that 0 his flop agression? Because if so that changes this a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in 36 hands, it doesn't.

[srm80]

he didnt have JdKd did he?

[ryanghall]

Player A had TT
Player B had Q2d

B took it on the river with a flush.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is that 0 his flop agression? Because if so that changes this a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in 36 hands, it doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's VPIP 56, that means he's seen 18+ hands. Never once betting or raising in 18 hands. What does that tell you?

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is that 0 his flop agression? Because if so that changes this a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in 36 hands, it doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's VPIP 56, that means he's seen 18+ hands. Never once betting or raising in 18 hands. What does that tell you?

[/ QUOTE ]

No that can be misleading. He may have bet all 18 hands and never once called. Since 18/0 = 0, that is what will show up as the aggression factor. You need at least one call in there to get an agression factor > 0.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is that 0 his flop agression? Because if so that changes this a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in 36 hands, it doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's VPIP 56, that means he's seen 18+ hands. Never once betting or raising in 18 hands. What does that tell you?

[/ QUOTE ]

No that can be misleading. He may have bet all 18 hands and never once called. Since 18/0 = 0, that is what will show up as the aggression factor. You need at least one call in there to get an agression factor > 0.

[/ QUOTE ]

And which do you think is more likely?

[jhall23]

I was just giving an example to point out how misleading the stat is with so few hands and that we can't conclude that he has never bet or raised post flop by that stat.

Honestly if anything I would bet he has bet at least some of hands he has been in post flop, but regardless if he still has a 0 that means he is probably typically not getting involved much post flop.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's VPIP 56, that means he's seen 18+ hands. Never once betting or raising in 18 hands. What does that tell you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say 18 flops seen (since you can put money in preflop and not see a flop). With a wide starting range, he could expect to flop TP maybe three times.

So one of those three was a monotone flop, and one was TP on 236 and check-folded to the preflop raiser, and on the third he actually bet out but his one bet is concealed by rounding error and the 15 calls he made in the same period of time.

And there is is: a "perfect" zero AF, all from perfectly normal and un-mouselike play. You could just as easily theorize that he's a TAG frustrated by a wave of dead cards and lashing out with nothing.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think if he's pushing against a preflop raiser AND a caller, he has you beat here most of the time. However, you only need to call another $60 into a $185 pot. So you only need to be ahead 25% of the time. The guy seems loose passive, but you don't have a lot of hands on him. Are you ahead here 25% of the time? Close. I haven't played in that game and I haven't played full ring in a while. In the NL100 6max on Party, I say you are ahead around 30-40% of the time, FWIW. You would have a much better estimate for the NL200 FR on UB.