1000 to 1 favor and lost! [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

bad_beat_magnet

07-12-2005, 03:14 AM

Poker sites are rigged! I ended up going all in with pocket aces and lost to pocket 2's. Here's how it went. On the flop comes A k 8. Then the turn comes 2. The river................you guessed it...............2. He cought runner-runner 2 to make 4 of a kind. On the flop he had a .1% chance of winning. He was a 1000 to 1 under-dog. Now tell me that online poker is not rigged. Thank you

x2ski

07-12-2005, 03:16 AM

Holy [censored] [censored]-nuggets, you're right... Online poker is rigged.

Kirg

07-12-2005, 03:18 AM

You realize 1 in a 1000 shots will actually happen once in a thousand right?

bandfan

07-12-2005, 03:19 AM

im convinced

timprov

07-12-2005, 03:24 AM

I didn't realize there were poker sites in the Discworld.

imported_CaseClosed326

07-12-2005, 03:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you

[/ QUOTE ]

You're welcome. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

nervous

07-12-2005, 03:30 AM

Whew. I've won the last 999 times I've had my opponent down to a 1000 to 1 shot.

Thanks for pointing this out or I would have thought that online poker was rigged.

bad_beat_magnet

07-12-2005, 03:38 AM

So your saying this is ok? Like its not the worst beat in poker ever? Think about it its like lining up 1000 boxes and all but 1 has a ball inside. If you pick the one without the ball you die. Ok well I guess I'm dead

popeye18

07-12-2005, 03:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Think about it its like lining up 1000 boxes and all but 1 has a ball inside. If you pick the one without the ball you die. Ok well I guess I'm dead

[/ QUOTE ]

OOOOHHHHHH, now i get it! Its rigged.

rusty JEDI

07-12-2005, 03:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok well I guess I'm dead

[/ QUOTE ]

We can hope.

rJ

bandfan

07-12-2005, 03:43 AM

x2ski

07-12-2005, 03:48 AM

Kirg

07-12-2005, 03:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So your saying this is ok? Like its not the worst beat in poker ever? Think about it its like lining up 1000 boxes and all but 1 has a ball inside. If you pick the one without the ball you die. Ok well I guess I'm dead

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying in the long run you will be up +998 lives.

Bad beat? yes. Proof it's rigged? no. I'd be more worried if 1 in 1000 shots never happened. People win the lottery at a million to one odds...the lottery is rigged.

bigalt

07-12-2005, 03:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So your saying this is ok? Like its not the worst beat in poker ever? Think about it its like lining up 1000 boxes and all but 1 has a ball inside. If you pick the one without the ball you die. Ok well I guess I'm dead

[/ QUOTE ]

it would be way less of a pain in the ass to just put the ball in one of the boxes, and if you pick the one WITH the ball you're dead.

or just have party's RNG pick a number for you.

Dynasty

07-12-2005, 03:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So your saying this is ok? Like its not the worst beat in poker ever? Think about it its like lining up 1000 boxes and all but 1 has a ball inside. If you pick the one without the ball you die. Ok well I guess I'm dead

[/ QUOTE ]

It is the worst beat in poker statistically.

But, it's happened to me in a live game at Mandalay Bay. I had KK. My opponent had 94o. The flop was K,7,4. My opponent won the showdown.

boondockst

07-12-2005, 04:25 AM

I'm starting to believe it really IS rigged...I mean this is like playing russian roulette and losing....wtf?

***** Hand History for Game 2350752289 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $5 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13864775 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Tuesday, July 12, 04:23:40 EDT 2005
Table Table 35263 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 9: MorBakTal ( $1440 )
Seat 2: dookie707 ( $2705 )
Seat 8: manhost ( $1735 )
Seat 3: Frenchman333 ( $615 )
Seat 10: Andy_WA ( $710 )
Seat 5: BroknHeart78 ( $795 )
Trny:13864775 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to manhost [ Qc Qh ]
manhost calls [30].
MorBakTal folds.
Andy_WA calls [30].
dookie707 folds.
Frenchman333 calls [15].
BroknHeart78 raises [115].
manhost is all-In [1705]
Andy_WA folds.
Frenchman333 folds.
BroknHeart78 is all-In [650]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, 5c, 8c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9s ]
BroknHeart78 shows [ 9c, 9h ] three of a kind, nines.
manhost shows [ Qc, Qh ] a pair of queens.
manhost wins 940 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of queens.
BroknHeart78 wins 1650 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, nines.

Mason Hellmuth

07-12-2005, 04:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
or just have party's RNG pick a number for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

But Party's RNG is rigged. Did you even read the original post?

Mr_J

07-12-2005, 04:28 AM

"It is the worst beat in poker statistically."

How about flopping quads only to lose to a royal on the river?

Kirg

07-12-2005, 04:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
"It is the worst beat in poker statistically."

How about flopping quads only to lose to a royal on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Same exact odds, 1000 to 1. Both require the same type of runner-runner. (1 of 2 outs on turn, 1 of 1 out on river)

randomstumbl

07-12-2005, 04:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So your saying this is ok? Like its not the worst beat in poker ever? Think about it its like lining up 1000 boxes and all but 1 has a ball inside. If you pick the one without the ball you die. Ok well I guess I'm dead

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, you're such a drama queen. It's 989:1.

Also, by your logic my kitchen table is rigged.

Kirg

07-12-2005, 04:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So your saying this is ok? Like its not the worst beat in poker ever? Think about it its like lining up 1000 boxes and all but 1 has a ball inside. If you pick the one without the ball you die. Ok well I guess I'm dead

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, you're such a drama queen. It's 989:1.

Also, by your logic my kitchen table is rigged.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your kitchen table doesn't have a ball in it? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

randomstumbl

07-12-2005, 04:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How about flopping quads only to lose to a royal on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if that somehow feels like it's a metaphysically worse beat, but it's the same damn odds: 989:1

timprov

07-12-2005, 04:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]

It is the worst beat in Hold'em statistically.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

randomstumbl

07-12-2005, 04:45 AM

I'm just smiling thinking of having my (Kc Qc) Jc Tc 9c x (x) go down in flames to (2c 7h) Th Jh Qh Kh (Ah).

What would that be, 22099:1? Man, that'd be great.

Edited to give the correct odds.

Mr_J

07-12-2005, 04:49 AM

Yeh I wasn't thinking when I said that.

Freudian

07-12-2005, 08:35 AM

Would it have made you feel better if the cards came 2K8 2 A?

What order the cards come in when the players are all-in preflop is irrelevant.

PygmyHero

07-12-2005, 08:42 AM

TJ Cloutier tells a story of a pretty bad beat. I think he had TT and Al Krux had KK (or similar - point is, pair versus overpair). They get all-in PF. We all know Al is 4:1, right?

Well, here's the thing. Another person at the table also had TT, meaning TJ is drawing extremely thin (can only win with a freak straight, I'm not sure how the suits were though). But due to a misdeal on the part of the dealer, everyone's hole cards (save Al's and TJ's) were added to the deck, the whole thing was re-shuffled, and then the board was dealt.

TJ ended up winning by making quad tens.

kiddj

07-12-2005, 08:46 AM

Preflop: With the worst case scenario (where the 22 have the same suit as the AA), AA wins 82.9% of the time. It sucks, but it's far from an impossibility.

This weekend, I got all-in preflop with JJ against KK. I caught a J on the flop and another on the river. The odds are basically the same as your AA vs 22. I'm not rigged. I swear!!! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Lestat

07-12-2005, 08:49 AM

I normally don't tell bad beat stories, but maybe this will make you feel better about online. I was actually involved in two of these hands within 5 hours of each other in a LIVE room!!

Hand #1 - Flop was JJT. I had 22 and beat out JT. 5 hours later...

Hand #2 - Flop was AT9. I had TT and lost to 55.

Now here's the real kick in the nuts.. Hand #1 I was screwing around with a friend of mine playing in a 5-10 game waiting for 80-160. The guy with the JT was so bad, not only did he check the flop, but he didn't even raise me on the river!

Hand #2 was at 80-160 and my opponent with 55 went 4 bets on every street, putting the 4th bet in himself!

Luv2DriveTT

07-12-2005, 08:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So your saying this is ok? Like its not the worst beat in poker ever? Think about it its like lining up 1000 boxes and all but 1 has a ball inside. If you pick the one without the ball you die. Ok well I guess I'm dead

[/ QUOTE ]

It is the worst beat in poker statistically.

But, it's happened to me in a live game at Mandalay Bay. I had KK. My opponent had 94o. The flop was K,7,4. My opponent won the showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mandalay Bay is rigged. Everybody knows that.

PS: Since when did you discuss poker /images/graemlins/wink.gif

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

Action Scott

07-12-2005, 09:20 AM

Live poker is rigged... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Mike Haven

07-12-2005, 10:12 AM

As you are giving details after an event, I will too.

You would also have lost to AA KK 88 55 44 QJs QJ J7s J7 76s or 76. It doesn't come close to a bad beat in an all in situation where the 5 centre cards will be involved.

bad_beat_magnet

07-12-2005, 10:57 AM

I'm not saying that it was bad beat pre flop, after the flop it was bad.

Freudian

07-12-2005, 11:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying that it was bad beat pre flop, after the flop it was bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying the sequence of the five cards after all the money is in the pot is important? Why?

If you do, I suggest you close your eyes for the 4 seconds it takes for the board to fill when all-in preflop. Then you take a peek. You will have much less "bad beats" then.

Offsprung

07-12-2005, 11:30 AM

OldLearner

07-12-2005, 11:46 AM

I assume this is the worst beat you have had in your illustrious 2 month poker career.

Sound about right Junior?

Hope you didn't get grounded when mommy heard all that foul language coming from your room.

pshabi

07-12-2005, 11:47 AM

HA!

I thought you were talking about me!!!!

I bubbled someone in a SNG yesterday pf with 22 vs. AA.

I hit a runner runner wheel though.

Feel better?

Amid Cent

07-12-2005, 11:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Whew. I've won the last 999 times I've had my opponent down to a 1000 to 1 shot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you'd better be careful. This means you are guaranteed to lose the next time. And don't pick any boxes with balls in them.

coffeecrazy1

07-12-2005, 12:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Whew. I've won the last 999 times I've had my opponent down to a 1000 to 1 shot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you'd better be careful. This means you are guaranteed to lose the next time. And don't pick any boxes with balls in them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologize for the following statement: the same can be said of women.

Overdrive

07-12-2005, 12:11 PM

(Reply 1) Yeah man I know how you feel. Last night I had one of my bots lose when his AA lost to some 'idiot' who limped in from last position with 1010 in a hand that had 8 players seeing the flop. And this nutcase hit another 10 on the flop! Crazy right? Anyway after that I reprogrammed my bot so he could read the minds of all the players at the table so this wouldn't happen again.

(Reply 2) This was not really a bad beat.

(Reply 3) Yeah, so who gives a rat's ass anyway.

Uglyowl

07-12-2005, 12:21 PM

Haven't you seen the Bill Fillmaff episodes. Come to think of it, did you steal it from that?

kiddj

07-12-2005, 12:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Whew. I've won the last 999 times I've had my opponent down to a 1000 to 1 shot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you'd better be careful. This means you are guaranteed to lose the next time. And don't pick any boxes with balls in them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologize for the following statement: the same can be said of women.

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

bobbyi

07-12-2005, 12:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It is the worst beat in poker statistically.

[/ QUOTE ]
At the point where the money went in, he had AA vs. 22 preflop. Losing that matchup is hardly the worst beat in poker. The fact that an ace happened to come on the flop is irrelevent to how bad his "beat" was because that was after the betting was down. He got in with AA and lost to 22. Happens to everyone.

Greg J

07-12-2005, 12:34 PM

This must be for real. This is too weak to be a troll.

Yeah, this kind of loss has happened to us all. Get over it.

Sponger15SB

07-12-2005, 12:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just smiling thinking of having my (Kc Qc) Jc Tc 9c x (x) go down in flames to (2c 7h) Th Jh Qh Kh (Ah).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the worst beat in all of poker is something like a pat king high straight flush in 5 card draw losing to a royal flush where the Villian draws all 5 cards?

I'm not sure what the odds there are though....

CORed

07-12-2005, 12:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now tell me that online poker is not rigged.

[/ QUOTE ]
Online poker is not rigged.

Sandwich

07-12-2005, 01:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I think the worst beat in all of poker is something like a pat king high straight flush in 5 card draw losing to a royal flush where the Villian draws all 5 cards?

I'm not sure what the odds there are though....

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd have to put a lot of balls into a lot of boxes to analogize that one!

Phill S

07-12-2005, 01:06 PM

At least it didnt happen to you at the WSOP (http://www.billrini.com/index.php/2004/05/27/stop-your-whining).

Its a year old now, but its still my favourite 'stfu your beat is nothing' type story.

Phill

wdcbooks

07-12-2005, 01:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't realize there were poker sites in the Discworld.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent literary allusion.

Hellmouth

07-12-2005, 01:31 PM

Grinder

07-12-2005, 01:53 PM

I one session of Poker
Omaha 8b yesterday i had Str8 Flush, Quad 4's Quad J's and then in a Tourny i opened with Quad j's got two all in callers WHoo Hoo

Sandwich

07-12-2005, 02:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I one session of Poker
Omaha 8b yesterday i had Str8 Flush, Quad 4's Quad J's and then in a Tourny i opened with Quad j's got two all in callers WHoo Hoo

[/ QUOTE ]

But did you win with those hands?

jman220

07-12-2005, 04:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just smiling thinking of having my (Kc Qc) Jc Tc 9c x (x) go down in flames to (2c 7h) Th Jh Qh Kh (Ah).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the worst beat in all of poker is something like a pat king high straight flush in 5 card draw losing to a royal flush where the Villian draws all 5 cards?

I'm not sure what the odds there are though....

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be off here, but I'm thinking it's 1/42*1/41*1/40*1/39*1/38 = 9.79 e -9 (I'm using windows calculator and am too lazy to convert).

sonny black

07-12-2005, 04:13 PM

yes it must be rigged because a similar incident has happened to me. I just looked over my last 45000 hands in pt, and KAPOW, something similar happened about 38 times.

jman220

07-12-2005, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yes it must be rigged because a similar incident has happened to me. I just looked over my last 45000 hands in pt, and KAPOW, something similar happened about 38 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I do appreciate the humor, and 1 in 1,000 shots certainly do happen, it is a misunderstanding of probability and statistics to think that a 1 in 1,000 shot bad beat will happen around 45 times in 45,000 hands. It actually will happen far far less, and the math involved is a lot more complicated than just, oh its a 1 in 1,000 shot so it will happen once every thousand hands. If you really have had 38 of these in 45,000 hands you are running ridiculously bad (I'm sure your post was just a joke though).

Derek in NYC

07-12-2005, 05:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm starting to believe it really IS rigged...I mean this is like playing russian roulette and losing....wtf?

Dealt to manhost [ Qc Qh ]

manhost calls [30].

BroknHeart78 raises [115].

manhost is all-In [1705]

BroknHeart78 is all-In [650]

** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, 5c, 8c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9s ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I find it amusing when people think it is a "bad beat" because "he hit his set on the river" when both players were all in before the flop.

PS--you should not limp-reraise with queens.

CountDuckula

07-12-2005, 05:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes it must be rigged because a similar incident has happened to me. I just looked over my last 45000 hands in pt, and KAPOW, something similar happened about 38 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I do appreciate the humor, and 1 in 1,000 shots certainly do happen, it is a misunderstanding of probability and statistics to think that a 1 in 1,000 shot bad beat will happen around 45 times in 45,000 hands. It actually will happen far far less, and the math involved is a lot more complicated than just, oh its a 1 in 1,000 shot so it will happen once every thousand hands. If you really have had 38 of these in 45,000 hands you are running ridiculously bad (I'm sure your post was just a joke though).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I'm not a mathematician, but I always thought I was decent enough at math and probability. I thought that given enough trials, a 1/1000 shot would occur roughly N times out of N thousand; it might be a little more or a little less. Could you explain what you're talking about, please? I'm prepared to accept that my understanding is incorrect, but I'd like to see some kind of support for your assertion.

-Mike

CountDuckula

07-12-2005, 05:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Poker sites are rigged! I ended up going all in with pocket aces and lost to pocket 2's. Here's how it went. On the flop comes A k 8. Then the turn comes 2. The river................you guessed it...............2. He cought runner-runner 2 to make 4 of a kind. On the flop he had a .1% chance of winning. He was a 1000 to 1 under-dog. Now tell me that online poker is not rigged. Thank you

[/ QUOTE ]

Gabyyyy? Is that you?

-Mike

Derek in NYC

07-12-2005, 05:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How about flopping quads only to lose to a royal on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if that somehow feels like it's a metaphysically worse beat, but it's the same damn odds: 989:1

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think it is the worst beat in Holdem. Pocket pair vs. identical pocket pair with four running cards of the same suit has to be worse.

timprov

07-12-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

While I do appreciate the humor, and 1 in 1,000 shots certainly do happen, it is a misunderstanding of probability and statistics to think that a 1 in 1,000 shot bad beat will happen around 45 times in 45,000 hands. It actually will happen far far less, and the math involved is a lot more complicated than just, oh its a 1 in 1,000 shot so it will happen once every thousand hands. If you really have had 38 of these in 45,000 hands you are running ridiculously bad (I'm sure your post was just a joke though).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I'm not a mathematician, but I always thought I was decent enough at math and probability. I thought that given enough trials, a 1/1000 shot would occur roughly N times out of N thousand; it might be a little more or a little less. Could you explain what you're talking about, please? I'm prepared to accept that my understanding is incorrect, but I'd like to see some kind of support for your assertion.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

It would happen 1 in 1000 times you were in this situation. but for it to happen 1 time every thousand hands, you'd need to be a 999-1 favorite every hand.

CountDuckula

07-12-2005, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It would happen 1 in 1000 times you were in this situation. but for it to happen 1 time every thousand hands, you'd need to be a 999-1 favorite every hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah-hah, I get it. Thanks!

-Mike

MarkGritter

07-12-2005, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think the worst beat in all of poker is something like a pat king high straight flush in 5 card draw losing to a royal flush where the Villian draws all 5 cards?

I'm not sure what the odds there are though....

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be off here, but I'm thinking it's 1/42*1/41*1/40*1/39*1/38 = 9.79 e -9 (I'm using windows calculator and am too lazy to convert).

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite, because you don't need to draw the cards in order, and there is more than one royal flush left.

If all three remaining royal flushes are live then the odds are 3/(42C5) = 0.00000353 (about 1 in 283,000.)

If only one is live then it's more like one in 851,000.

Only one in a million, not one in one hundred million.

Innocentius

07-12-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just smiling thinking of having my (Kc Qc) Jc Tc 9c x (x) go down in flames to (2c 7h) Th Jh Qh Kh (Ah).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the worst beat in all of poker is something like a pat king high straight flush in 5 card draw losing to a royal flush where the Villian draws all 5 cards?

I'm not sure what the odds there are though....

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be off here, but I'm thinking it's 1/42*1/41*1/40*1/39*1/38 = 9.79 e -9 (I'm using windows calculator and am too lazy to convert).

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think your calculation gives the probability of the [/b]first[/b] card being the Ah, the [/b]second[/b] being the Kh, and so on. The first card can be any of 15 cards (all face cards (plus ace) of suits that you don't have). The second can be any of the remaining four face cards of that suit, and so on, so you get something like (15/42)(4/41)(3/40)(2/39)(1/38) which is approximately 3.5 e-6, or 1 in abour 280,000.

PITTM

07-12-2005, 06:03 PM

Sightless

07-12-2005, 06:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't realize there were poker sites in the Discworld.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol i love discworld -_-

dogmeat

07-12-2005, 06:38 PM

Do you understand what 1000 to 1 means?

FWIW, I've played over 500,000 hands online in the last two years, and I only remember taking a 990-1 beating once, and another one that I think was about 750-1. So, it happens, and you probably won't see it again in many years.

Cheer up, you're still alive, it wasn't for more than a few bucks.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif