I puked a little and folded my full house [Archive]

bobdibble

07-12-2005, 02:39 AM

I've only played about an orbit with villain. So far, he seems like a super passive calling station. Imagine the most passive guy you have ever seen, then cut his agression in half. He even failed to raise the river with the nuts once because I don't think he realized he had it.

Villian has also cold called 2 on the flop and called down with K high before, so when I first value bet the river I was expecting to get called with some crap hand....

Party Poker (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, rest fold.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO folds.

River: T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises!!!, Hero folds.

ike

07-12-2005, 02:41 AM

It wasn't a very impressive full house anyway.

pokerhooker

07-12-2005, 02:48 AM

Why bet the river? If he calls, you're beat. If you check, although I know you said he was passive, he might bluff.

bobdibble

07-12-2005, 02:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why bet the river? If he calls, you're beat. If you check, although I know you said he was passive, he might bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read my read? He could easily call with an A, K, or even a Q here. Easy value bet against this opp, imo.

bobdibble

07-12-2005, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It wasn't a very impressive full house anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was until the river /images/graemlins/smile.gif

There's no chance a calling station is making a move w/ A high, is there?

pokerhooker

07-12-2005, 03:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There's no chance a calling station is making a move w/ A high, is there?

[/ QUOTE ]

A single orbit is fairly quick to get a complete read on a person. You saying this leads me to believe there were still some unknowns.

I just think you're trying to squeeze too much value out of the river bet hoping he'll call with nothing.

bobdibble

07-12-2005, 03:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I just think you're trying to squeeze too much value out of the river bet hoping he'll call with nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, I saw him cold call with K6s preflop, then call a limp reraise, then cold call on something like an A29 rainbow flop and call down the limp-reraiser, even calling a bet on the river with his King high.... This guy will call with worse hands on the river. This guy was hemoraging chips and was busted in about 5 orbits.

Senor Choppy

07-12-2005, 03:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, I saw him cold call etc. etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Next time, just post with the title 'Check out this awesome laydown/bad beat' instead of pretending to ask for advice.

bobdibble

07-12-2005, 04:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dude, I saw him cold call etc. etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Next time, just post with the title 'Check out this awesome laydown/bad beat' instead of pretending to ask for advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

heh.. actually, while I was proud of the laydown, I'm serious about wondering if a player this bad could have decided to randomly raise.

You know those players that raise when it is clear that everyone is playing the board in the weird hope that someone will fold. I started wondering if maybe this was one of those occasions.

I think this fold is probably correct, but am seriously asking if someone this bad could have randomly raised enough for me to have called.

As for the part you quoted, it was the discussion about the merits of value betting the river, which seemed contraversial at least to one poster. I still believe that against this opp, value betting is right.

LarsVegas

07-12-2005, 04:53 AM

Actually I think this looks very strange. From your description, he probably wouldn't raise a Ten here (although that is probably the most likely still). And no matter how passive he is, I think you would've heard from a Jack prior to the river.

lars

toke

07-12-2005, 10:13 AM

Your river valuebet looks fine. I'd probably go for the crying call hoping to catch a random raise. He could be easily raising this river with 88, 99, KQ and even smaller pocket pairs if he is as bad as you describe him. It's very close though.

Senor Choppy

07-12-2005, 10:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably go for the crying call hoping to catch a random raise. He could be easily raising this river with 88, 99, KQ and even smaller pocket pairs if he is as bad as you describe him.

[/ QUOTE ]

His description of the opponent in question:

"I've only played about an orbit with villain. So far, he seems like a super passive calling station. Imagine the most passive guy you have ever seen, then cut his agression in half. He even failed to raise the river with the nuts once because I don't think he realized he had it."

ike

07-12-2005, 11:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I've only played about an orbit with villain.

[/ QUOTE ]
Seems a bit early to start making big laydowns.

DpR

07-12-2005, 12:36 PM

I never really understand these posts. I call ALL retards. That said, if you are certain you are beat it would be dumb to call. That said, maybe he misclicked. Its a good size pot, you probably save yourself $60, but here you are wondering if you folded a decent pot to the biggest moron at the table. Why put yourself in these situations?

bobdibble

07-12-2005, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I never really understand these posts. I call ALL retards. That said, if you are certain you are beat it would be dumb to call. That said, maybe he misclicked. Its a good size pot, you probably save yourself $60, but here you are wondering if you folded a decent pot to the biggest moron at the table. Why put yourself in these situations?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been calling river raises and crs too much recently, so I'm trying to be better about auto-calling on the river.

arod15

07-12-2005, 01:20 PM

Good fold tough board. Im puking just reading this..... I couldnt see what you bet so i cant say if you nbet to little on the flop and turn i assume you didnt or shoudl i....

bobdibble

07-12-2005, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Good fold tough board. Im puking just reading this..... I couldnt see what you bet so i cant say if you nbet to little on the flop and turn i assume you didnt or shoudl i....

[/ QUOTE ]

This was a limit hand, so I bet, well, 1SB and 1BB on the flop and turn. I would have gladdly put in more on the flop and turn if I could have. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Did you mistakenly wander in from the mid-high NL forum? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

MrStretchie

07-12-2005, 02:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've only played about an orbit with villain. So far, he seems like a super passive calling station. Imagine the most passive guy you have ever seen, then cut his agression in half. He even failed to raise the river with the nuts once because I don't think he realized he had it.

Villian has also cold called 2 on the flop and called down with K high before, so when I first value bet the river I was expecting to get called with some crap hand....

Party Poker (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, rest fold.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO folds.

River: T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises!!!, Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya.. after one orbit, I'd definitely be calling. I absolutely agree with your river value bet given the read though. I don't see why it isn't obvious that if a guy has called down with *absolutely nothing* multiple times in a single orbit, having almost Anything on the river is worth a value bet. And in this case, there are only 4 cards out there that beat you. A decent opponent would likely have one. An opponent with any random two cards most likely (by far) doesn't.
(Of course, if a decent opponent Didn't have one, he would be far more likely to bluff-raise, as he would recognize what was going on..)

So when Mr. Passive raises, you're probably beat. And if he was Mr. Passive for like 10 orbits, I'd fold this. But as it is, he's more like Mr. P. Moron. So I could easily see him not raising decent (or even nut!) hands for fear of people folding or something, but then raising a really scary board, expecting people to fold. (Or something.)

Value bet, call.

ike

07-12-2005, 02:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I call ALL retards.

[/ QUOTE ]
You sound tilted. What a dumb idea.

stinkypete

07-12-2005, 03:08 PM

when a terrible player who doesn't even know when he has the nuts and won't raise with extremely strong hands puts in a seemingly random raise like that, there's a very good chance he suddenly decided it would be a good idea to bluff.

really bad, passive players don't know how to bet and raise their hands for value, but that doesn't mean they never bluff.

i think laying this down is very bad, unless you have a strong read on the player never bluffing.

SoBeDude

07-12-2005, 04:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I just think you're trying to squeeze too much value out of the river bet hoping he'll call with nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, I saw him cold call with K6s preflop, then call a limp reraise, then cold call on something like an A29 rainbow flop and call down the limp-reraiser, even calling a bet on the river with his King high.... This guy will call with worse hands on the river. This guy was hemoraging chips and was busted in about 5 orbits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, what exactly is the point of this thread? Is there a question somewhere or r u looking for pity?

-Scott

ike

07-12-2005, 04:14 PM

Dude, he's right that its a clear value bet against the opponent in question. And whether or not to call the c/r is a legit question. He folded and I'm not sure he should have.

MrStretchie

07-12-2005, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I just think you're trying to squeeze too much value out of the river bet hoping he'll call with nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, I saw him cold call with K6s preflop, then call a limp reraise, then cold call on something like an A29 rainbow flop and call down the limp-reraiser, even calling a bet on the river with his King high.... This guy will call with worse hands on the river. This guy was hemoraging chips and was busted in about 5 orbits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, what exactly is the point of this thread? Is there a question somewhere or r u looking for pity?

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the point not obvious? He was questioning the river fold, and it was a good question, as several posters, myself included, think it was a mistake.

Several replies also questioned the river bet, which at least means it's useful discussion, although I am very much not in that group.

Is there a point to your reply? Or are you just trying to add to your post count?

Turning Stone Pro

07-12-2005, 04:48 PM

Given your description of the villain, I hate the river card. Why bet into him? Why not check-call on the end? Let him potentially bluff with his A, and avoid the chance of, hypothetically speaking, a check-raise on the river when, as Lars points out, it looks a little weird?

TSP

MrStretchie

07-12-2005, 05:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Given your description of the villain, I hate the river card. Why bet into him? Why not check-call on the end? Let him potentially bluff with his A, and avoid the chance of, hypothetically speaking, a check-raise on the river when, as Lars points out, it looks a little weird?

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he's ultra-passive. OP's seen him call down absolutely nothing, including a river bet, several times in just a single orbit. Much more likely that he'll call with nothing than try to bluff. It's a value bet against a moron who's just as likely to have any two random cards as a t or j. It didn't work out that way, but I don't think that invalidates it..

bobdibble

07-12-2005, 06:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I just think you're trying to squeeze too much value out of the river bet hoping he'll call with nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, I saw him cold call with K6s preflop, then call a limp reraise, then cold call on something like an A29 rainbow flop and call down the limp-reraiser, even calling a bet on the river with his King high.... This guy will call with worse hands on the river. This guy was hemoraging chips and was busted in about 5 orbits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, what exactly is the point of this thread? Is there a question somewhere or r u looking for pity?

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you said this. The fold seems fairly contraversial. And as I posted early on, I started wondering if this was a variant of the "i play the board. raise!!!" type of move that some donks make.

bernie

07-12-2005, 08:36 PM

Given the way he played his hand, along with you have only 1 orbit with him, I'd call just out of curiousity even though I think I'm beat. It's tough to get that great a read on a player that soon for this type of situation even in a live game. His river raise looks odd. You'd likely have heard from the J on the turn unless he was trying to be sneaky and call his top 2 to the turn and jack it. Though many will raise top 2 on the flop and wait to the turn with sets. Then turned the FH making him want to slowplay it even more. Which is how some of these guys think.

Call it.

btw...does the preflop action "bet" mean you're raising or limping?

b

bobdibble

07-12-2005, 08:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
btw...does the preflop action "bet" mean you're raising or limping?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I raised. I don't always do it with 77, but I think I did in this case.

(The converter is broken, so I typed in the action by hand)

SoBeDude

07-13-2005, 02:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I just think you're trying to squeeze too much value out of the river bet hoping he'll call with nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, I saw him cold call with K6s preflop, then call a limp reraise, then cold call on something like an A29 rainbow flop and call down the limp-reraiser, even calling a bet on the river with his King high.... This guy will call with worse hands on the river. This guy was hemoraging chips and was busted in about 5 orbits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, what exactly is the point of this thread? Is there a question somewhere or r u looking for pity?

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the point not obvious? He was questioning the river fold, and it was a good question, as several posters, myself included, think it was a mistake.

Several replies also questioned the river bet, which at least means it's useful discussion, although I am very much not in that group.

Is there a point to your reply? Or are you just trying to add to your post count?

[/ QUOTE ]

regardless of what u may think, the point of my reply IS pretty obvious. I'm asking the poster what his question is, if he had one, or if it was a bad beat post and he's looking for pity.

Read the initial post again. there is no question anywhere. He makes no indication what feedback he is looking for...so I asked my question.

I'm not trying to imply there is no value to the post. In fact there are several interesting points here.

The river bet is horrible IMO, in spite of the opponent being an idiot.

-Scott

toke

07-13-2005, 03:58 AM

You have only observed him for an orbit. You have seen him misread his hand already. If you are good 9% of the time here you already make profit. I think he missclicks/missreads his hand or decides it's time to bluff atleast 9% of the time. No way I'm folding.

etizzle

07-13-2005, 04:46 AM

you must be kidding if you think that a bet here doesn't show profit.

On card frequency alone it is much more likely that he has A or K high here than a J or T, plus the fact that we haven't been raised yet in the hand seems to indicate that we are ahead.

if the idiot is possibly calling down with A or K high, than we are good at least the 67% of the time we need. This is an easy bet, even if we cannot fold to a raise.

bernie

07-13-2005, 04:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you must be kidding if you think that a bet here doesn't show profit.

On card frequency alone it is much more likely that he has A or K high here than a J or T, plus the fact that we haven't been raised yet in the hand seems to indicate that we are ahead.

if the idiot is possibly calling down with A or K high, than we are good at least the 67% of the time we need. This is an easy bet, even if we cannot fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gazzbut

07-13-2005, 05:07 AM

Maybe he had AT and was raising because he had three of a kind in which case your laydown doesnt look so great!!

toke

07-13-2005, 06:13 AM

Three of a kind is impossible holding on that board. This is Texas hold'em forum, not Omaha.

Gazzbut

07-13-2005, 06:26 AM

Lol! That will teach me to try and sneakily read the boards whilst im at work /images/graemlins/smile.gif

MrTeddyKGB

07-13-2005, 11:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Seems a bit early to start making big laydowns.

[/ QUOTE ]

astroglide

07-13-2005, 12:02 PM

77 isn't a boat here, it's an ace of trump. this is like saying "i puked a little and folded my pocket queens" on an AAKK2 board.

bobdibble

07-13-2005, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
77 isn't a boat here, it's an ace of trump. this is like saying "i puked a little and folded my pocket queens" on an AAKK2 board.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is 77 not a boat here? The board is double paired, but there are no trips on board. If villian doesn't have a J or a T, I have a boat and he has 2 pair.

Net Warrior

07-13-2005, 03:27 PM

That river card would certainly have made me sick to my stomach. I would have gone into check-call mode immediately.

MrStretchie

07-13-2005, 03:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
77 isn't a boat here, it's an ace of trump. this is like saying "i puked a little and folded my pocket queens" on an AAKK2 board.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is 77 not a boat here? The board is double paired, but there are no trips on board. If villian doesn't have a J or a T, I have a boat and he has 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to respond the same way.. but really his analogy is quite apt.
In the 77 case, you start with a very good hand, and end up with one where only 4 cards can beat you, but they're the only 4 cards your opponent is likely to have.
In the QQ case... it's exactly the same. Instead of jacks and tens beating you, it's aces and kings.. but still there's only 4 cards out there that can beat you. (Although now also two that can tie..)

Of course, technically it *is* still a boat.. but the two cases are quite similar. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Although I'd say it's more like QQ on a KK2AA board..

SoBeDude

07-13-2005, 04:00 PM

a value bet on the river shows +EV when you're going to get called by a worse hand more than 50% of the time.

This is not the case here.

-Scott

TheWorstPlayer

07-13-2005, 04:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
a value bet on the river shows +EV when you're going to get called by a worse hand more than 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is only true if you're last to act. If you are first to act and are considering calling a river bet if you check, then the calculation is more complicated.

MrStretchie

07-13-2005, 04:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
a value bet on the river shows +EV when you're going to get called by a worse hand more than 50% of the time.

This is not the case here.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Um.. why not? Everything we've seen the opponent do so far says this is exactly the case here. There are only 4 cards out there that beat you. He calls down with almost any random two cards. The odds that he calls with a worse hand are >>50%. I don't understand how this is even remotely debatable..

SoBeDude

07-13-2005, 04:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a value bet on the river shows +EV when you're going to get called by a worse hand more than 50% of the time.

This is not the case here.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Um.. why not? Everything we've seen the opponent do so far says this is exactly the case here. There are only 4 cards out there that beat you. He calls down with almost any random two cards. The odds that he calls with a worse hand are >>50%. I don't understand how this is even remotely debatable..

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh come on people! what are you sniffing!??

he's had ONE orbit with this guy! this isn't 1000 hands, it's maybe 10 hands! And just because he called ONE hand down with K-high doesn't mean he's calling every hand down with no pair...it means he's done it once!

-Scott

MrStretchie

07-13-2005, 04:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Oh come on people! what are you sniffing!??

he's had ONE orbit with this guy! this isn't 1000 hands, it's maybe 10 hands! And just because he called ONE hand down with K-high doesn't mean he's calling every hand down with no pair...it means he's done it once!

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

"What am I sniffing" Hmm? Way to further devalue your opinion (who would've thought it possible?) by adding rudeness.

Still, I will try One More Time. He would call you with any ace, and almost certainly any king. There you go - > 50%. He could have 78 89 Ax KQ Q9 K9 plus a whole lot of other random [censored] if he thought you were bluffing. He's a Moron. You don't need 1000000 hands to tell someone's a moron when they cold call and call down with nothing and don't raise the nuts. Value bet.

SoBeDude

07-13-2005, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oh come on people! what are you sniffing!??

he's had ONE orbit with this guy! this isn't 1000 hands, it's maybe 10 hands! And just because he called ONE hand down with K-high doesn't mean he's calling every hand down with no pair...it means he's done it once!

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

"What am I sniffing" Hmm? Way to further devalue your opinion (who would've thought it possible?) by adding rudeness.

Still, I will try One More Time. He would call you with any ace, and almost certainly any king. There you go - > 50%. He could have 78 89 Ax KQ Q9 K9 plus a whole lot of other random [censored] if he thought you were bluffing. He's a Moron. You don't need 1000000 hands to tell someone's a moron when they cold call and call down with nothing and don't raise the nuts. Value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

The sniffing comment was meant as a joke. get a sense of humor.

as for the rest of the crap u spewed, dude where are u getting your facts?

I try one more time too. its been ONE orbit. you don't know he's calling down with all the crap you listed. How can you possibly say like it's fact, that: He would call you with any ace, and almost certainly any king. ??

And I said one thousand hands, not a million like you mentioned. And one orbit doesn't make him a moron.

-Scott

spoohunter

07-13-2005, 05:23 PM

Opponent has called down with K high on an ace high board... I would probably bet an ace for value on this board, let alone a boat (albeit a crappy one).

I call his raise. The not raising the river, with the nuts (was he closing the action?) does not make me fear his raises. It's not like he can have STRONGER than the nuts : ) It makes me think he doesn't know what he's doing, and that means I do not respect his bets.

I guess my point is, not raising the river with the nuts does not make me assume his raises mean strong hands. I think they are not related closely enough to make that assumption.

None the less, the pot is small, so folding isn't too bad. Every other decision in the hand was as I would make it.

MrStretchie

07-13-2005, 05:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

"What am I sniffing" Hmm? Way to further devalue your opinion (who would've thought it possible?) by adding rudeness.

Still, I will try One More Time. He would call you with any ace, and almost certainly any king. There you go - > 50%. He could have 78 89 Ax KQ Q9 K9 plus a whole lot of other random [censored] if he thought you were bluffing. He's a Moron. You don't need 1000000 hands to tell someone's a moron when they cold call and call down with nothing and don't raise the nuts. Value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

The sniffing comment was meant as a joke. get a sense of humor.

as for the rest of the crap u spewed, dude where are u getting your facts?

I try one more time too. its been ONE orbit. you don't know he's calling down with all the crap you listed. How can you possibly say like it's fact, that: He would call you with any ace, and almost certainly any king. ??

And I said one thousand hands, not a million like you mentioned. And one orbit doesn't make him a moron.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Fine. I didn't appreciate your joke, but I accept that's what it was.

I'm afraid you won't like mine either. If you think coldcalling then calling down with kx on an ace high board, AND failing to raise the nuts on the river in a single orbit doesn't make someone a moron... I'm afraid you may be a moron. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

tongni

07-13-2005, 06:12 PM

This is a really easy bet and a reasonably easy fold to raise.

bernie

07-13-2005, 06:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a really easy bet and a reasonably easy fold to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you putting him on that he'd play that way? Given the factors, this is much more easier of a call than a fold.

b

tongni

07-13-2005, 06:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What are you putting him on that he'd play that way? Given the factors, this is much more easier of a call than a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
So far, he seems like a super passive calling station. Imagine the most passive guy you have ever seen

[/ QUOTE ]

A jack or ten? Makes perfect sense given the action.

MrStretchie

07-13-2005, 07:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
What are you putting him on that he'd play that way? Given the factors, this is much more easier of a call than a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
So far, he seems like a super passive calling station. Imagine the most passive guy you have ever seen

[/ QUOTE ]

A jack or ten? Makes perfect sense given the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably, yes. But often enough not to call the raise? No way.. While (as I said earlier) his play over one orbit is enough to know that he'll call down random cards and quite likely doesn't have a jack or ten before he raised, it's not enough to know that he's so passive he'd never bluff. In fact, he might Only bet or raise when he IS bluffing.

To use the famous line, I'd have to say the line here is "Bet, and call a raise. And it's not even close."

Edit: OK, to be fair, the bet is not even close. The call is close.

etizzle

07-13-2005, 07:01 PM

you are so so wrong on this. Please think about this again.

If he calls down with any ace and any K, and never raises except when he has a J (two almost gauranteed assumptions) then when we bet and are called we are exactly a 67% favorite.

If KK or QQ are some possible holdings then we can win an even higher percentage of the time.

This is a very easy bet, I'm not sure what you dont understand about it. If he calls with K high on an A high board he SURELY SURELY SURELY calls down with K high and possibly Q high on a JJTTx board.

MrStretchie

07-13-2005, 07:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you are so so wrong on this. Please think about this again.

If he calls down with any ace and any K, and never raises except when he has a J (two almost gauranteed assumptions) then when we bet and are called we are exactly a 67% favorite.

If KK or QQ are some possible holdings then we can win an even higher percentage of the time.

This is a very easy bet, I'm not sure what you dont understand about it. If he calls with K high on an A high board he SURELY SURELY SURELY calls down with K high and possibly Q high on a JJTTx board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strongly agree with part 1 and disagree with part 2.

I think the key point here is: Just because he calls down with crap and doesn't raise good hands *doesn't mean* that he won't raise on a bluff. If he raises, he's *probably* got a jack or ten, but not the 91%+ of the time you need to make folding the right play. I don't think it's necessarily wrong, but it's definitely not an 'easy fold'. In fact, I think it would be more of a difficult call, especially given the information gained.

bernie

07-13-2005, 07:16 PM