KK 10/20

[SmileyEH]

Villian in the hand is 30/4 over 70 hands, with agg. numbers around 2. Is this ridiculously standard?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

-SmileyEH

[Argus]

I think this is an unfortunate call down. You have to put in 2.5 more BB to win 7.25 BB. I think you are good at least a third of the time and villain could be getting frisky hoping the flop missed you and he can push you off. The river bet scares me a little because if a thinking player makes it he has to be thinking about what hands will call his bet, and KK is certainly in the range. But even if villain was very sharp and you knew he wouldn't bet a hand likely to be beaten by your range of holdings, at this point the likelihood of a river bluff following up a semi-bluffed draw that missed dictates a call. So calling down is probably slightly +EV, and raising anywhere seems foolish since you'd rather worse hands keep at you. Can anyone make an argument for a turn raise for free showdown?

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
The river bet scares me a little because if a thinking player makes it he has to be thinking about what hands will call his bet, and KK is certainly in the range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see no indication that villain is a thinking player.

[damaniac]

The only reason to raise the turn is if he's likely to have JT or two diamonds and would pay another bet on the turn but not on the river if he misses. Those times need to be weighed against the times he either folds a hand that is drawing nearly dead or 3-bets us with a worse hand (since if he 3-bets us with a Q and we fold it costs us the same as calling down and seeing it at showdown, although it does cost us a chance at our 2-outer on the river). I'm mainly concerned with the first of those, that he'll have something like JJ/TT/A9/AK often enough that I don't really want him folding any of those hands given the pot size, certainly far more likely than he'll have a diamond draw (very unlikely given the flop action) or JT (not horribly likely given the player's stats and action either).

[oreogod]

Yeah, usually once he bets that river, thats where I still call, but usually give up hope. He has to be thinking u have some kind of good hand to call him down.

I dont think you can fold this any where, right? You are probably beat, but I can see other hands following through on the river. He's loose and decently aggressive. Preflop agro stat sucks though.

[Argus]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
The river bet scares me a little because if a thinking player makes it he has to be thinking about what hands will call his bet, and KK is certainly in the range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I see no indication that villain is a thinking player.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't either. I mention it mainly for completeness, and to emphasise that calling down is correct. I want other players to understand the thought process for evaluating similar situations.

[Evan]

Why the [censored] is the discussion here between calling and folding rather than calling and raising?

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Why the [censored] is the discussion here between calling and folding rather than calling and raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think a 9 pays off?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Why the [censored] is the discussion here between calling and folding rather than calling and raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

[toss]

I find it odd that villain would checkraise the flop with trips Qs. Don't think its third level thinking. Will villain pay off with a 9? Sure, donks play 10/20 too.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it odd that villain would checkraise the flop with trips Qs. Don't think its third level thinking. Will villain pay off with a 9? Sure, donks play 10/20 too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see a player that raises 5% raising a hand containing a 9 UTG that often at all. Raising did cross my mind, but the whole way ahead/way behind thing. . . This hand felt weird to play, but in hindsight it should be standard?

-SmileyEH

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
70 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

[SmileyEH]

I don't know if that's relevant - PFR converges fairly quickly I would think...his PFR is certainly less than 10. I'm not saying he never has a 9 here, it just seems that it would be a very very small part of his hand range.

-SmileyEH

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it odd that villain would checkraise the flop with trips Qs. Don't think its third level thinking. Will villain pay off with a 9? Sure, donks play 10/20 too.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one thinks JJ/TT is paying off?

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if that's relevant - PFR converges fairly quickly I would think...his PFR is certainly less than 10. I'm not saying he never has a 9 here, it just seems that it would be a very very small part of his hand range.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its more important to say that he (moslty) wouldn't check-raise a queen on this flop than it is to put him on a 9. Seems to me there are many more hands that c/r this flop...I said 9 first, but I think we should open his range to TT, JJ, etc.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I find it odd that villain would checkraise the flop with trips Qs. Don't think its third level thinking. Will villain pay off with a 9? Sure, donks play 10/20 too.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one thinks JJ/TT is paying off?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think so, but is it worth putting in the extra bets when I might end up folding a hand like AJ or end up paying an extra two to see AQ/KQ?

-SmileyEH

[brettbrettr]

Also, I'm no statistician but I think 70 is still too low to be reliable, even for a quickly converging stat like PFR. Of course I could be wrong.

[brettbrettr]

So you're calling a 3-bet?

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm no statistician but I think 70 is still too low to be reliable, even for a quickly converging stat like PFR. Of course I could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the statistics background to determine this, but I just loaded my session window and looked at sessions around 70 hands and my vpip. The standard deviation seemed to be about 2 or 3, so I think for PFR which would converge at a similar rate we can be fairly sure that a 5PFR over 70 isn't actually &gt; 10. 80% confidence seems about right. This is all just estimating of course - feel free to correct me.

-SmileyEH

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're calling a 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you mean cap right?

I didn't want to face that decision - this is more of a personal preference, but I hate putting myself to a decision where folding an overpair could be correct.

-SmileyEH

[brettbrettr]

There's a huge difference between 5 and 10 % pfr.

[brettbrettr]

No, I was thinking a raise on the big streets, hence the 3-bet thing. I agree that folding an overpair is a hard, hard thing to do. But, if you raise the turn or river, what on earth is he reraising that you beat?

[callmedonnie]

Is anyone considering three betting the flop? I am just wondering what people think of this move.

[SmileyGEY]

You have posted 47 hands in this forum.

You have indicated the limit at which the hand is played 5 times:

3: 10/20
2: 15/30


Almost all of your posts were played at lower than these limits.

Why not just start an official "I moved up" thread?

We get it. You moved up. Can I touch you? Pretty please?


-SmileyGEY

[SmileyEH]

Because most of the hands I post are 2/4. The game is different at 10/20. It seems relevant to me. lol, why am I responding to my own gimmic account.

-SmileyEH

[sthief09]

if you keep failing to extract max value with your good hands, then you'll continue to "run bad" at these games

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
if you keep failing to extract max value with your good hands, then you'll continue to "run bad" at these games

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see why everything I say needs to be used against me? Can you just respond to the hand? I'd like to think I've made at least a thousand decent strategy posts over the 10 months i've been regularly posting in STT, HUSH and small stakes. I've had people AIM me for advice, and had other posters thank me for helping them with their game. If you think I'm a dick then fine - dont reply to my hands, but I'm sick of having shots constantly taken at me.

-SmileyEH

[SmileyEH]

Villian in the hand had AThh and MHWG.

-SmileyEH

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Why the [censored] is the discussion here between calling and folding rather than calling and raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

Can someone answer this?

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why the [censored] is the discussion here between calling and folding rather than calling and raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

Can someone answer this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, no one seemed to really tackle this hand with much detail. I'd still like some input - sthief seems to think I played it terribly, other players are saying it's a close calldown. During the hand I considered all three options before settling on calling down (betting when checked to).

-SmileyEH

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why the [censored] is the discussion here between calling and folding rather than calling and raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

Can someone answer this?

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet the flop, not close.

Yeah, no one seemed to really tackle this hand with much detail. I'd still like some input - sthief seems to think I played it terribly, other players are saying it's a close calldown. During the hand I considered all three options before settling on calling down (betting when checked to).

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet the flop. Not close.

[Perseus]

I am three betting this flop everytime.

If for some reason I could not three bet the flop I would wait to raise the turn.

The thought that folding was even suggested blows my mind.

[TStoneMBD]

if youre going to raise somewhere it should be on the river, not the flop.

[The Goober]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, no one seemed to really tackle this hand with much detail. I'd still like some input

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'll throw out my $0.02... I think if this player was really that passive, he would probably have bet out the flop. If he's tricky enough to go for a flop CR with a queen, why wouldn't he wait until the turn/river to get in a raise? I've found that even passive players will often look at a paired flop and figure (correctly) that you aren't that likely to have hit it. Also, many players will play differently heads-up, so I feel like we have to basically treat this guy as an unknown here. The flop CR really feels to me like he's got a PP or two big cards and is trying to push you off of AK. FWIW, if I were UTG with with TT or JJ I'd play it this way - I'd assume I'm ahead on the flop and go for the CR, but hope that you'd fold with outs when I lead the turn.

Since you've got position, I'd call the flop and go for a raise on the turn, calling down if 3-bet. If I was OOP, I'd probably 3-bet the flop and lead the turn, since I don't want to run the risk of giving a free card.

[The Goober]

[ QUOTE ]
if youre going to raise somewhere it should be on the river, not the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'd almost always raise the turn here instead of the river. My thinking is that once I call the flop CR and the turn bet, villain might lose his nerve and check-call the river with a PP that he would have called down with.

It seems like waiting for the river is only a win those times that villian would have folded to the turn raise, but would have bet the river. It seems like most of the time, though, if villain is bluffing the turn, he would still have enough outs to call the raise and fold to the river bet, which gets us the same amount of money.

But I very rarely wait until the river to raise and I know there are times that I should be. Am I missing something here?

[Erik W]

Do we call down a 3-bet on the river?