an easy one

[joker122]

party 5/10 utg+1 open limps, co raises, fold to me in the BB with QQ, i 3bet, utg+1 calls 2 more, co caps.

flop is K92r

what's the best line here?

[etizzle]

check, fold for two cold on the flop if that's what happens.

If its checked to CO and he bets you can either checkraise (calling a 3 bet and folding UI) or call and bet out the turn. The call-donkbet line is just begging to be bluffraised by thinking players so probably don't use this one if the player is LAG or very good.

I personally like checkraising the flop and seeing where that brings us. If he just call the turn after the flop raise then I would bet the river for value.

[Noodles]

thats not easy!
i dunno,bet call a flop raise,then ummm,call down??
i havent a clue

[Mig]

How is CO ? Weak tight ? TA ? Is he of the kind to raise a flop bet with like 99/AJ/AQ to have a cheapshowdown ? If CO is weak tight I might check raise that flop doing so you might be able to have the blind fold a weak King ? Or I lead the flop call a raise and fold the turn UI if he fires again and that he is the kind of player to fire when he has it...

[J.R.]

i normally check-raise because

1) even though utg coldcalled 2 more preflop, you holding QQ limits utg's gutshot possibilities and the k high on board means overcards are not a fear there are hands you want him to fold that he won't for 13-1 but that he might and/or should for 7-2, namely one pair hands and one pair hands with backdoor straight/flush draws, but most importantly

2) it makes it easier to play v CO. I think at 5-10 you can do better than blindy assuming you will see a showdown sans an A by playing back at CO's expcected flop bet and reacting from there, especially if you have some sorta read/preliminary stats. The most credible line to your opponent isn't a flop or turn donkbet but a flop CR and turn lead.

[JrJordan]

Either way ahead or way behind. Normally in a HU pot this would be the time to just check/call it to a showdown. With UTG+1 still in the hand though, it's a bit tougher. This is about as drawless as it gets though so allowing a 5 outer for one bet instead of two isn't too bad. I check this flop, and call if UTG+1 checks as well and CO bets. If UTG+1 donk bets and CO raises then I probably muck it there.

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
i normally check-raise because

1) even though utg coldcalled 2 more preflop, you holding QQ limits utg's gutshot possibilities and the k high on board means overcards are not a fear there are hands you want him to fold that he won't for 13-1 but that he might and/or should for 7-2, namely one pair hands and one pair hands with backdoor straight/flush draws, but most importantly

2) it makes it easier to play v CO. I think at 5-10 you can do better than blindy assuming you will see a showdown sans an A by playing back at CO's expcected flop bet and reacting from there, especially if you have some sorta read/preliminary stats. The most credible line to your opponent isn't a flop or turn donkbet but a flop CR and turn lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the c/r gets it heads up, then fine. But if we c/r and both are still in the hand on the turn, then I'm even more lost that I was on the flop. How do you proceed there?

[J.R.]

depends on my read of the co but I'll often put in one more turn bet and that's it.

[Grisgra]

Gee, thanks for all the reads /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Calling a bet on the flop hunting for a set, and folding the turn unimproved is probably the most +EV.

If we assume AK and AA and KK auto-cap, JJ and TT cap maybe 30% of the time, KQ, AQ, AJ cap maybe 20% of the time . . . when you work in UTG hanging around, check/calling the flop looking to see if you hit a set on 4th street might be best.

Though I guess if I believe the percentages I just gave, calling down getting 4:1 by showdown to call the turn and river is even EV. If UTG folds to the button's flop bet.

I wonder whether taking the lead on the flop is worth it. AK probably raises the flop, but JJ/TT/AQ/AJ probably doesn't unless he's really aggro. I don't think a flop checkraise/turn lead gets you anywhere. The only stuff folding is stuff you're beating.

"Easy one" my ass! Not without reads at least.

[Surfbullet]

We are either way ahead or way behind of the CO, so were we HU we'd take a check-call line because the pot is large enough to see a showdown, because we'll be ahead of smaller PPs and unpaired big Aces. Raising allows him to 3bet when he's ahead and fold when he's behind, so there would be no point to raising were it heads-up.

Those advocating raising should examine what effect the UTG+1 caller has on our equity and how the hand plays out.

Possible UTG situations:

1) We're behind to a K (or unlikely 2 pair/set) - we have no chance of folding him, we have 2 outs if he has a K and 2-3 outs depending on what type of 2pair he has. This is quite unlikely.

2) He's got a 9 or a 2 (the 2 is less likely because he did call 2 more preflop) - he has 5 outs to beat us and we'd like to try and drive him out. However, if he is anything like the average 5/10er he's not folding a pair even to a raise, so we can make things less profitable for him but we cannot protect our hand. We cannot risk a 3bet but 5 outs isn't horrible. This is relatively unlikely.


3) he's got a no-pair hand with an A. These have 3 outs + runner runner outs. While we'd prefer to drive him out of the pot the risk of being 3bet by UTG means we will need to sacrifice some equity and allow him to call along. This is not too common.

4) he's got a no pair hand that is drawing to runner-runners (nearly dead), or a PP that is drawing to 2 outs. We have no desire to drive him out of the pot. Every incorrect call he makes earns us extra $. This is the most common situation.

These factors make it clear that check-calling is the best line. It is very unlikely given all of UTGs possible hands that he is ahead, and he does not detract from our equity enough to check-fold the turn.

His calls are 5 outs at best and 2 outs or runner runner at worst - in this very large pot we retain more than enough equity to see a showdown for 1 bet on each street. Additionally, he will often raise when he is ahead, allowing us to fold.

Surf

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling a bet on the flop hunting for a set, and folding the turn unimproved is probably the least -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP (first time I do this /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that after we check and he bets the flop, we are in a -EV situation.

I still don't know what the correct line would be here, but why would you check call for a two outer? Unless of course you are planning to see a cheap show down if it gets heads up.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling a bet on the flop hunting for a set, and folding the turn unimproved is probably the least -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP (first time I do this /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that after we check and he bets the flop, we are in a -EV situation.

I still don't know what the correct line would be here, but why would you check call for a two outer? Unless of course you are planning to see a cheap show down if it gets heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grisgra is advocating assuming we are behind, and calling to try and hit a set on the turn...we are a little short on pot odds, but will usuallly make it up in implied odds.

Surf

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
I still don't know what the correct line would be here, but why would you check call for a two outer?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not just a two outer. There is also a chance we have the best hand. If he is the sort of guy who will not a fire a second barrell on the turn with (for example) JJ, then for $5 we get to see if we catch a queen or if he checks indicating that our hand is good.

Note that this is why it is not good to routinely fail to bet the turn after getting called on the flop if your hand isn't that great and bet again if it is good (as we are hoping our opponent will do). It is very exploitable and your opponents can counter this strategy by peeling a card and seeing what you do on the turn.

[Lmn55d]

J.R., great analysis. I think you are exactly right and I would also checkraise exactly for the reasons you described. This isn't a way ahead/way behind situation once you have included the middle guy who could have a wide range of 5+ out draws.

[me454555]

Reads would be very helpful here

If player is a TAG or a passive w/a pfr less than 10, I'm check folding
If the player is a Lag w/a pfr greater than 20, I'll prolly checkraise.

The presence of the 3rd player makes me less likely to think CO is making a move here and more likely to have a real capping hand which you are way behind. I'd need a strong read on the capper to believe I'm ahead here.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
We cannot risk a 3bet but 5 outs isn't horrible. This is relatively unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is what I don't get. its 5-10, you are beat when 3-bet. so you call and spike a Q and make bucks or fold and save a BB v calling down (you invest 1.5 BB as opposed to 2.5 bbs you would is you c-c whole way). and you don't lose that much value because most 5-10ers check a hand worse than a K on the river (if they even bet the turn), so you only make 1.5BBs postflop the majority of the time you are ahead and adopt the check-call line and your opponent plays typically.

the biggest thing in favor of not check-raising the flop is how close to WA/WB this is because more often than not the guy in the middle is drawing slim (1 out) and thus is largely irrelevant. But the pot is 12sbs, so I'd rather try to win it now because he doesn't need much to call getting 14-1 on the flop.

And suppose pfr/capper has AQ/AJ? You give him 2 streets to look at 3 ace outs (12ish%), winning .5BB when ahead (maybe more if he pays of a river bet) and losing at least 1.5 BB when he draws out. even an underpair in pfr's hands that checks the turn (many do at 5-10) you only get .5 BBs (maybe 1.5 if they pay off a river bet) out of when ahead but give him a two street look at a 2 outer (8ish%) and lose 1.5ish BBs or more when he sucks out.

and neither of the two above approaches considers when you let the guy in the middle catch a 5 (pair) or 6 outer (pair + backdoor draw) or even a 3-outer. And these outs are magnified when we check the turn and the preflop capper checks behind. Even a 2 outer is ok to draw on the flop if you just call becuase they get 14-1, with implied odds on the flop of at least be 3 Bbs on avergae, so he is effectively getting 20ish-1 to call the flop bet and only need preflop capper to check it thru every so often when you check the turn to make the flop call correct with a pocket pair.

reads help but I think the 5-10 raiser play predictably and passively enough here to justify a check-raise. the trickiest thing is turn play when called in two spots. I think i usually bet fold. if the preflop capper calls a flop cr headup and raises turn, i muck.


[ QUOTE ]
Additionally, he (the guy in the middle) will often raise when he is ahead, allowing us to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a good point though. i just get caught up in pot size- 6BBs went into the pot preflop.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
this is what I don't get. its 5-10, you are beat when 3-bet. so you call and spike a Q and make bucks or fold and save a BB v calling down (you invest 1.5 BB as opposed to 2.5 bbs you would is you c-c whole way). and you don't lose that much value because most 5-10ers check a hand worse than a K on the river (if they even bet the turn), so you only make 1.5BBs postflop the majority of the time you are ahead and adopt the check-call line and your opponent plays typically.

the trickiest thing is turn play when called in two spots. I think i usually bet fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Reasons I prefer calling down:
-We have sufficient pot equity to see a showdown
-We're giving ourselves 2 chances to hit a set
-We're either way ahead or way behind
-The limper is usually drawing slim or dead

Reasons I don't like checkraising:
-The PFR will occassionally 3bet a worse hand on the flop, costing us the pot, and our 2nd chance to hit a set. We don't have any reads and there are plenty of players capable of this at the 5/10.
-We cannot drive the limper out when he is drawing live
-We are prone to making costly mistakes in this very large pot.

Say we c/r, and the limper calls 2 cold. Is this because he has a K? Or because he has a 9/2? or A-high? Now we bet-fold the turn, but he calls again(as he would with virtually any hand that calls the flop).

This line is supposed to save us bets vs a K and protect our hand vs worse hands...but he didn't fold any hand with outs, and now we're at the river, we check, and limper bets. If we call we've just cost ourselves 1SB extra to get to showdown(plus the risk of 3bet mentioned above) just to make villains effective odds a bit worse. But if we fold we may give up the best hand to a 9 or PP or a bluff.

When we are ahead and the pfr checks behind the turn, their effective odds get a bit better - but sometimes we are the one getting a free card vs the limper's weak K. They have no implied odds to speak of because we aren't paying off a raise.

I guess I'm just not very concerned about giving away cheap cards because my opponents usually don't have outs to call anyway...and if they do, it's only barely - they aren't costing me a significant amount of money. Sometimes I'm raising with the worst hand. And folding incorrectly costs me a very large pot occassionally, which IMO is a bigger loss.

Surf

[PokerBob]

I think you need to decide then and there if you are showing down. If not, dump it. Not too many draws out there as you have 2 of the gutterball outs. I think I check/call all the way down, unles CO is a 19/3 type.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
The most credible line to your opponent isn't a flop or turn donkbet but a flop CR and turn lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

This costs us 2BB, and may get him off JJ. Check/call costs us 2.5 and gets us to SD. /images/graemlins/confused.gif