Easy push, right?

[samr]

$5+1 SNG on Party.

The short stack was trying to fold into the money, playing very very weak-tight.

The big stack was involved in almost every hand, very LAGgy and trying to win small pots. He enjoys spite-calling.

Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: SHORTY ( $290 )
Seat 3: HERO ( $1215 )
Seat 7: OBSERVER ( $3110 )
Seat 1: BIGSTACK ( $3385 )

Level: 6 Blinds(100/200)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ac Kc ]
HERO is all-In [1215]
SHORTY folds.
OBSERVER folds.
BIGSTACK calls [1015].

[Nottom]

Yeah, pretty easy push.

The bigstack has to be pretty much completely insane for this to be a bad push.

[tigerite]

If you want to get 3rd fold. If you want to play for 1st push. Quite an easy choice..

[11t]

Okay you just said

"The big stack was involved in almost every hand, very LAGgy and trying to win small pots. He enjoys spite-calling."

And pushed with a guy with 1.5xBB who is going to be all in next hand. It is pretty but I think you gotta let her go unless the big stack will fold most hands but call a lot of aces and kings.

If he calls with k7, I think you can push here but if he calls with 78 I think you shuold let her go.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to get 3rd fold. If you want to play for 1st push. Quite an easy choice..

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a way overused line. If Hero was facing an all-in holding AK it would be an easy fold.

[tigerite]

Yes, for sure, but he's not - he's the aggressor in the hand.

[11t]

"He enjoys spite-calling."

Fear the spite call and maximize your win-rate. If the shorty was at 600 this would be different.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

If he calls with k7, I think you can push here but if he calls with 78 I think you shuold let her go.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hes calling with 78 then you are probably in trouble. But even the most spiteful opponents aren't going to be that loose.

He has to be calling with somethign along the lines of: 22+, A2+, K2+, Q5o+, Q2s+, J8o+, J5s+, T9o+, T7s+, 98s for the push to be -EV. You'd have to be against a real special opponent to see that kind of calling range.

[pokerlaw]

fold into $$.

[theredbaron]

Its probably a hole in my game, but I always push AK on the bubble, unless there is a MICRO stack UTG.

And even then I usually do. Smart opponents will fold just about everything except AA,KK and even QQ sometimes. Dummys will 'spite call' and either double me up or put me out, but its much more often double me up and put me in solid position for first place.

But thats me. I could be wrong, I often am. Now OTH, I FOLD AKs to any kind of raise in this situation and definitely play VERY cautiously if I get to take a flop from the BB. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[tminus]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, pretty easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed

[ QUOTE ]
The bigstack has to be pretty much completely insane

[/ QUOTE ]

well this is a 5$ table

[lastchance]

I've folded in a spot very similar to this one. Of course, I was absolutely certain BB was calling my push with any 2, and certainly the range that you have.

[wiggs73]

I'd actually fold this. If shorty had 600, I'd push. If I had 500 I'd push. As it stands, you can survive a round or 2 of blinds and you're more or less guaranteed ITM if you fold.

Also, I'm tired of the "play for first, not third" line. There are times when this applies. If the stacks were 5k, 1k, 1k, 1k then yeah... play for first now. As it stands, play for ITM which should be easy enough to do since someone is busting in the next 3 hands, save a miracle. Then once you're *already in the money*, double up one time and then continue playing for first.

[samr]

I thought about it and decided to push this hand. The BB stayed true to form and called me with K5s, MHIG. The shorty busted a few hands later.

I went on to push ATs into the big stack, he called with 53o, MHIG, and I took it down HU.

My Conclusions:
Folding this hand is probably -chipEV but +$EV.
Pushing this hand is probably +chipEV but -$EV.

If you're aggressive and want to maximize your ROI by taking the risk, push.
If you want to crawl into almost guaranteed 3rd place money, fold.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to get 3rd fold. If you want to play for max $EV . Quite an easy choice..

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

Maximizing one's chances of getting 1st is not a valid goal in and of itself.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

My Conclusions:
Folding this hand is probably -chipEV but +$EV.
Pushing this hand is probably +chipEV but -$EV.

If you're aggressive and want to maximize your ROI by taking the risk, push.
If you want to crawl into almost guaranteed 3rd place money, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sence.