How to suck at poker

[Ghazban]

This was from over the weekend and I don't have the HH on this computer so its from memory. Villain is unimaginative and on the weak/tight side. I've played with him at least 4-5 times and would expect he sees me as being very LAG-gy in LP. I'm really only posting this so to force myself to think about the hand again and not play this way in the future.

Party 1/2 NL full, I have $200, he has me covered by a few bucks.

Folded to him 3 off the button and he openraises to $6. I have black KK in the CO and make it $20. Its folded back to him and he thinks a long time and calls.

Flop: T84r ($43 less rake)

He donkbets $20 into me. I'm fairly certain he has a smaller overpair as he plays AA very fast preflop. He's trying to see if I have big cards or a bigger pair. I call, figuring he'll fold to a raise but might continue to bet if the turn is harmless.

Turn is a J, putting 2 diamonds on the board (not a straight flush draw, though). Pot = $83 less rake

He checks to me, I bet $50 and he checkminraises me to $100. I call.

River is an eleventy-four of wands, he pushes and I call.

[djoyce003]

he turned a set of jacks. I think you should have raised the flop....that tells him you can beat top pair. If you get further agression from him, he's telling you he can beat aa/kk. Raise the flop and this hand plays easier, you can fold to the turn checkraise, etc. Part of the problem with setting traps is that sometimes you step into your own. I did this exact same thing against a real aggro player with KK against his 99. I never raised him and ended up getting all my chips in against his set....i never played it to get information. This line isn't terrible as you committ yourself to a line that you win most of the time, but every once in a while you lose way more chips than you normally would.

[nrinker]

I like the flop call because it puts him in a sticky situation on the turn/gives you more money. But ya, your read on the villain makes me want to fold this turn. Most definitely the river.

[fuzzbox]

Bet flop weak then check/minraise turn = setty mcsetterson. You are beat - let it go.

See how big pairs entice you to go for your stack - they are truly the evil of poker.

[Maulik]

please, watch me suck (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2837673&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=2&fpart=1) at poker. similar situation, you need to defend/define your hand even though you're assuming he's got an overpair. I'd try to get all my money in at some point on the flop or at least define my hand so he understands you're strong.

[swolfe]

played fine...what else can you do on the flop? WAWB

i'd have probably checked the turn and called a river bet.

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
WAWB

[/ QUOTE ]

?

[TheWorstPlayer]

So you put him on precisely JJ/QQ. He then min c/r the turn when a J hits. And you call because....? I don't even bet the turn here. He's still not drawing very live if he miraculously has QQ and I want to a)avoid a c/r and b)keep up the charade of having AK.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
So you put him on precisely JJ/QQ. He then min c/r the turn when a J hits. And you call because....

[/ QUOTE ]

I suck at poker. See post title.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WAWB

[/ QUOTE ]

?

[/ QUOTE ]

Way Ahead/ Way Behind

[bobhalford]

Dunno, I raise the flop because it's such a donkey move to bet into someone who raised pf. Make the donkey pay 3x more to see the turn. Most of the time if nothing hits on the turn (in this case a J), he will check, you will bet and then he might call or fold. You know he doesn't have AA, so you have the best hand. Why be a pussy and just call the donkey's donk bet? Not being critical, just wondering.

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]

River is an eleventy-four of wands, he pushes and I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if he held the fourty-ten of crackernut though ??

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]
WAWB



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see why people think a WAWB situation warrants a complete inducing of weakness in one's play.

You're way ahead or you're way behind. Do you know which one it is ?? How the hell are you going to know by checking and calling, oh yeah : showdown. Putting the opponent on QQ-JJ, why not raise him on the flop and see if he gets overexcited with his overpair ? By letting him control the betting, you are left emming awing to the river, where he will definitely ask for your stack once you've let him take entire control over the hand.

[TheWorstPlayer]

But he will also realise that he is WAWB and will also want to play a small pot. And then you two will always play small pots when it is WAWB and the person who is WA will win the small pots and that will be each of you the same amount over time and no one will win money or lose money over the long term when they are WA or WB and that is the way that it is supposed to be. You can find out information by raising, but the cost of the raise is more than the value of the information. And it also gives you a chance to get outplayed. Just try to play a small pot. If he insists on playing a big pot, he is probably not in a WAWB situation, which means that he is WA and you are WB. Unless he's bluffing or a donkey.

[sourbeaver]

I like the reciprocity thinking here.

Would you fold to the turn minraise then ?
How about checking the turn to keep the pot small ? Calling a non Q river is less expensive then, and checking behind gives him at most 2 outs if he's behind on the turn.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
How about checking the turn to keep the pot small ? Calling a non Q river is less expensive then, and checking behind gives him at most 2 outs if he's behind on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
From my post up above:
[ QUOTE ]
I don't even bet the turn here. He's still not drawing very live if he miraculously has QQ and I want to a)avoid a c/r and b)keep up the charade of having AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

[sourbeaver]

Gotta work on my reading /images/graemlins/wink.gif

So I agree on the line now. Checking behind on turn gets you a cheaper showdown, keeps him betting a 2nd best hand, has him drawing to 2 outs if he's behind.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking behind on turn gets you a cheaper showdown, keeps him betting a 2nd best hand, has him drawing to 6 outs if he's behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP. But the chance that you're behind now is too great to bet the turn, IMO.

[sourbeaver]

The bad thing here is that we see he checked the turn when we decide which line to take on the flop.

But what if we didn't know ? What if he bet the turn again ?

Bare with me, I'm just trying to stir up discussion.

[TheWorstPlayer]

If he bet the turn again, I call again. I don't want to play a big pot. Checking and calling plays a small pot. Betting and raising plays a big pot. My plan is to check and call. Unless he is really pushing hard in which case I may fold.

[Ghazban]

This generated more discussion that I expected so I guess I'll explain my reasoning. I called the flop because I think he folds to a raise but might bet/call a second best hand on the turn. I bet the turn because, if he has QQ, he'll probably call (I know it sounds contradictory that QQ would fold to a flop raise but call a turn bet but its been my experience with players of this type that that is indeed what will happen). When he check/minraises, he's effectively turned up JJ/TT and I should fold but I stupidly talked myself into believing he was totally misplaying QQ and I should call it down. This was my big mistake in the hand.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I really don't think so. I really think your mistake was betting the turn. Who cares if you've seen terrible players make the terrible play of calling the turn here? Betting the turn is still not the right play. For the 50 you bet on the turn, you could probably see a showdown and 5% of the time you'll even suck out for free on the river.

[Ghazban]

I see your point but I am not 100% convinced betting the turn is wrong. I think calling the turn checkraise was a much larger mistake than betting the turn. Obviously, I couldn't make that mistake had I not bet the turn so its impossible to evaluate the two separately. Betting the turn is a huge mistake if I can't fold to the checkraise; that's pretty clear /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[imported_anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
Dunno, I raise the flop because it's such a donkey move to bet into someone who raised pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

Against a "fast" player, or someone who will "slowplay aces"
against a hand that beats aces, leading into the raiser can a spectacular money play.

I am in full agreement w/ Ghazban's own assessment. Bet the turn, fold to the checkraise.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well, let's do this thought experiment (for you mathematical types out there):

He has JJ 50% of the time, QQ 50% of the time. Assign behaviours for him to take with each hand and then work out the value, based on those behaviours (assuming he does NOT randomise his behaviour) calculate the value of betting and folding to a raise versus checking and taking the free card. It will obviously depend on his behaviour, so assume some reasonable behaviour and state what the assumptions are. I think it will be interesting, but I am at work and don't have time to work anything out myself.

[Ghazban]

I'm not going to do the math because I don't think its particularly useful in this case. However, why would it be 50/50 QQ or JJ? If you assume he has exactly QQ or JJ, the J on the board makes it more likely he has QQ (6 ways to have QQ, only 3 ways to have JJ).

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think the math actually is useful because the value of checking the turn is dependent on how often he will fold on the turn, but call on the river with QQ, how often he will fold QQ on the turn, but bet it on the river, and how often you will suck out on the river. Also, if he calls the turn, do you fold if he bets the river? This actually is a somewhat intricate math problem, I'm pretty sure.

[Ghazban]

The intricacy is part of why it is not that interesting a math problem. You have to make so many assumptions and guesstimates of probabilities of calling/folding/raising for the different cases that your end result will have such a large error factor that its not worth the time.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think it would be interesting even if you assumed he did not randomize his actions (although I could certainly be wrong). For instance, say he always calls the turn with QQ but will fold the river if you bet again. He will always call the turn with JJ and will bet half pot on the river. Say you will always call the river unless you hit your A in which case you'll raise and he'll call. Fine, maybe I'm wrong and it's not that interesting, but I think the wrinkle about the fact that you might spike an ace on the river, and how much turn EV you should be willing to potentially give up for that chance, is an interesting thing for the math to illuminate since I don't have a clear intuition on how much that should be worth.

[JaBlue]

fold to the turn minraise, damnit. he has JJ or TT.

Also you should check the turn and call the river. There are very few cards that beat you if you aren't all ready against a set and a checkraise will make you throw up.

[amoeba]

I like these type of bet the turn or check behind questions.

anyways, the chances of you spiking an A when he holds JJ is evened out by the chances of him spiking a Q when you hold AA.
The difference is that you probably win a bigger pot in case 1 than the one you lose in case 2.

The consideration of what is more likely, him calling a turn bet with QQ or getting turn checked through and him calling a river bet is inconsequential if you bet the turn, get called and will check through the river anyways.

Where there is a key difference between the two lines is if he calls the turn bet with JJ, then leads the river for something that is indistinguishable between a QQ blocker and a JJ value. In this case, the turn check through has more merit.

where the turn bet is better is if he grossly overbets the river on a checkthrough with both QQ and JJ.

but I will have to agree with Ghazban that the call of the turn mincheckraise is bigger mistake than betting the turn.

[TheWorstPlayer]

OK, I'll buy that. Also, don't forget QQ actually has 6 outs, not two. Which brings up another point. Pushing the turn is better than the line OP took, in case he actually IS getting cute with QQ but will fold the river if he doesn't hit one of his 6 outs, strange as that may seem.