Flop Flush Draw on Paired Board

[jnh24]

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero...


My first hand at the table. No reads, but I don't think they are important for this situation. Do I fold, raise or call here? What if there is a check-raise. Should I call or cap?

[davelin]

Raising is silly, folding would be too, that leaves...

[imported_The Vibesman]

Just call. You don't raise because you have no chance of winning w/o your flush. You're not going to drive out anyone with a higher flush draw, and you won't get enough people to call two cold to make it for value. I don't think anyone's got the full house here (yet) so you are drawing live. Someone could be going for a check-raise, but that's the chance you'll have to take.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone could be going for a check-raise, but that's the chance you'll have to take.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would love it if somebody check-raised, as I might now be able to 3-bet for value and get called in multiple spots.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't raise because you have no chance of winning w/o your flush

[/ QUOTE ]

I think on this board and with this action there is a fair chance that you will win if you spike a pair. But calling and playing this as a flush draw is best as with this many loose players you will be paid off well if you hit your flush.

[ QUOTE ]
Someone could be going for a check-raise, but that's the chance you'll have to take.

[/ QUOTE ]
This would be a good thing and I would raise if they did this for a possible free card and for value. It's much more likely the bettor is being check/raised with trips than a full house/quads.

[2+2 Junkie]

I would raise here. If someone has an ace, you are likely to get good action on the flush. If re-raised, I would cap this flop.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise here. If someone has an ace, you are likely to get good action on the flush. If re-raised, I would cap this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming enough callers to make this raise an equity. I disagree.

[2moreTerps]

no i'm wrong. call. with that board they'll fold two a raise

[2+2 Junkie]

So you think that anyone that doesn't have the ace is going to call even the first bet? The only people that will call even the first bet are flush draws, and maybe any small/medium PP, hoping to get the boat. I think I would like to make the cold call to try for their boat, and get some nice action from the trip aces when I hit my flush. I also have a backdoor straight and straight flush draw.
I respect your opinion greatly, so convince me.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would raise here. If someone has an ace, you are likely to get good action on the flush. If re-raised, I would cap this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming enough callers to make this raise an equity. I disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do too. Anyone who cold calls here either has trips or is a special kind of donk. They'll still call one with anything, but not two. Call, and hope the fish come along.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
So you think that anyone that doesn't have the ace is going to call even the first bet? The only people that will call even the first bet are flush draws, and maybe any small/medium PP, hoping to get the boat. I think I would like to make the cold call to try for their boat, and get some nice action from the trip aces when I hit my flush. I also have a backdoor straight and straight flush draw.
I respect your opinion greatly, so convince me.

[/ QUOTE ]

A raise is going to making everyone face two and scare out a lot of hands that may call for one. Who's going to call 2? Another flush draw or an ace, pretty much no one else unless they're complete donks. You need at least 2 other callers to make this an equity raise. I just don't see it. An not-too-infrequent scenario puts you heads-up against someone with an Ace.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
So you think that anyone that doesn't have the ace is going to call even the first bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. There are 7 players to the flop. This makes it very likely that some/all of them are loose.

[ QUOTE ]
The only people that will call even the first bet are flush draws, and maybe any small/medium PP, hoping to get the boat

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think they called with preflop? Suited connectors/pairs? I'd wager at least one of them has a hand like J6o (and more likely half of them). They will call another small bet hoping to pair up here almost every time.

[imported_The Vibesman]

[ QUOTE ]
I would love it if somebody check-raised, as I might now be able to 3-bet for value and get called in multiple spots.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking more an EP check-raise, blowing away most of the field, the callers and my odds. You definitely have a point, tho.

[2+2 Junkie]

So bascially, to play it the best, we need to go for overcalls?

Would any other flush draw be different?

What hands would we raise with, if any?

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
So bascially, to play it the best, we need to go for overcalls?

Would any other flush draw be different?

What hands would we raise with, if any?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, although its not really "going for overcalls" as much as its "we don't have enough equity to raise so just call".

No.

I'd raise with an A or a 5, although I can't imagine why I'd have a 5 in my hand at this point, unless it was pocket 5's /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[imported_The Vibesman]

[ QUOTE ]
So bascially, to play it the best, we need to go for overcalls?

Would any other flush draw be different?

What hands would we raise with, if any?

[/ QUOTE ]

For starters I'd raise any pocket pair and the trips themselves, knowing the flush draws would come along one way or the other and wanting them to pay, maybe even folding a low flush draw who is scared of boat/higher flush.

[KaiShin]

Yes good point, I'd raise with pocket pairs as well.

[2+2 Junkie]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes good point, I'd raise with pocket pairs as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

So we are raising with pocket pair (any?) for the following:
1. With the two aces, it is more likely that no one has one (even with 7 entering the pot?), thus making our hand best.
2. We want to make the 35% flush draw chances pay.

[MrWookie47]

The flush draws will not be paying to draw unless it's 3 handed or less (assuming you have an A). Their draw is strong enough that they can raise for value with enough opponents. This is an important thing that many new players get wrong. You usually can't "charge" flush draws until the turn.

[imported_The Vibesman]

[ QUOTE ]
The flush draws will not be paying to draw unless it's 3 handed or less (assuming you have an A). Their draw is strong enough that they can raise for value with enough opponents. This is an important thing that many new players get wrong. You usually can't "charge" flush draws until the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know they are not drawing "incorrectly" - the first person faced with the raise will be getting 5-1 immediate odds - when I say make them pay I just mean I'm not going to give free cards, they are putting some money in to draw.
Should I not be raising in that hypothetical? I'm having a hard time understanding that. They won't call a river bet if they don't make the flush. I understand the theory behind controlling the pot in order to make your opponents make mistakes, but in this case we have a lot of players left to act behind us who probably don't have flush draws as well.

[Duffman]

Is it correct to raise and reraise here to get more value for your flush?

Edit: Never mind just read the replies. This is very interesting.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it correct to raise and reraise here to get more value for your flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if we have enough callers. I'm arguing that we won't.

[gopnik]

call, and call a raise

[Duffman]

What is our equity here?

15%?

[bottomset]

just call the flop

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
What is our equity here?

15%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm...I'd say around 25-30%

[Duffman]

So with 7 people on the flop and a 25%-30% equity how is raising not the best option?

You're bound to have at least 4 callers.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
So with 7 people on the flop and a 25%-30% equity how is raising not the best option?

You're bound to have at least 4 callers.

[/ QUOTE ]

With two Aces on the board, I'd be surprised if you got more than 1 caller.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
So with 7 people on the flop and a 25%-30% equity how is raising not the best option?

You're bound to have at least 4 callers.

[/ QUOTE ]

because none of the players have put any money in postflop, and you'll likely blow away most of them

I think 25-30% is too high of an estimate, I'd say prob around 20%

[Duffman]

Is there any way to calculate equity or is it only an estimation?

[2+2 Junkie]

"Is there any way to calculate equity or is it only an estimation? "

I understood it as the following (better players and vets correct me if I am wrong):
We have a flush draw, which at this point, will come in around 35% of the time.
Before the flop we are 1 of 7 in this hand, so our equity is around 15%.

Our draw is 35, our equity is 15, so we have and edge. Therefore we should bet or raise.

Now, in this case, once the flop comes with two aces and there is a bet, I believe that the argument is in order for us to raise, at least us and 2 other callers have to call to keep our edge. If we raise, some are arguing that we won't have the edge, therefore making our play -EV.

Corrections?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
I understood it as the following (better players and vets correct me if I am wrong):
We have a flush draw, which at this point, will come in around 35% of the time.
Before the flop we are 1 of 7 in this hand, so our equity is around 15%.

Our draw is 35, our equity is 15, so we have and edge. Therefore we should bet or raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

Let's not mix preflop and flop. Your preflop equity is probably marginally above average because of the terrible hands the opponents are likely to play here. But on the flop things have changed dramatically. Hero will win this often if the flush comes in assuming the board doesn't double pair and another ace doesn't fall. These are relatively rare occurances though.

So the flush will come in around 35% of the time. This means hero's equity is around 35%. Probably a bit lower here because of the paired board, so let's say 25-30%. This means if we can bet and get 4+ callers our bet has positive expectation and is for value. If we get 3 callers we are pretty much breaking even with the bets going in. 2 callers and we are more often giving money to someone else.

The interesting thing about a draw like this is that it doesn't matter how many players you are against (especially if we have a non-paired board) you are going to win it a good percentage of the time if your flush comes in. Unlike top pair draws, your edge does not increase much when you eliminate players. In this particular hand, a raise here is more likely to eliminate players than to get more bets in so calling is better for two reasons. First, more players are like to call behind making the pot bigger when we have a large edge. Second, the pot size will give people odds to call our bets later if we hit our flush. So the more players the better here.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any way to calculate equity or is it only an estimation?

[/ QUOTE ]

A little of both actually. If we knew exactly what our opponent(s) held, we could determine our exact equity (in an all-in situation or when you have a specific read like "this opponent would only play an overpair this way"). But since this is not usually the case, the best we can usually do is estimate. When you are drawing to a very powerful hand (such as a straight or better), your equity is likely to be much easier to compute as often it's simply a matter of how often will I hit my hand.

[TomBrooks]

Get as many bets into the pot as you can. You can best accomplish that by...calling.

[TomBrooks]

Would any other flush draw be different? --------No

What hands would we raise with, if any? ---------I would say any Ace, Five or High Pocket Pair. Do you see why?