What are you betting on today??

[scott8]

Just asking.
I don't have a problem.

Ummmm, so who do you like in the homerun derby /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[DougOzzzz]

I don't know, but the under bets at pinnacle for most HR's in a single round, and total HR's might be good.

Comerica hasn't allowed many home runs the past few years.

[Sluss]

Is there some sort of a new format this year? Countries or some crap?

I actually was betting on the homerun derby up until two years ago. Things got screwy though after they went to the round by round scoring and made it much harder to pick a winner.

[wadea]

I've concocted a formula to predict each player's probability of winning the HR Derby. With some help from a friend with a statistics masters, we decided that, for home run derby purposes, a player's HR potential can be estimated as (HR)/((at bats)-(strikeouts)). Essentially, this is how many HR for each time the ball is put into play. It assumes that there won't be any whiffing against the BP fastballs. I took that number and used a multiplier such that the average for the group was 5HR/15ABs (5HR and 10 outs in derby format), which I figured to be about average for a derby in a round.

Using 8+ HRs as the number required to proceed to the next round, I plugged those numbers into a "negative binomial distribution" function (Excel actually has this function) and spit out numbers for the probability that each player will hit at least 8 HR before making 10 outs.

I normalized these probabilities to equal 1 and compared it to the odds offered. Interestingly, the two +EV plays according to this system were Jones and Choi. Sports betting sucks in that I'll never know if this is predictive or not, since you can make a good bet and still lose. Anyway, I bet Jones at 7/2 and Choi at 13/1. Wish me luck,

-w.a.

PS - I'd love to hear some comments on my line of reasoning in this matter. Does anyone have a better idea? Ground ball/Fly ball ratios or some other metric?

[WackityWhiz]

I'll guess someone hits 24 homers...

just a hunch

[CCx]

it's no surprise abreu hit so many, he's so good at hitting home runs when no one's on base... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ThaHero]

I forgot the home run derby came on today. Is it over? Who won?

If you bet on Choi, hope he is on a hot streak. I'm a Dodger fan, and it's literally feast or famine with this guy. Either he's blasting them out the park or whiffing on every pitch. If he is on for the All Star game, he is a sure lock lol

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know, but the under bets at pinnacle for most HR's in a single round, and total HR's might be good.

Comerica hasn't allowed many home runs the past few years.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was the under for most homers in a round set at 24.5? Hope so...

Really pretty strange. I know the focus is all on Abreu, but Ortiz also hit 17 HR's in a round - which would have been good enough for a record.