Borgata 40-80 Hand: Dogging it on the turn...and the river

[Jeffage]

Great 40-80 game at Borgata. This hand is pissing me off. I have J /images/graemlins/heart.gif10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in mid position. One limper, I limp, the button limps, the SB (a terrible, overaggressive player) raises, the BB calls, all the limpers call. 5 players to a flop of 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif. The SB bets, BB calls, limper folds, I raise (since my flush includes overs and I might get a freebie if I want it, etc). The button (a loose, but not clueless player) coldcalls. SB and BB call. 4 to the turn of 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Check to me, I check, the button checks. River is an offsuit 7. Check to me, I go to bet and dog it instead. It gets checked around. I really dislike my play on this one. Comments? I just felt like betting the turn must be a waste when all those players called the turn. Seems like my chance of taking the pot down uncontested was very low. Same with the river. I figured someone would pay off with a raggedy pair or even ace high. Comments?

Thanks,
Jeff

[tomahawk]

I think you have to bet this turn, but I think it's pretty close.

On one hand you still have two overs and a good draw, and you want to send the message that cold calling your flopraises doesn't mean free rivers.

On the other hand you have three opponents who have shown some strengh, and one of them will likely call you til the end whether you improve or not.

On the river I think a bet is -EV. too many of them.

[tpir90036]

Not sure what else you can do here.... the odds of everyone folding on any one street are not good... you might be able to dust everyone off if you fire two more barrels.... but I still don't like it.

[daryn]

i think you played it fine. you can't win every pot.

[GreywolfNYC]

Jeff,
I think you played it fine. I doubt there was anything different you could have done here.

[onegymrat]

Hi Jeff,

I think that the minute you checked the turn, it screamed of a flush draw. A futile bet on the river MAY get all three opponents to fold, but most likely will get called down by a minimum of ace-high.

[Jeffage]

How many opponents would I have to have on the turn for you to lean towards betting?

Jeff

[GreywolfNYC]

[ QUOTE ]
How many opponents would I have to have on the turn for you to lean towards betting?

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd say two. Four is just too many and I think that your first instinct was the right one. It's possible to put the button on Ax of hearts with his pre-flop limp and cold-call of the flop raise. It could have been very expensive for you if your flush had gotten there. He might have paired the six or the deuce or a have a gutshot along with his flush draw. But you've got the other two in the picture as well and god knows that they've got. I like the flop raise but I think you're done with this hand after that.

[Jeffage]

Do you think all of my opponents will fold 1 in 9 times if I bet the river after showing weakness on the turn? It's a desperation bet for sure.

Jeff

[onegymrat]

Yes, 1 in 9 they will fold, theoretically. I feel the key to this hand, though, lies in the button cold-calling your flop raise. The intention is to drive out overs/free river/build bigger pot if flush comes. But the guy got in the way, which kind of defeats your purpose, no? I think if you didn't have someone behind you, a bet (on the river OR the turn) would make much more sense.

[Jeffage]

The button turned over A10 and everyone mucked, myself included. I wanted to vomit, but I guess you can't win them all.

Jeff

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
the odds of everyone folding on any one street are not good

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but I still think this is a mandatory turn bet. You don't expect everyone to fold, that's unrealistic. But a bet here certainly might clear up quite a few outs. AJ, QJ or AT might take a card off on the flop, but will most likely fold, especially if Jeff's image is a solid one, and it probably is. Also, a turn bet potentially sets you up for a steal on the river if you only get called in one spot.

Given the way the hand played out, I think a river bet would be horrible after checking the turn, you're getting called by any pair or ace high like 99.5% of the time.