AA, should I keep raising?

[apaugust]

Reads:
UTG+2 LP-P
Button LA-P
SB LP-P

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (16.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (25.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 31.50 BB

Should I be capping the turn? Any other thoughts?

[hicherbie]

seems fine to me.

[Marquis]

If your reads are correct:

Capping the turn would be silly. These passive players really like their hands. I think UTG+2 has 9s full and SB probably has QQ if not some nonsense with a J in it.

On the river, I suppose it's possible that you're up against exactly QQ and KK. Difficult call not closing the action.

[crownjules]

SBs 3-bet preflop probably means he's got AA-QQ, maybe AK, so it's reasonable to think you're ahead and I would raise all of his bets with this board. UTG+2, however, is a different matter. I don't like his flop call/raise at all, especially when he's passive postflop. The turn 3-bet from him is again bad - two pair or set.

The river is either good or bad for you. If he had two pair from the flop, you just counterfeited him. A call is tough for 2 bets because you don't know for sure if you're facing two-pair or a set, but I would probably call.

[Innocentius]

[ QUOTE ]
Should I be capping the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't think so. You have a read on UTG+2 as passive postflop, and here he is 3-betting both flop and turn. Most likely he has you beat. Also, since SB is loose, I don't think he's going to fold if its two more to him on the turn.

[tiltaholic]

so, you have 2 passive players playing very aggressively, and you have an overpair.

i think i'd call the river, only because you may have sucked out on UTG+2's 2 pair. but depending on how passive they are, a river fold wouldn't be bad either.

[Dave G.]

Yikes. I'm not worried about SB because he 3-bet PF, he could have KK or something like that, and we're obviously not worried about that.

But dude. UTG is LPP? Notice that he call/3-bet the flop. This means he has an absolute monster and he is trapping everyone for bets. He doesn't want to raise right after the SB because he fears losing the field. But when you've all put some bets in, he can trap everyone for more bets with a 3-bet.

This is one of the very rare instances that I would not cap this flop; what can UTG possibly have here that you beat? AA is a nice hand and all, but there is no way in hell you are in front here.

Knowing that he has a monster, I'm folding the turn to SBs bet. Yes, it's very rare that I lay aces down especially on the turn, but you are screwed and you don't have much chance of improving. Edit: Actually, you've got enough odds to call the turn to spike an ace as long as it's not raised behind you.

Notice that he pulled the call/3-bet play AGAIN on the turn. He's screaming "HELLO, I HAVE A MONSTER" and you're ignoring him.

Your coldcall on the river is awful. Call the turn, fold the river UI.

[imported_The Vibesman]

After UTG+2 calls the 3bet pf for two and the cap, then does his little call-raise move on the flop, I put him on a set, probably 6's or maybe 9's, so I might cap the flop in the heat of it but it doesn't seem like a good idea in retrospect.

Did you raise the turn knowing that UTG+2 was going to raise again when it got back to him if SB didn't? I think you should have seen that coming. I'm calling down after the flop limp-3bet, esp. in the face of SB's donkbets, because I can't let go in a pot this big, and I'm praying that I'm shown some overplayed pocket KK's or QQ's, and I think maybe SB does have QQ or something, but I expect UTG+2 to show 66.

[BruinEric]

(haven't read responses yet)

This is how I'd play it myself. You have what you say is two passive players betting/raising on the flop after they know you capped pre-flop.

You are almost certainly beat here if your read as presented is correct. But I'd call the whole river too because I'm a showdown fish. UTG+2 is going to turn over a set or better (not trip J's) unless I'm too MUBS.

Every once in a while on Party, you'll see a guy showdown A high on this after betting/raising throughout. Insta-tilt if you'd folded.

[BruinEric]

Wow. I missed the call-raise line - duh. I like your thoughts. This might be where I dump AA. Another case would be a 4-flush on the board with a couple opponents and a passive/made hand only bettor.

Though I justify that call (and bleed money) by citing Miller's "if you never folded AA..." advice.

[groo]

[ QUOTE ]
Your coldcall on the river is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize I'm most likely wrong here, but with nearly 30BB I'm going to have to cold call here. I'm almost certainly beaten and obviously can't raise, but this is Party .50/1 and I think I win this 1 out of 7 times. The cold call costs me 2BB, folding the (improbable) winner costs me 29.5BB.

As stated, I'm probably wrong here...can someone tell me where?

[DCWildcat]

I'd agree with calling the river here. SB's play is very erratic here, and I think as a result he'll call and you'll only be facing 2 bets a reasonable percentage of the time (let's say between 20% and 33% of the time). That'll leave you an average of 9.5ish-10ish to 1 on your call. And the chances of you running into stupidity at a .5/1 table on party are much higher than 9 or 10 to 1. Desparation bluffs alone by SB account for that, let alone counterfeiting &amp; general stupidity. Call.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize I'm most likely wrong here, but with nearly 30BB I'm going to have to cold call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

These two statements are at odds with each other. The pot is 30BB, which should tell you one thing: these people like their hands. And you have to call 2 on the river, which should tell you another thing: they still like their hands.

Why do you "have" to cold call here when you know you're beaten? I could understand you calling one closing the action for sanity purposes, even though I think that's a clear error too, but calling 2 in a pot you can't win is just burning money.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost certainly beaten and obviously can't raise, but this is Party .50/1 and I think I win this 1 out of 7 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is party, but loose passives can catch monster hands too. Loose passives don't raise it up when they have nothing. That's what's so great about playing with them; you know to get out of their way when they finally do find the nerve to bet at you.

This loose passive opponent is not betting, he's not check-raising, he's taking the line that screams MONSTER more than anything else. He's call/3-betting, and he did it twice.

What range of hands do you think a passive opponent is doing this with? Hell, I'd run for the hills if a TAG was doing it, because this is the one line where you know they mean business.

I don't think you'll win this hand 1 time in 1000.

[ QUOTE ]
The cold call costs me 2BB, folding the (improbable) winner costs me 29.5BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

2BB that would have been better used somewhere else. And SB can always raise behind you again for UTG to cap. Would you call another 2BB?

Aces are great but there is a time to lay them down.

[KaiShin]

For 1BB the river is an easy call. For 2BB and not even closing the action I can see a fold here. There's no way you're beating both these opponents.

[Russ McGinley]

SB likely has KK or QQ.

UTG+2 open-limped and called a 3-bet. Then he flat called SB's bet on the flop, then 3-bet when it came back around to him. He did the same on the turn. He then went ahead and raised the river. I would expect to see a boat here. Since he raised the river, I can go ahead and discount him having 96, 94, or 64, unless he's an idiot and doesn't realize his two pair just got counterfieted.

This is a tough hand to get away from. UTG+2, if he indeed does have a set, played it beautifully, figuring you and SB both have overpairs and will continue to ram and jam. That afforded him the luxury of flat calling SB twice and 3-betting when it came back around. That being said, you could definitely fold the river here but its tough to lay down aces when the board isn't real threatening, although in the future, you should be careful to watch out for that flop play by UTG+2.

[groo]

that explains it nicely and helps a great deal...thanks