Supern
07-10-2005, 07:01 PM
Let's say you have a flushdraw with 2 OC's with: AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Flop is: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
You semibluff bet and opponent raises all-in.
Lets say the pot is $19 and you have to call is another $10.
That means you have to win 34% of the time to break even.
If he has TP: T9o you win 53% of the time.
If he has top two: 98o you win 31% of the time.
If he has a set: 99 you win 25% of the time.
So far so good.
How do you weight these possibilites when considering the call?
I include the chance of him bluffing by increasing the chance of him having TP (by 5%).
If I think OP is passive I would use TP-15%, TopTwo-20%, Set-65% and get:
15%*53% + 20%*31% + 65%*25% = 29%
Meaning I have to win 29% of the time -> fold.
If I think OP is aggresive I would use TP-40%, TopTwo-40%, Set-20% and get:
40%*53% + 40%*31% + 25%*25% = 35%
This time I win 35% of the time so I might consider a call.
Is this the way to think about it?
What I am interested to know is the weights I use is ok for making an estimate. How conservative are you guys use at these occations? A draw against a made hand.
Flop is: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
You semibluff bet and opponent raises all-in.
Lets say the pot is $19 and you have to call is another $10.
That means you have to win 34% of the time to break even.
If he has TP: T9o you win 53% of the time.
If he has top two: 98o you win 31% of the time.
If he has a set: 99 you win 25% of the time.
So far so good.
How do you weight these possibilites when considering the call?
I include the chance of him bluffing by increasing the chance of him having TP (by 5%).
If I think OP is passive I would use TP-15%, TopTwo-20%, Set-65% and get:
15%*53% + 20%*31% + 65%*25% = 29%
Meaning I have to win 29% of the time -> fold.
If I think OP is aggresive I would use TP-40%, TopTwo-40%, Set-20% and get:
40%*53% + 40%*31% + 25%*25% = 35%
This time I win 35% of the time so I might consider a call.
Is this the way to think about it?
What I am interested to know is the weights I use is ok for making an estimate. How conservative are you guys use at these occations? A draw against a made hand.