interesting QQ fold.. thoughts?

[raptor517]

***** Hand History for Game 2341239956 *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13813953 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Sunday, July 10, 13:29:06 EDT 2005
Table Table 11784 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Maxrob ( $695 )
Seat 2: EmptyPcktz ( $1135 )
Seat 3: BunnieLee ( $1055 )
Seat 4: jeffpig ( $1030 )
Seat 6: alanballard ( $1415 )
Seat 7: alaq24 ( $2035 )
Seat 8: Lip_Balm ( $1095 )
Seat 9: coronas ( $825 )
Seat 10: spikearama ( $715 )
Trny:13813953 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Lip_Balm [ Qh Qc ]
>You have options at Table 11673 Table!.
EmptyPcktz folds.
BunnieLee folds.
jeffpig calls [50].
alanballard folds.
alaq24 folds.
>You have options at Table 12279 Table!.
Lip_Balm raises [175].
coronas folds.
spikearama folds.
Maxrob folds.
jeffpig raises [300].
Lip_Balm folds.

any thoughts?

holla

[octaveshift]

Isn't a fold like this standard at a $215?

[LBJ]

Hmm...that is interesting. I like the fold.

40% AA
40% KK
10% AK
10% other

How far off is that??
If that is the case, I may take a flop and play if there are no overs. The limp reraise looks very threatening, but he KNOWS you know that. You're saying that he could do that to you every time and you'll fold everything except AA or KK?

[Freudian]

No read on the player? If he is a good player then a fold is probably the right thing.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
You're saying that he could do that to you every time and you'll fold everything except AA or KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite obviously this is not what he's saying. In a vacuum that is true, but if this guy does this even twice in an sng, then I stop respecting it. I think you can fold this with your chips. You're crushed alot, and a race at best most of the time. Occassionally he's an idiot and you fold a big edge, but if he was that dumb (or good for that matter) you'd probably have an idea by level 3.

[microbet]

I think a fold looks right.

But, what if he is a good player and knows he's repping AA or KK and knows you are a good player?

[adanthar]

Is that a minimum reraise or a 475 reraise? I can't tell, but if it's the former, hit a set you sissy. Otherwise, totally standard. holla

[stupidsucker]

It's only 125 back to you... I think you have implied odds to look for a set.

[microbet]

I think it is a min-raise and I think you are right. Call.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
It's only 125 back to you... I think you have implied odds to look for a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just barely. I'm not sure if it's worth it. I'd rather keep the FE.

This is an interesting hand.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
It's only 125 back to you... I think you have implied odds to look for a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

good luck folding a 10 high flop though with all that money out there. i cant make myself do that. im not quite that good yet. holla

[LBJ]

It's not a min-raise. The re-raiser but in 300 chips, but he had already limped. The pot is this:

Blinds = 75
Villian call = 50
Hero raise = 175
Villian re-raise = 300

Pot = 600

Hero must call 175 into a 600 chip pot, representing 3.4-1 odds. If Villian is known to have KK or AA, you need to be sure you can win about 1,250 chips in the pot. This isn't possible, because both of your stacks are under 1,100. I think a fold looks correct here.

[microbet]

I guess you're right about the bets. You'd think we could read a HH by now.

It is possible to get the implied odds though, because the other blinds and HERO's 175 don't count as part of his stack anymore and thus contribute towards the 1250.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's only 125 back to you... I think you have implied odds to look for a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

good luck folding a 10 high flop though with all that money out there. i cant make myself do that. im not quite that good yet. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm in the camp of "call, fold if you don't flop a set" contingent here, if i don't really know anything about my opponent.

dude, you need to work on being able to make the fold on the flop if you are "good enough" to make hte fold preflop. seriously, wtf.

i fold here aproximately 0% of the time, getting >4:1 on the immediate money, and clearly if the flop comes with a Q on it, you're getting paid even more about 95% of the time.

citanul

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's only 125 back to you... I think you have implied odds to look for a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

good luck folding a 10 high flop though with all that money out there. i cant make myself do that. im not quite that good yet. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm in the camp of "call, fold if you don't flop a set" contingent here, if i don't really know anything about my opponent.

dude, you need to work on being able to make the fold on the flop if you are "good enough" to make hte fold preflop. seriously, wtf.

i fold here aproximately 0% of the time, getting >4:1 on the immediate money, and clearly if the flop comes with a Q on it, you're getting paid even more about 95% of the time.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

im not sure if my math is correct, but im pretty sure u need something like 8 to 1 to call for a set.. yes im ignoring implied, but.. seriously man, not many people are going to see a board of J73 and fold when he bets half the pot. i dont care who you are. i really dont like calling 'to flop a set'. if yer claling, i need a better reason than that. holla

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
im not sure if my math is correct, but im pretty sure u need something like 8 to 1 to call for a set.. yes im ignoring implied, but.. seriously man, not many people are going to see a board of J73 and fold when he bets half the pot. i dont care who you are. i really dont like calling 'to flop a set'. if yer claling, i need a better reason than that. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

er, you can't just ignore implied odds, particularly when you have a very strong reason to believe the other player has AA or KK.

btw, we didn't say "call to see if you flop a set" we said to call, and flop a set. you must need to get your luckbox reconfigured or something.

being able to fold to the flop bet when you know you're beaten is just one of those things you have to learn to do. i make a fold of some overpair in a spot like this every day or two. depends how much poker i'm playing /images/graemlins/smile.gif

citanul

[The Don]

Easy fold, I wouldnt even call with the implied odds. Late game stealing FE is more important. In fact, I fold this at the $22s, a reraise that small is an instant sign of AA or KK from my experience.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
yes im ignoring implied,

[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds are a huge factor here especially since you put him on a big pair, that he won't be able to fold post-flop, on a Q high flop. However, you should be able to fold post flop if you won't hit, which is tough, but doable (you are able to fold it PF, why not post?).

Also, some of the equity calculations on this thread are off. You are getting the right price in terms of implied odds. The overlay is not huge, but it's there. I believe that folding PF is not exploiting villain's weakness to the full, which is, in other words, leaving money on the table. I love it when players make those smalllish reraises with big hands. It's very exploitable.

[raptor517]

folding 77 on a 236 flop isnt the same as folding QQ on a J63 flop. holla

[citanul]

it is when you know the guy has AA or KK...
all depends on how sure you can be.
if you can't be that sure with the guy, then you shouldn't be folding preflop...

citanul

[curtains]

I would fold too. Sometimes I just flat call with QQ, but I like raising to 150-200 here.

[Pete]

jeffpig is so wild i would call

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]

i'm in the camp of "call, fold if you don't flop a set" contingent here, if i don't really know anything about my opponent.


[/ QUOTE ]

This seems totally tweaked to me.

To be clear... you are advocating playing QQ for set value here?

If Raptor held TT, would you advocate the same play? What about 22?

[Daliman]

Unless this guy is a known idiot or hairbrain, this is an EASY fold.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
To be clear... you are advocating playing QQ for set value here?

If Raptor held TT, would you advocate the same play? What about 22?

[/ QUOTE ]

We have the read and he's getting odds, so, yeah to all 3.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]

We have the read and he's getting odds, so, yeah to all 3

[/ QUOTE ]

care to go over those? im confident you are incorrect.

[adanthar]

He's calling 175 and playing for the other guy's stack plus the pot which is gonna be something like 1200 total.

Add in the 10 out flops (KJT, JT9) and the times he slowplay checks the flop and you catch a 2 outer and I think you have enough here.

[mlagoo]

i think because he's about 90% to have AA or KK here -- I don't think anyone makes this raise with AK, they would likely sooner make it with any two cards -- you are about 99% to felt him on a Q high flop. I call for a set.

I mean, if you go in telling yourself you'll get away from anything else... you can do it.

[microbet]

One would not be likely to get into this position with 22 or TT, but once there, being almost certain you are up against AA or KK, QQ is close to the same as TT or 22. TT would be the best of the three if you really are up against AA or KK.

When I was misunderstanding the stacks and thought it was 125 to call, it seemed like a good call. At 175, I think is seems like a bit on the bad side.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Add in the 10 out flops (KJT, JT9) and the times he slowplay checks the flop and you catch a 2 outer and I think you have enough here.

[/ QUOTE ]

These situations are far too remote to add in to the equation, even if as a rough estimation.



[ QUOTE ]
He's calling 175 and playing for the other guy's stack plus the pot which is gonna be something like 1200 total.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 1280:175 which equals 7.3:1. This of course is less than the 7.5:1 needed to hit a set. Even when you throw in an outside possibility that he may do this with a hand like AK or (gasp) AQ, there simply is not enough overlay.

PS. check my #s:

25 = sb
50 = bb
175 = raptor's raise
1030 = villains stack

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting 1280:175 which equals 7.3:1. This of course is less than the 7.5:1 needed to hit a set. Even when you throw in an outside possibility that he may do this with a hand like AK or (gasp) AQ, there simply is not enough overlay.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hero has to call 125 more, not 175, so these numbers are off. I don't understand why people, not only you, keep miscalculating the equity in this simple hand. You have the odds (implied, surely) to hit a set. I call here.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting 1280:175 which equals 7.3:1. This of course is less than the 7.5:1 needed to hit a set. Even when you throw in an outside possibility that he may do this with a hand like AK or (gasp) AQ, there simply is not enough overlay.

PS. check my #s:

25 = sb
50 = bb
175 = raptor's raise
1030 = villains stack

[/ QUOTE ]

its horrible to even THINK about doing the odds that way, much less actually put it on the screen. holla

[microbet]

There's a better chance that he doesn't have AA or KK, than of him having AA or KK, your hitting a set, and not getting his stack.

Micro
Who is so dumb he still doesn't know if you have to call 125 or 175.

[johnnybeef]

Post deleted by johnnybeef

[rydazzle]

I agree, pls check my math (I am assuming the raises are "raise to" and that pot is 600 now from HH, jbeef confirmed):

If you will fold if your Qs dont make a set on the flop, then:

stack if fold = 920
stack if call and lose = 795
stack if call and win = X
p(hitting set) = 1/8

1/8(X) + 7/8(795) > 920
X > 1795

so, your stack must be 1795 after hitting a set to beat your fold equity. This translates to needing about 300 chips more from jp after flopping a set (your 795 + 725 pot + ~300 more from jp)...not entirely unreasonable implied odds if you think he'll call/make a bet >=300 with a Q high board.

v. interesting post, again pls check my math

[PrayingMantis]

I'm not sure I understand your last post, johnnybeef.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
its horrible to even THINK about doing the odds that way, much less actually put it on the screen. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

care to expand on that statement?

[microbet]

I think he's saying, don't count yer chickens before they hatch.

(see how I said "yer" instead of "your" - authentic, ain't it?)

[rydazzle]

bump

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I understand your last post, johnnybeef.

[/ QUOTE ]

one of us has misread the hh.

[adanthar]

ok, I give up on reading party HH raise numbers so can somebody just give me the exact number of chips I have to call or not call? my brain hurts

[citanul]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t695)
UTG (t1135)
UTG+1 (t1055)
MP1 (t1030)
MP2 (t1415)
MP3 (t2035)
Hero (t1095)
Button (t825)
SB (t715)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t175</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t350</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t600

so, it's a limp reraise, for those who thought that was just like a minireraise or something, and it's 175 more to call, which honestly, i had thought was 125 previously as well.

citanul

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t695)
UTG (t1135)
UTG+1 (t1055)
MP1 (t1030)
MP2 (t1415)
MP3 (t2035)
Hero (t1095)
Button (t825)
SB (t715)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t175</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t350</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t600

so, it's a limp reraise, for those who thought that was just like a minireraise or something, and it's 175 more to call, which honestly, i had thought was 125 previously as well.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

therefor making this a clear fold. good job citanul, i knew you were a greenie for some reason.

[rydazzle]

scrub this, HH read was whacked....dont want to re-do it.

[curtains]

I completely misread the hand when I first read it btw...

[Taraz]

I just want to emphasize to anybody reading this who is kind of new that this is a $215 SNG. Folding here in any level below the $109's is horribly wrong IMO.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
I just want to emphasize to anybody reading this who is kind of new that this is a $215 SNG. Folding here in any level below the $109's is horribly wrong IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, ditto, at least without some kind of otherworldly read on MP1.