Too passive on the turn? (no hand content)

[MikeRand2000]

Hey all -

Was just wondering: in about 6k hands @ Poker Stars 0.05/0.10, I have an overall aggression factor of 2.49 (exl. flop) and a turn aggression factor of 2.49. Also, I'm folding about 3.44% of my hands on the turn.

Most of my other stats look pretty standard (might be chasing a bit with 41% WSD, 44% W$SD).

All that being said, I get the terrible feeling that I'm falling into the "use the free card play to see cheap showdowns" trap with my marginal made hands. Any ideas on a) if my stats tell you that this is the case or b) where I should look otherwise? I could definitely post 1-2 hands but I think it's a bigger problem than that.

Any advice would be appreciated.

Thanks,

Mike

[Dave G.]

Yes, post some hands, that will be of much more benefit.

2.49 is actually a bit high for turn aggression, but it's not too bad. Definitely not too passive.

Your went to showdown is way too high, and this is reflected by your won at showdown being too low. You're going too far with losing hands and costing yourself a packet.

Post some hands where you think you've had these difficulties to get a more concrete idea of what you need to improve on.

[Rev. Good Will]

pssssh, stats

your sample size is a little small, so dont worry bout it too much.

grrr, i can't find the awesome entity post about stats

bottom line, who cares about your WSD % or the W$SD %? If you feel you arn't making any mistakes, who cares what your stats say? make the correct plays, and the stats will follow

EDIT - and if/when you do post hands, provide reads/thought processes/something useful other than the actual hand or I will eat your firstborn /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[thesharpie]

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bottom line, who cares about your WSD % or the W$SD %? If you feel you arn't making any mistakes, who cares what your stats say? make the correct plays, and the stats will follow


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Over 6k hands he's more likely to be going too far and winning too little at showdown than this being a sample size issue, so why not make sure and plug it?

[Dave G.]

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grrr, i can't find the awesome entity post about stats

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I remember this post. Entity's point was that after you have a solid foundation, stats don't really help much to fine tune your game. However, until you have this solid foundation, statistics about your play are extremely relevant and worth analysing.

[ QUOTE ]
bottom line, who cares about your WSD % or the W$SD %? If you feel you arn't making any mistakes, who cares what your stats say? make the correct plays, and the stats will follow

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I don't think this is good advice at all. His went to showdown is clearly, very clearly, way too high. It indicates a major leak in his game. It says he isn't making the correct plays a lot of the time. So telling him to just "keep playing that way" is not solving the problem.

Now, what situations he's doing this in, we can't know until some specific situations are analysed, but these figures most definitely point to a general problem of going too far with second best hands. Ignoring this evidence is only going to hurt his game.

[Rev. Good Will]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

bottom line, who cares about your WSD % or the W$SD %? If you feel you arn't making any mistakes, who cares what your stats say? make the correct plays, and the stats will follow


[/ QUOTE ]

Over 6k hands he's more likely to be going too far and winning too little at showdown than this being a sample size issue, so why not make sure and plug it?

[/ QUOTE ]

true, he does feel he is making a mistake, I just wanted to make the point that he should be posting hands instead

[MikeRand2000]

Interesting...I didn't even think that my WSD was too high (until I went back to read the primer).

I guess on that point: what is the point of raising the flop with a marginal hand if you're going to give up on the turn/river all the time? I have a feeling (would have to find some hands) that I'm doing a lot of 2nd-best hand raising in large pots and always calling down to the river.

But is that wrong? If I'm not supposed to call down to the river, what's the point of knocking people out with a raise?

/EDIT/

Let me rephrase. 4 player raised pot (8.5SB, assume small blind didn't follow my AJ raise from button). Bet comes to me with middle pair, ace kicker on flop of KJ7. I raise. People fold and player 1 just calls.

Turn comes 4 (just using ranks here for clarity). Player bets. Why do I fold here? I have at least 10% equity even if they do have K. If they don't, my equity could be much higher (60-70%). Even at 80% chance they have a king, I'm still looking at roughly 20%+ equity, hence the call.

Then nothing comes on river and I'm forced to call 6+ bet pot for 1 bet because, well, I only have to be right 1 in 7.

Basically, I'm just getting sucked down this hole where I don't want to give up hands in large pots, especially if it's only going to cost me 2 more big bets to show.

[Dave G.]

The point of raising with these hands is that by limiting the field you improve your chances of winning. You might be behind to a king here, but you can improve to a better hand. Raising is better than calling because you are knocking people out of the pot, improving your equity. If your draw were stronger, such as a flush draw, you wouldn't raise to knock people out, because you don't care if they come along with you (you will probably beat them if your draw comes in). You might raise for other reasons, but not to knock anyone out.

When you raise a hand, don't marry yourself to it. You're trying to improve your chances of winning. If you fold the turn after raising, that's OK, as long as you are no longer getting odds to draw to a better hand and think you're behind.

And in this example, against a passive opponent, I'd probably fold the turn. This really depends on your reads of the players you're up against. If he's capable of betting less than top pair, go ahead and call it down. If he's passive and weak, you can let this go on the turn, the pot isn't really offering you proper odds to continue (7.5:1 and you need 8.2:1 to call for your outs. Also, he might have AK in which case your A outs are no good or KJ in which case your J outs are no good). You're getting insufficient odds to continue on the turn so you can lay it down.

But post specific hands you've played for more concrete advice and include reads of your opponents.

[MikeRand2000]

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But post specific hands you've played for more concrete advice and include reads of your opponents.

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Here's the problem: I don't even have that gut feeling about which hands I'm playing wrong. You know, that little voice that says, "Ewwww, I probably shouldn't have done that", then makes you throw the hand history up on 2+2? In this specific case (overplaying to showdown), I just have no idea which hands were mistakes.

Is there any way I can drill one level deeper in my Poker Tracker stats to start to drill into the 40% WSD/44% W$SD issues?