30/60 Jamming the turn

[Nightwish]

I'm not the BB (hero) in this hand.

This transpired in an online 30/60 game. UTG (LAG, but not crazy) limps, and everyone folds to the CO, who raises. It's the CO's first hand at this table, but hero knows that the CO is a TAG. SB folds, hero calls with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif in the BB, and UTG calls too. 3 to the flop.

Flop {6.5 SB}: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif

Checked to the CO who bets, hero check-raises, UTG calls two cold, and CO calls.

Turn {6.25 BB}: (8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero bets, UTG calls, CO now raises, and hero 3-bets.


What do you guys think of hero's play?

[The Truth]

I would 3-bet preflop.

I like the flop.

Turn: Come again?

[NYplayer]

call me weak tight but i'm folding on the flop. It's not that good for you, get out now. given that you played the flop the way you did and got called in both spots i'd check call the turn or hope it gets checked through. once it's raised you should just call. 3 betting in a muliway pot is bad.

[JimmyV]

I check-fold this turn 20% of the time and bet-fold it 75%. God only knows what I do the other 5%, but I don't see how you can rule out button having a better club & an overpair, or utg cold-calling again with the made flush or set or something. I see the rationale of forcing out better clubs in utg's hand but this is an expensive gamble since CO is allowed to be dealt clubs too. And if utg has the A /images/graemlins/club.gif, as seems likely, the Jaws of Life won't knock him out.

J

[bernie]

Are you missing the open ender that the OP just turned? CO likely doesn't have the flush at this time. He'd likely have jammed the flop with a flush draw.

b

[JimmyV]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you missing the open ender that the OP just turned? CO likely doesn't have the flush at this time. He'd likely have jammed the flop with a flush draw.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I was missing it. I check-call but not two cold.

Thanks.

[ike]

Perfect.

[Nightwish]

Here are my thoughts on this hand. Preflop is fine. The flop is fine as a variation.

Now let's talk about the turn. Hero has to follow up his flop check-raise with a turn bet, but he has also turned an open-ended straight draw. UTG calls, which is not good for hero, but now the CO raises. So what does the CO have? Since hero knows that CO is a TAG, it's probably not AT (unless it's AcTx) because the CO would have 3-bet that on the flop. Could CO have turned a flush? Maybe, but he may have 3-bet that on the flop too. CO may also AcAx/KcKx or a flopped set. Regardless, unless the CO is overplaying a lone Ac in a protected pot, hero is almost certainly behind and needs help on the river. In fact, hero is unlikely to have more than 5 outs because the 9c is likely compromised. And in the worst-case and fairly realistic scenario, hero is drawing dead. So hero's 3-bet is just bad. It's another example of the kind of -EV high-variance chip spewage that is now all too commonly advocated here.

As I told you, I'm not the hero in this hand. Actually, I was the CO, and I had TT. I knew that the BB's (hero's) stats were 17.88/9.98/1.10. So when he called preflop and then check-raised the flop, I knew what he likely had. I was putting him on AT/A8/T8/55/88. I didn't think he would check-raise with a flush draw because he wouldn't want to drive out UTG. UTG might be on a flush draw because he called two cold, but he may also have lots of other hands here. Regardless, I decided to wait till the turn to raise because I was convinced that BB would bet the turn.

That turn club was not a good card for me in the sense of UTG perhaps having turned a flush, but when he just called the turn, I knew I still had him beat so I raised. But when BB 3-bet, I had to reconsider. After all, he must know that I wouldn't be raising here with crap, right? I raise with a flush on the board, and he's telling me he's the one who has it?? Alright, I guess I have to call down.

The rest of the action went as follows. UTG folded to the 3-bet, and I called. The river was a 7. BB bet again, and I called.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
Perfect.

[/ QUOTE ]
Any reasoning for why the turn 3-bet is perfect?

[JimmyV]

Why didn't you cap the flop? It might have made the turn easier to play also.

[Ryno]

"Turn: Come again?"

LOL. Nuff said.

[ike]

To fold an 8-Q of clubs from UTG's hand, mainly. Basically, here's my reasoning:
You can't possibly fold here, so the 3bet is an investment of 1 more BB into an 11.5BB pot that you will sometimes improve to win. If it can ever, ever happen that you take the pot down here, and I mean ever like 2% of the time, thats significant. If you can get UTG to fold a higher club, a 7, or a 9, thats also huge. I haven't done the math and its hard to say what reasonable asssumptions to base that math on would be, but I think the 3bet comes out to be better than a call.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
To fold an 8-Q of clubs from UTG's hand, mainly. Basically, here's my reasoning:
You can't possibly fold here, so the 3bet is an investment of 1 more BB into an 11.5BB pot that you will sometimes improve to win. If it can ever, ever happen that you take the pot down here, and I mean ever like 2% of the time, thats significant. If you can get UTG to fold a higher club, a 7, or a 9, thats also huge. I haven't done the math and its hard to say what reasonable asssumptions to base that math on would be, but I think the 3bet comes out to be better than a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
To fold an 8-Q of clubs from UTG's hand, mainly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh?? You're trying to get him to fold a single hand? And you think a loose UTG will fold a Q high flush?? And what makes you think UTG has a flush?

[ QUOTE ]

Basically, here's my reasoning:
You can't possibly fold here, so the 3bet is an investment of 1 more BB into an 11.5BB pot that you will sometimes improve to win. If it can ever, ever happen that you take the pot down here, and I mean ever like 2% of the time, thats significant. If you can get UTG to fold a higher club, a 7, or a 9, thats also huge. I haven't done the math and its hard to say what reasonable asssumptions to base that math on would be, but I think the 3bet comes out to be better than a call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Alright, let's go through the math. There are 10.25 BB in the pot (no clue where you're getting 11.5) when the action is to the BB. So if you think 3-betting the turn is right just because the others might fold, you need them to fold at least 9 percent of the time. There's no way you will take it down right here that often. But of course, a reasonable assumption is that the BB also has 0-5 outs. The problem, of course, is that even 4 outs is not enough. So the BB would have to assume that he has 5 outs or more to make even a call correct, much less a 3-bet.

Again, I stand by my original statement that this sort of play is -EV high-variance chip spewing.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Huh?? You're trying to get him to fold a single hand? And you think a loose UTG will fold a Q high flush?? And what makes you think UTG has a flush?


[/ QUOTE ]

You're trying to fold a higher flush draw by representing a made flush or a higher flush draw card. Make sense now?

b

[ike]

Not Q8c exactly. A club of rank between 8 and Q (if he folds A or K thats also great, but he won't).
I should have said its an 11.25 BB pot; counted the SB wrong. But its 11.25 not 10.25 because if we're deciding between calling and raising (you apparently think a fold is in order? if so i think you're nuts) one more bet of ours is effectively already in the middle.
Finally, your estimate of 0-5 outs is absurdly low. We have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw and 2 more outs to a set. If we go to the river heads up with the CO, of the hands we can reasonably expect him to have, only a made flush (which has us drawing dead) has us drawing to much fewer than 6 outs. Against the hand you actually had, for instance, the BB had 14 outs.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Huh?? You're trying to get him to fold a single hand? And you think a loose UTG will fold a Q high flush?? And what makes you think UTG has a flush?


[/ QUOTE ]

You're trying to fold a higher flush draw by representing a made flush or a higher flush draw card. Make sense now?


[/ QUOTE ]
Did the CO magically disappear or something? He's the one who raised the turn, so why do you think that he doesn't have a made flush or even a big club? It turned out in this case that he didn't, but I claim that this is pretty rare.

You're right that BB will very likely get UTG to fold a Qc (though not an Ac or maybe even a Kc), but there are two opponents here.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
I should have said its an 11.25 BB pot; counted the SB wrong. But its 11.25 not 10.25 because if we're deciding between calling and raising (you apparently think a fold is in order? if so i think you're nuts) one more bet of ours is effectively already in the middle.


[/ QUOTE ]
Alright, let's go through it again. There are 6.25 BB in the pot at the beginning of the turn. BB bets, UTG calls, CO raises -- so 4 BB have gone in the pot since the beginning of the turn. BB is now getting 10.25:1, correct? Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds. The only way I can see you getting 11.25:1 is that you're assuming that UTG will call too, but then you should also realize that he'll 3-bet some fraction of the time because he'll be the one with the made A high flush.

[ QUOTE ]

Finally, your estimate of 0-5 outs is absurdly low. We have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw and 2 more outs to a set. If we go to the river heads up with the CO, of the hands we can reasonably expect him to have, only a made flush (which has us drawing dead) has us drawing to much fewer than 6 outs. Against the hand you actually had, for instance, the BB had 14 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think counting a 7 high flush draw as outs is ridiculously optimistic. It just won't happen that often in this specific situation where the CO has shown aggression on the turn. I happened to have had one of only three hands I could have had that didn't have a big club (or any club). But alright, let's say you have at most 8 outs. Your call is +EV, but your raise still isn't.

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]
Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm comparing calling and raising. In other words I'm trying to decide if its worth putting an additional bet into the 10.25 BB pot beyond the 1 I'm putting in to call. Not counting the 1 BB that goes in for the call is doing the math wrong.
[ QUOTE ]
I think counting a 7 high flush draw as outs is ridiculously optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're wrong. If BB can get it heads up going to the river this flush should frequently be good. Why is TT one of only 3 hands you can have that don't contain a dominating club? Or, more generally, what do you feel the CO's hand range is, and why?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
He's the one who raised the turn, so why do you think that he doesn't have a made flush or even a big club?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he had the made flush, he'd likely have reraised the flop with his flush draw + likely at least 1 overcard. Especially if hes a TAG.

He might have a big club. He might not be putting you on a flush as you did a protection raise on the flop. If he/or UTG caps, then you have a decision to make.

b

[DpR]

Results posted before I got to the thread, but FWIW, I also think he is spewing chips. While there is spefic distribution of cards that could make this a great play (and it appears that the cards were in such a distribution here as he may have bought himself a ton of outs), I do not think that is the case often enough. Obviously if you have a big club he is just spewing (could cost him 3BB-4BBs too so it better gain him a lot of equity).

Generally speaking, making semi-bluff turn raises when you might be drawing dead is not the greatest play.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Your call is +EV, but your raise still isn't

[/ QUOTE ]

Ike's explained it pretty well. It's huge EV if you get a higher flush card to fold that allows you to win if it hits. You can gain up to 7 outs alone. That can add another 15% to your chances.

[ QUOTE ]
Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you should be counting the bets you might make after you hit your hand as part of your odds. Along with the likely called bets from your raise.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Generally speaking, making semi-bluff turn raises when you might be drawing dead is not the greatest play

[/ QUOTE ]

So is seeing monsters under the bed that might not be there.

b

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm comparing calling and raising. In other words I'm trying to decide if its worth putting an additional bet into the 10.25 BB pot beyond the 1 I'm putting in to call. Not counting the 1 BB that goes in for the call is doing the math wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]
Since this is not HU, let's make some simple assumptions about UTG. Let's assume that he'll call if BB calls and fold if BB 3-bets. Let's also assume that BB is behind to the CO right now, and that if the BB 3-bets, the CO will cap with a certain probability p. Then, BB is getting 11.25:1 (counting the bet that UTG will put in if BB calls) to call and 6.625 - 1.5417*p to 1 if he 3-bets. In other words, if BB 3-bets and is behind, his odds vary linearly with p between 6.625:1 and 5.083:1.

Not very good, eh? Certainly not unless the flush draw is still good.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think counting a 7 high flush draw as outs is ridiculously optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're wrong. If BB can get it heads up going to the river this flush should frequently be good. Why is TT one of only 3 hands you can have that don't contain a dominating club? Or, more generally, what do you feel the CO's hand range is, and why?

[/ QUOTE ]
CO posted and raised preflop, but his raise is unlikely to be a steal because UTG had already limped into the pot. So CO has something at that point, but his range is pretty broad. The flop does not provide much information, but the turn does. CO is very unlikely to have 97, so he's saying he has a made flush, overpair with a big club, a set, or a lone Ac. The only good flush draws for BB are if the CO has a set.

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]
In other words, if BB 3-bets and is behind, his odds vary linearly with p between 6.625:1 and 5.083:1.

Not very good, eh? Certainly not unless the flush draw is still good.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, very good. Even if CO has AxAc and is capping with P = 1, BB is drawing to 8 outs and getting a more-than-fair price.

[bernie]

From HEPFAP: (read starting on p167) When the pot gets big, this fact should dominate your thinking.

[ QUOTE ]
CO posted and raised preflop, but his raise is unlikely to be a steal because UTG had already limped into the pot. So CO has something at that point, but his range is pretty broad. The flop does not provide much information, but the turn does.

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop told me that the CO unlikely has a flush draw, therefore, he doesn't have the made flush on the turn. This is one reason I jam alot of hands on the flop. I could've reraised this flop with a wide range of hands. If anything, your flop play helped define your hand coupled with your turn raise. I'd have put you on an overpair (some w/possible flush draws but not necesary since my bet out on the turn is usually routine after c/r the flop so you don't have to put me on a flush either. I'm giving you credit for thinking this deep), a set, maybe A/big kick with a turned flush draw which, in that case, puts me ahead of you. So if that's the case, knocking out UTG also helps free up a possible 4-5 outs for overcards he might have on me.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
No, very good. Even if CO has AxAc and is capping with P = 1, BB is drawing to 8 outs and getting a more-than-fair price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Though that would be a tough turn cap with only rockets. I wouldn't cap that with aces. I'd have to really know the player to pull that one. Even then...

b

[DpR]

How bout the monsters staring you right in the face? Many poster are just insisting they are a mirage.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
How bout the monsters staring you right in the face? Many poster are just insisting they are a mirage.

[/ QUOTE ]

What monster is staring me in the face here? Look at my other responses along with Ike's, I think I read it pretty clear from the BBs perspective. CO is unlikely to have a flush on the turn. At most, he has a set.

Hindsight, even if he turned his hand over and showed me his set, I'd 3 bet this turn to try and get UTG out.

b