I don't see why...

[DavidC]

From Mason's article:

[ QUOTE ]
This is obviously good news for me. If either player behind me had the A or the Q there would almost always be a bet. Furthermore, while the player in the small blind might also have one of these cards, when he checks he is less likely to hold it, especially the ace. (I hope everyone sees why he's less likely to check the ace than the queen.)


[/ QUOTE ]

I stopped reading the article at this point.

I'd like to post my thoughts on the SB's actions, if the SB were to have the Ad or Qd. If anyone could offer some analysis or show me where I've gone wrong, that would be awesome, because I don't understand why an ace is more likely to be betting here than a Q.

---

The A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif has to bet because they've got the deck crippled, and no one else will bet with a baby flush, but they may call with one.

The Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif I feel should not be checkraising in this hand, because they stand to lose the most in this manner when behind, but gain fairly little, especially if the bettor is in LP and they drive out the PFR, who would have likely been drawing dead unless raising.

But I do think that the Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif should bet out, in order to get money in the pot as the favourite.

Either player betting into the PFR here shows a lot of strength, which of course either means strength or a bluff, but not a marginal value bet.

[DavidC]

Read the article, still don't see why...

[DavidC]

bump

[StellarWind]

I think you are searching for something that isn't there.

Since Mason is drawing an inference about what SB's hand might be, it cannot be based on some point of theory that is so abstruse that almost no one is aware of it. SB is presumably an ordinary player making ordinary plays.

You bet the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif because it is good and you want to be paid. No doubt you probably should bet the Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif as well but this is much less of a sure thing and many players checkcall rather than risking the pain of being raised and losing an extra bet.

Therefore an ordinary SB is more likely to have the queen on the river than the ace.

Actually it makes more sense to me to checkraise with the ace than with the queen. If you decide to checkraise either card you are most likely to succeed because the other card bets. So do you want to be the queen checkraising the ace or the ace checkraising the queen?

Not that I'm saying that checkraising with the ace is a good play, but I like it much better than checkraising with the queen.

[DavidC]

Appreciated.

Thanks, bro.