whipsaw mlb picks 7/10

[whipsaw]

Pirates +168
Nationals +109
Indians +190
Orioles +128
Royals +140

Writeups to come tomorrow morning. Make the plays, get paid off.

YTD 35-34 (+1023)

[wadea]

Whipsaw,

I fully agree with these picks. The Nationals was a marginal pick and the line moved enough overnight that I now see it as a break-even proposition. Indians and Pirates are both running into aces in Pedro and Randy, but they are both undervalued. Those are my two biggest picks today. The Orioles pitcher Lopez allows about 4 fewer runs/9inns at home vs. road. They are my next biggest pick. In all, I've got seven picks today and here they are in order of the value I believe they offer:

PIT +155
CLE +190
BAL +127
SEA +180
KC +140
TOR +150
TB +133 (barely squeezed in)

I continue to marvel at the similarities in our picks. I'm always happy to see your picks b/c I feel like it somewhat validates my logic. Good luck,

-w.a.

[whipsaw]

Some really nice plays today, I think. Let's have a big day.

Pirates +168

Pedro's form has gotten worse in the last couple of weeks, which is probably because he's been so overworked in the first half (122 IP so far). He usually starts to tire when he gets too many innings in. Kip Wells has been pretty good at home, with an ERA under 2.50. Recently he's been on fire at home, giving up just two earned runs in his last four home starts. I really like this price on the Bucs.

Nationals +109

Tough luck loss for Loaiza last time out against the Phils, giving up just two runs over 8 innings. Esteban has been good lately, winning 4 of his last 5 outings. Lieber, on the other hand, has been slipping, winless in his last five starts. I'll take the Nats as road doggies here.

Indians +190

Westbrook has been good lately, winning 4 of his last five starts. Overall, the Indians have been in good form. I think we all know to fade the Yankees, but even apart from that, Johnson has not been stellar. He's been beaten up pretty good in 2 of his last four starts. +190 for the Indians is plenty to make this a +EV play.

Orioles +128

Lopez spanked the Sox last time he pitched against them. While his last three starts haven't been great, he got helped out by some bad defense in the last one to the tune of five unearned extra runs. If you look to his last three home starts, his numbers are much better. Wakefield got beat up pretty nicely last time out against the O's, although he's been pitching well lately (and getting nice run support). In Baltimore, I think this is a coin flip at worst for the Birds, and really they should be favored a bit.

Royals +140

Carrasco just got done spanking the Twins two starts ago in Minnesota. In fact, Carrasco has always spanked the Twins. He's been the only consistent starter for KC in the last month and a half. Silva just got done giving up six runs to KC two starts ago, a game he would've lost if his team hadn't scored eleven. The Royals have a nice chance to win this home game, and at the price of +140 I'm all over this.

Good luck everyone! Comments appreciated.

[whipsaw]

Not a huge fan of your SEA play... Santana has been pretty good at home and Meche got beat up for 5 runs last time against LAA.

I think the TOR play is marginal considering Towers' history.

[whipsaw]

OUCH... couple of tough extra inning losses in here

Pirates L +168
Nationals L +109
Indians L +190
Orioles W +128
Royals L +140

YTD 36-38 (+751)