I can call this flop right?

[BWillie]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG is TAG. Button is fish.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

[Greg J]

3 outs for a gutshot (not 4 -- it's ass ended) and 1 more for the BD flush gives you ~10.5:1. You are getting 9.5 immidiate odds (rake), but you are getting the implied odds to make this call, esp since you are closing the action. Calling is okay -- it's kinda close.

[Cancer Merchant]

You're getting 10:1 with 5.5 outs (4 gutshot + 1.5 Backdoor Flush) outs. This is enough to call. If you discount the BDF outs, since they're non-nut, it's 10.5:1; not a horrible call, especially when closing the action.

[Greg J]

I think you are being a little generous. You should not give 4 full outs for a one card ass ender.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

its fine.

[newfant]

Quick and dirty:

Assume that on the turn, you win if you hit your gutshot. 3 outs. 47 cards to come. 6.4% chance of hitting on the turn. The pot is laying you 9.5:1 which means you have a 9.5% chance to win. However, I think a safe assumption is that you will get at least 2 more BBs out of UTG due to his PF raise and lead on flop, so the implied odds mean the pot is laying you 13.5:1 or 6.9%.

With these assumptions it's a close fold. However, if you think you can get another BB out of someone on the turn or river, then the pot is laying 15.1:1 or 6% and you can call. Plus, you have the back-door flush which may be good if it hits. However, there will be instances where button has a 7 and you will end up splitting the pot so you can prolly figure you have right around 3 outs at the moment.

I think you can assume here that you can get 3 more BBs out of someone on the turn and the river, so I would make this call. If this call is a mistake, I think it's a small one.

Let's do the turn:
The pot is laying you 6.75:1. Let's assume you'll get one more BB out of UTG on the river, so the pot is really laying you 7.75:1. You now have a flush draw. This time, let's put UTG on a hand range and use pokerstove (www.pokerstove.com) to figure our equity. Since UTG is TAG, let's put him on 99-AA, and AK-AQ and AJs.

With UTG's range you have 31% equity. Very nice. 7.75:1 is 11.5%, so the turn is a much easier call than the river.

Well played.

Edited to add: On the river, even if we assume UTG already has a pair higher than a seven, you still have 21% equity and should call.

[Greg J]

New avatar -- classy as always.

[thesharpie]

Who check raises this turn? I probably always would if he's capable of betting the flop and turn with unimproved overcards. He would have to be weak to try this if he's likely to have an overpair.

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
Who check raises this turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting idea.

If villain is a true TAG (and in my PokerTracker database I only see about 3 true TAGs over the 5000 hands I've played), then I estimate his range as AK, AQ, AJs and TT-AA. So, he will have overcards here 36 times out of 66 or 55% of the time (is that math right?).

If we check-raise, we are putting 2 BBs into a 6.75BB pot, so if he would fold his overcards here even 30% of the time this play should be profitable (especially given our likely outs).

However, if villian only raises AK and TT-AA UTG, then he only has overcards 16/46 times or 35% and he would need to fold his overcards almost every time for this to be profitable. Actually, we prolly need to exclude A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif from being folded so his likelihood of folding here is prolly no better than 32%.

I think I'm going to try this play in the future and see how it works out. Thanks for the suggestion.

[turaho]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, even if we assume UTG already has a pair higher than a seven, you still have 21% equity and should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling the river is the worst possible idea ever. You have 7 high. Do you really think UTG has been bluffing this entire hand with a worse hand?

[newfant]

Actually I meant "on the turn." I rarely call down with 7 high. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[turaho]

I was hoping that's what you meant. Or else that would have been my nomination for "Worst Advice Ever Given on 2+2". /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[lionhorse]

75s in the BB - muck city. ESPECIALLY since you have a TA UTG raising.

You may have enough implied odds to chase your gutshot, but I'd sooner throw it away.

This is why playing very marginal hands can be dangerous - you get yourself in dicey situations that result in more mistakes.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]

UTG is TAG.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>,

[/ QUOTE ]

With the above statement, what's with the preflop call. I would have avoided the situation all together. Once your in the hand you are getting good enough odds on the flop call, and the turn you improve. So it's only the preflop I would question

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
75s in the BB - muck city. ESPECIALLY since you have a TA UTG raising.

You may have enough implied odds to chase your gutshot, but I'd sooner throw it away.

This is why playing very marginal hands can be dangerous - you get yourself in dicey situations that result in more mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

uh hero played the hand fine, the call preflop is something you really should be making

the flop call is fine, as is the turn call, and river fold is obvious .. very standard boring hand

its also funny that the new group of posters has no idea who CDC is

[TomBrooks]

Note that for better responses, don't post the whole hand. Stop the action where you want us to evaluate the decision.

You can just marginally call this flop. I'll give you 3 outs max for the gutshot because the 8 puts 89T on the board with another card to come on the river. I'll give you 1.25 for the low BD FD. Thats 4.25 outs.

That being said, I always call with three to a SF just for kicks to try to make it.

[Fadook]

[ QUOTE ]

uh hero played the hand fine, the call preflop is something you really should be making

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been reading a number of posts from experienced board members/players who advocate similar actions, and I really don't get it. I'm not criticizing any of you guys, but I'd really like to see an explanation of the thought process. In this case, a TAG has raised, and there are three players already in the pot. How can 57s really have sufficient equity to call in these circumstances?

[TomBrooks]

In the BB, I call a raise with any hand I would play for one bet from Late Position. I would like to see 4 players in to call with 75s, especially since the raise came from UTG. Hero had 3 opponents in on this hand. Marginal call.

[Greg J]

He is getting 7.5:1 to call a suited one gapper versus 2 guys that are poor enough to cold call a Tag's preflop raise. His relative position to the raiser is perfect. This call is fine.

[kleinstadt1]

I might not call this PF raise, maybe about half the time.

I'm not sure you can call the flop. You have a backdoor flush and a gutshot (about 5.5 outs according to SSH). But notice that if you hit your gutshot, you don't have the nut straight, and are vulnerable to re-draws to a lone jack. You are getting about 10.5:1 on the flop, but your hand (in my estimation) is worth about 3 clean outs, max. I would dump it on the flop.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
Who check raises this turn? I probably always would if he's capable of betting the flop and turn with unimproved overcards. He would have to be weak to try this if he's likely to have an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif on the turn is the PERFECT card to make the semi-bluff c/r play. You have to bet the river no matter what though. If UTG has overcards he's going to fold. If he has an overpair and he's a 2+2er he going to fold the river UI. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I've made this play against players that never fold ANYTHING and it even works a lot of the time against them. People get conditioned that when they are c/r on the turn (especially when the board pairs) they are behind if they only have one pair. Use this to your advantage.

If you do happen to get picked off on this move then don't use it anymore at that table. However, the next time you c/r with the goods you're gonna get called down. So even if you lose this time you could gain it back later.