$33 Bubble: Wow, -EV to call with AKo vs bigstack pushing with any 2?

[AA suited]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB (t580)[/b]
<font color="#C00000">HERO (t1220)</font>
UTG (t1055)
<font color="#C00000">Button (t5145)</font>

Preflop: HERO is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Button goes all-in, Hero ???

Big stack has been pushing EVERY hand when folded to him since we entered the bubble.

I put him on any 2.

Surprisingly, it's -EV to call even if i put him on 72o.

[raptor517]

assuming big stack shoved, i would autocall here. sb has like 10 hands before he is blinded out. this is an autocall. holla

[citanul]

i call like a shot here. you're not exactly in a spot where it's 100% that you're in the money if you just wait. especially not if you start playing like a puss and the big stack is smart enough to keep shorty around.

the moral of the story is both:

1) you're not a lock for the money if you fold

and

2) play for first

citanul

[AA suited]

for me, play for 1st only applies AFTER itm.

Too bad Eastbay's site is down. I wanted to ask him if this would one of the times where you shouldnt wait for a better spot?

[citanul]

boo, i don't like this "only when itm" thing.

hourly rate = good. also, i think just in terms of roi, it's a bad way to think about things...

citanul

[johnnybeef]

I just wanted to add to what citanul is saying here. There were a couple of threads last week in which the topic of playing for first was discussed. To summarize, in order to maximize your earn, you want to play for the highest realistic place. Most of the time, that is going to be first place. There are, however, situations in which first place is not a very likely scenario, and as such, your game should be adjusted.

The situation that you have presented to us is definately not one of those times in which first place is unattainable, and as such, this becomes a very easy call.

[lastchance]

Fold Equity = 0.2262
Call Equity if won = 0.3169

.2262/.3169 = 71% chance of winning

Well, I respect raptor and Citanul a lot, and first is where most of the money is being paid out...

But folding has a high equity, and calling can only increase that so much..

I think this is going to be a very interesting discussion.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
assuming big stack shoved, i would autocall here. sb has like 10 hands before he is blinded out. this is an autocall. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

raptor, assuming short stack is shorter, and big stack is bigger (i.e, you and the other mid-stack are the same as in the original hand), how short should shorty be in order for this not to an autocall for you?

[Shillx]

I turbo muck this and only find a call with TT+. I might think for a while with 99, but would still probably find a fold there. AK just isn't a big enough favorite IMO to gamble here.

Brad

[Newt_Buggs]

At first I thought that this was an autofold with the blinds so small and I was surprised that so many people are saying that this is an easy call. ICM definitly says that its a fold, but now I'm realizing that any opponent smart enough to push any two here is also smart enough to keep the short stack alive. In the long run it might be better going for it now to avoid further abuse from the BS, but I still think that its close.

[Quercus]

Obviously, I'm not smart enough to keep short stacks alive when I'm a the big stack on the bubble.

Can someone explain the logic for me?

[lastchance]

If it's +EV for opponent to fold AK here, guess how many blinds you get to consistently steal?

And I dunno about this one... I think it's a fold, but I don't know.

[KingDan]

You can continually take blinds from the 2nd and 3rd stacks as they wait out the short stack.

[Shillx]

Keeping the small stack alive is great in theory but it almost always breaks down in reality. People don't play anywhere near correctly and it can really kill your EV when your pushes with junk get spite called.

Maybe 1% of the players on Party fold AK in that spot. Lots of people would call in that spot with something like A9 or 22 so your FE isn't anywhere near as high as it would be if you were playing against a group of pros.

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
Keeping the small stack alive is great in theory but it almost always breaks down in reality. People don't play anywhere near correctly and it can really kill your EV when your pushes with junk get spite called.

Maybe 1% of the players on Party fold AK in that spot. Lots of people would call in that spot with something like A9 or 22 so your FE isn't anywhere near as high as it would be if you were playing against a group of pros.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this post, and only keep the small stack alive in special situations, such as when he pushes my BB, and while I am getting slightly more than enough odds to call, but will fold instead.

And I will never fold aces in a situation like that (preserving small stack. Never.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
assuming big stack shoved, i would autocall here. sb has like 10 hands before he is blinded out. this is an autocall. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

raptor, assuming short stack is shorter, and big stack is bigger (i.e, you and the other mid-stack are the same as in the original hand), how short should shorty be in order for this not to an autocall for you?

[/ QUOTE ]

im not raptor, but ill give my answer. &lt;3bb. the reason for this is two fold. with less than three bb, he will be blinded out in less than a round. furthermore, 3bb is enough of a raise to eliminate a necesarry call with any two

[Mr_J]

It really depends on the table and how their styles are changed by the existence of a very low stack. If I can runover at least 1 other stack because of shortstack, I'll try and keep him alive even if I'm not bigstack. If that player will be tight anyway, no point in keeping shortstack alive.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
ill give my answer. &lt;3bb.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you fold AK when he has 450 and call when he has 580 against the same range? Really, I don't quite see the logic here. I'd understand if you'd tell me you fold when he's 1-1.5BB. But as it is, what exactly do you achieve by calling when SB is 580 as opposed to 450? Very arbitrary, IMO. (edit: SB is actually 505 after posting, so those 2 scenarios are even closer).

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I turbo muck this and only find a call with TT+. I might think for a while with 99, but would still probably find a fold there. AK just isn't a big enough favorite IMO to gamble here.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that by experience/intuition or analysis?

eastbay

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I turbo muck this and only find a call with TT+. I might think for a while with 99, but would still probably find a fold there. AK just isn't a big enough favorite IMO to gamble here.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that by experience/intuition or analysis?

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Analysis (ICM). Why do you ask?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I turbo muck this and only find a call with TT+. I might think for a while with 99, but would still probably find a fold there. AK just isn't a big enough favorite IMO to gamble here.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that by experience/intuition or analysis?

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Analysis (ICM). Why do you ask?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's perfectly coincident with the SGA calculation. I guess that's because you own it (or did it by hand).

eastbay

[raptor517]

look heres the thing. i kno im drunk and rollin rite now, but i cant pull myself away from 2+2. anyways, he has 580 chips when it costs him 225 to see a round of blinds. thing is, you have about 8.2x. icm MAY say its a fold if hes pushing any 2, but im still jumping in here all day. if i bust, i bust, but WHEN i win, i have 2500 chips and am in a viable position for first. this is a 33 or less, so only 8k chips in play factors in as well. this is a necessary call imo, and folding is a sin. in the 109s+, ive started to make a lot more calls than i used too, and this is one of these situations. people call way too much for you to take too much advantage of yer fe. by folding AKo here, you are giving up just a bit too much to make it correct. holla

[curtains]

For what its worth I think this is a pretty clear fold.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
any opponent smart enough to push any two here is also smart enough to keep the short stack alive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't buy that at all, and I don't think it matters much even if he intends to take that line.

If big stack is pushing every hand, there's going to be a spite call soon.

eastbay

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
At first I thought that this was an autofold with the blinds so small and I was surprised that so many people are saying that this is an easy call. ICM definitly says that its a fold, but now I'm realizing that any opponent smart enough to push any two here is also smart enough to keep the short stack alive. In the long run it might be better going for it now to avoid further abuse from the BS, but I still think that its close.

[/ QUOTE ]


No offense but this is partly nonsense because of the whole "any player who is smart enough to push any 2 is smart enough to keep the shortstack alive". Keeping the shortstack alive is a ridiculously overrated concept and youd probably lose nothing if you never intentionally did it in your entire life. I think folding is clearcut here, and am surprised so many people think you should call.

[eastbay]

I don't see any compelling reason to go against the first order numbers and call here.

If big stack is pushing every two, I know that most players are going to spite call relatively quickly, and with a lot less than AK. This increases my fold equity and makes the decision even heavier towards folding.

There's still room to play here. There's no reason to panic and make a stand at 65/35 when you've got two stacks covered on the bubble.

Maybe someone can make a good argument for calling, but I haven't seen one yet.

Now, what I actually DO in this spot is another question... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

eastbay

[microbet]

It's a tough fold, but I think it is right, and I think I can do it.

This bubble is very likely to pop in the next few hands.

Not that it will make a huge difference in the analysis, but "any two" is a lot different than 72o.

[johnnybeef]

Yeah, I didn't realize how -EV this call was. Ignore all of my previous posts in this thread.

[citanul]

wow, this is a pretty -ev call. i probably still make it since well, meh, that's what i do /images/graemlins/smile.gif i sit around all day and i say "well, ev fold = 67 bucks and ev call = 62 bucks and well, there aint much difference in those two, i only paid 33 to get in!

meh. nah, i fold this when it's a little more obvious i should fold it, but i don't think that on the spot, i'd fold. this is not to say that folding is wrong, since it is clearly right, by the numbers.

there was a number, it was like -1.7% or something, that i remember getting tossed around as like, real crappy in terms of $ev, anyone remember what it was?

and eastbay, is there something i can do to my s&amp;g power tools to make the 75/150 level accessable?

citanul

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, this is a pretty -ev call. i probably still make it since well, meh, that's what i do /images/graemlins/smile.gif i sit around all day and i say "well, ev fold = 67 bucks and ev call = 62 bucks and well, there aint much difference in those two, i only paid 33 to get in!

meh. nah, i fold this when it's a little more obvious i should fold it, but i don't think that on the spot, i'd fold. this is not to say that folding is wrong, since it is clearly right, by the numbers.

there was a number, it was like -1.7% or something, that i remember getting tossed around as like, real crappy in terms of $ev, anyone remember what it was?

and eastbay, is there something i can do to my s&amp;g power tools to make the 75/150 level accessable?

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

my sentiments exactly


edit: for future reference, one thing that i have been doing with the tool in regards to the new level is to compute the ev for the call/push at the 50/100, and 100/200 levels, and adjust accordingly. all in all, there will be very few times that the difference in blinds will make a difference in the proper play, but, if it does, you can usre this as a rough estimate.

[Tru]

Here's why I think it's a clear call:

Assuming the short stack is not a complete idiot (assuming a lot, I know), eventually he will call if the Big stack is truly pushing any two. When he calls and possibly doubles up, it's anyone's ballgame. I don't want to wait until I'm put in that position. If I have a hand as strong as AK, doubling up here gives me a great shot at winning. In addition, the Big stack will be forced to slow down a little. Make the call.

If you're in the camp that folds AK, Do you fold JJ? How about QQ?

Tru

[AA suited]

citanul,

download the new version /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're in the camp that folds AK, Do you fold JJ? How about QQ?


[/ QUOTE ]

JJ is a fold, and QQ is marginally positive.

[microbet]

Certainly I call with QQ. Almost certainly with JJ. I haven't run the numbers, but I hesitate to put anyone on absolutely any two, so I probably fold TT. Or at least think I should - same as with AK.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's why I think it's a clear call:

Assuming the short stack is not a complete idiot (assuming a lot, I know), eventually he will call if the Big stack is truly pushing any two. When he calls and possibly doubles up, it's anyone's ballgame. I don't want to wait until I'm put in that position. If I have a hand as strong as AK, doubling up here gives me a great shot at winning. In addition, the Big stack will be forced to slow down a little. Make the call.

If you're in the camp that folds AK, Do you fold JJ? How about QQ?

Tru

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ (and TT+99) is much much much stronger than AK in these scenarios where you could be up against any 2.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Certainly I call with QQ. Almost certainly with JJ. I haven't run the numbers, but I hesitate to put anyone on absolutely any two, so I probably fold TT. Or at least think I should - same as with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]


Ok I'm going to post a very interesting hand from last night where I had TT and made a call like this on the bubble. I have to find it first, but I did it because I thought there were quite good chances my opponent was pushing any 2.

[curtains]

Ok I felt this was very controversial hand. UTG was Gigabet (I guess if he reads this he now knows one of my anon handles). Anyway I felt the chances were relatively high that Gigabet is pushing any 2 cards, which makes this a hugely +EV call.

Anyway it didnt show on the converter, but his hand was 87d. Of course if he isnt pushing any 2, calling gets worse. It gets progressively worse the tighter his range, and if his range is relatively tight, its a hugely -EV call. Anyway I just got the sense from some things he's posted and said, that he may push any 2 here, and so I called after using almost all my timebank.



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t4020)
Button (t1105)
SB (t1740)
Hero (t3135)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t4020 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t2835 (All-In).

Flop: (t7305) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t7305) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t7305) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t7305



btw this is a very dangerous call and Im not sure if it was correct. I have to win about 70% of the time to even be slightly +EV. TT wins about 75% against any 2 cards and then is very large +EV. I only know that its correct if you know your opponent is pushing any 2 cards here, but I didn't know for sure. Also my standard play against an unknown opponent is to fold here.

[lastchance]

Oh, Villain is Gigabet. Against Gigabet, I make this call in a heartbeat. Against anyone else, I feel laying down here is definitely correct.

[curtains]

I hear ya, but he really has to be pushing any 2 to make this correct. I wasn't absolutely sure he would. And I highly doubt hes going to push like 80% and fold the other 20% (It would still be correct in this case).

But I think he either pushes any 2 here and its +ev to call, or he doesn't and his range will make it -EV to call. I felt it was the former but really am not sure. For what it's worth I definitely DON'T push any 2 from UTG there. I raise to 750-800 against a lot of opponents because I know that its very rare that you find a BB who is willing to try to make a move on you in this situation. I definitely fold sometimes though

[microbet]

I think it's reasonable to put Gigabet or a lot of other known players - especially 2+2'ers - on ANY two and not just most twos.

I just assume an unknown player has a pretty high chance of choking on the worst hands, even if they think it is a good spot.

I don't mean to put unknown players down. I choke on 'any two' pushes all the time.

[Nottom]

The blinds are to small to take a stand I think. Someone else will bite soon, and I'd rather be getting my money in pushing than calling.

Basically its the bigstack's right to be a bully here.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's reasonable to put Gigabet or a lot of other known players - especially 2+2'ers - on ANY two and not just most twos.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll go ahead and admit that you can go ahead and put me on "most 2" most of the time in a spot like this. Basically I just use those bottom 20% or so to show that I will fold.

I don't know if it does anything or not, but I think it might fend off spite calls a bit which is always nice.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're in the camp that folds AK, Do you fold JJ? How about QQ?


[/ QUOTE ]

JJ is a fold, and QQ is marginally positive.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. 99+ are all calls.

eastbay

[lastchance]

If Villain pushes any 2 here... That villain is not Gigabet.

[microbet]

I don't think I go down to TT here without knowing villian. But, a factor for many villians that could make TT good is that their range may not be any two, but it also may not include QQ+ or JJ+ as they would often limp or minraise.

[Newt_Buggs]

on the OP:
At most tables I agree that this is an easy fold, but at a tight table where everyone is good its unlikely that the bubble will end in a couple of hands. Calling here is definitly -EV in this situation, but more so than folding and letting him continue to steal 225-300 in each of the upcoming rounds? Your stack size in relation to the rest of the players is going to allow the BS to make +EV pushes at your expense, and calling is a way to block these future losses of equity to him.


also, in curtain's hand I can easily see Gigabet pushing any two

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
on the OP:
At most tables I agree that this is an easy fold, but at a tight table where everyone is good


[/ QUOTE ]

This is a $33.

[ QUOTE ]

its unlikely that the bubble will end in a couple of hands. Calling here is definitly -EV in this situation, but more so than folding and letting him continue to steal 225-300 in each of the upcoming rounds?

[/ QUOTE ]

People overestimate the control big stack has over the gameplay here. He doesn't get to act first every hand, and he's not going to call off 1k chips with junk, doubling someone up to make them dangerous again.

eastbay