Value bet this river

[mscags]

My notes on villian said he plays bad hands on third street and will complete with weaker hands. Should I value bet this river?

7 Card Stud High-Low ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 2: xx xx T/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/club.gif___brings-in___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___completes___calls
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___raises

4th Street - (7.10 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif___bets___calls
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___raises

5th Street - (5.55 BB)

Seat 7: xx xx K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks___calls
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif___bets

6th Street - (7.55 BB)

Seat 7: xx xx K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___checks___calls
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif___bets

River - (9.55 BB)

Seat 7: xx xx K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif xx___checks
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___checks

Total pot: (9.55 BB)

[bigredlemon]

the high hand starting requirements are much higher in stud8 than stud high. If whether betting a big pair is iffy in study high, it's going to be even more so in stud 8, especially if you aren't showing a possible low. I think you save more money in the long run by checking here.

[Bogglor]

I find it very, very difficult to value bet a single pair on the end in 8/b. The reason being is that so many low hands start out as mere low hands and end up making 2 pair along the way and THEY WILL CALL YOU DOWN EVERY TIME (on Party). I don't see any value in betting a single big pair unimproved on the end after someone's been calling down the entire way. You could check and call a bet, and you'll often have to to stop people from betting at you constantly on the river regardless if you check. The real value comes in when you make something like 2 big pair against a low hand who also makes 2 pair. They will pay you off every time in my experience.

[grb137]

Value bets, value raises, and value calls, in my opinion, depend a great deal on your knowledge of the player. I don't make these plays unless I've seen the opponent do the thing I hope to get him to do.

In this case, I wouldnt make this value bet unless I've previously seen him call with 1 pr on the end against possible aces (or he's drunk and has been calling absolutely everything).

[Spladle Master]

Easy value bet. You could've started with three low cards and be trying to push him off his hand. He's not about to let that happen. He's unlikely to raise you with less than trips here, so I definitely like a bet.

I'm curious to know what some of the better players on the stud forum have to say about this hand. I think this situation is interesting and common.

[bigredlemon]

Betting two big pairs on the river has been -EV for me in the last 1000 hands. I hate to see what would happen to my bankroll if I started betting one pair.

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting two big pairs on the river has been -EV for me in the last 1000 hands. I hate to see what would happen to my bankroll if I started betting one pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Play another million hands and then tell me how you feel.

When I'm playing good I'm pretty sure that every river bet I make is +EV.

[bigredlemon]

I only track my data a few days at a time... they don't make any trackers for stud 8 /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
I only track my data a few days at a time... they don't make any trackers for stud 8 /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I was only pointing out how small a sample size 1000 hands is. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Also I'm curious to know what assumptions you make that lead you to believe a bet here is -EV.

[bigredlemon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I only track my data a few days at a time... they don't make any trackers for stud 8 /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I was only pointing out how small a sample size 1000 hands is. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Also I'm curious to know what assumptions you make that lead you to believe a bet here is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]Because if you've done your job right, you're going to be heads up against a low draw. By the time you reach 6th, he'll have 4low with a gut shot straight or some flush draw and or a low pair. If he pairs again for two baby pairs and you bet the river, he will figure you for two big pairs and fold. If he hits his straight/flush/trips, he will raise. He'll only call with two small pair if you are a habitual bluffer or the type of player who would bet with just a bare big pair on the river. Even then, you win 1BB if you are right, lose 2BB if you are wrong, and just feed the rake every other time. I can see it +EV at the very low levels, but I find that very few people will pay me off at 2/4 or above. I can see betting two big pairs if you occasionally bet bare pairs on the river so that they'd have to call to see whether you made your second pair, but then betting a big bare pair is advertising rather than betting for value. Without a specific read, i've become loath to bet two pair on the river. It's probably my biggest leak right now. I've run into 8 boats/straights/flushes in the last 10 showdowns, so I might be biased though. My win rate is 4% for the last two weeks so I'm probably thinking more weak tight than usual, but I think i'll probably stand by this position even when it blows over.

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I only track my data a few days at a time... they don't make any trackers for stud 8 /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I was only pointing out how small a sample size 1000 hands is. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Also I'm curious to know what assumptions you make that lead you to believe a bet here is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]Because if you've done your job right, you're going to be heads up against a low draw. By the time you reach 6th, he'll have 4low with a gut shot straight or some flush draw and or a low pair. If he pairs again for two baby pairs and you bet the river, he will figure you for two big pairs and fold. If he hits his straight/flush/trips, he will raise. He'll only call with two small pair if you are a habitual bluffer or the type of player who would bet with just a bare big pair on the river. Even then, you win 1BB if you are right, lose 2BB if you are wrong, and just feed the rake every other time. I can see it +EV at the very low levels, but I find that very few people will pay me off at 2/4 or above. I can see betting two big pairs if you occasionally bet bare pairs on the river so that they'd have to call to see whether you made your second pair, but then betting a big bare pair is advertising rather than betting for value. Without a specific read, i've become loath to bet two pair on the river. It's probably my biggest leak right now. I've run into 8 boats/straights/flushes in the last 10 showdowns, so I might be biased though. My win rate is 4% for the last two weeks so I'm probably thinking more weak tight than usual, but I think i'll probably stand by this position even when it blows over.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant on this specific hand. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Obviously I'm not advocating betting a big pair on the end every time. In fact I would guess that checking with a big pair on the end in stud hi/lo is probably correct ~80-90% of the time. I just think it's +EV for this particular hand.

4% is ridiculously low, though. Damn, you are running bad! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Andy B]

I think that this is close enough that you shouldn't sweat it too much, but I think it's a bet. There is a longish chapter in 7CS4AP about an obvious pair of Aces against an obvious pair of Kings on the river. I know that this is stud/8, but with the third-street action and your inferior card-catching ability, this has basically reverted to a high-only hand.

Of note is that you can account for several of the other guy's side-cards, making it harder for him to have two pair. And against most opponents, you can safely fold to a check-raise.

I didn't respond to this when I read it last night because I wasn't entirely sure. I check in this spot a fair amount myself.

[bigredlemon]

[ QUOTE ]

I meant on this specific hand. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Obviously I'm not advocating betting a big pair on the end every time. In fact I would guess that checking with a big pair on the end in stud hi/lo is probably correct ~80-90% of the time. I just think it's +EV for this particular hand.

4% is ridiculously low, though. Damn, you are running bad! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Would you bet a two big pairs on the end?


Maybe I"m still running badly but I still havent been paid off once all of today either, but have been checkraised due to a miracle river 4 times. Poker is very situational, and I definetly think that it is very foolish to bet a big two pair on the river without a read to suggest that they are loose enough to make the river call.

[Bogglor]

One way of fixing the "leak" could be simply to avoid trouble high hands like split jacks, queens, and kings in a multiway pot. The problem is that when you're against more than 1 low draw, they're almost always freerolling you in some capacity (if they're any good at all) thus making it really hard for you to play your hand. I don't even think you give up much value by not playing these hands, to be honest. And yeah, I too have lost plenty by value betting bare pairs on the river but I really don't try to do that anymore unless I have a read on my opponent.

About value betting 2 big pair on the end: I think if you're not doing this here, you shouldn't be bothering with 1 way high hands in the first place. What kind of hand are you expecting to make when you start with a big pair? Generally I hope it improves to 2 pair but trips is always welcomed. I think you've just run into a bad stretch of beats (I'm on one now myself) where people are making great hands on the last card. I've found that most of the time you will get paid off (I play mainly 10/20 so YMMV at other limits) on the end by 2 small pair who just can't resist seeing if their low turned high hand is now good.

[Spladle Master]

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[ QUOTE ]

I meant on this specific hand. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Obviously I'm not advocating betting a big pair on the end every time. In fact I would guess that checking with a big pair on the end in stud hi/lo is probably correct ~80-90% of the time. I just think it's +EV for this particular hand.

4% is ridiculously low, though. Damn, you are running bad! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Would you bet a two big pairs on the end?


Maybe I"m still running badly but I still havent been paid off once all of today either, but have been checkraised due to a miracle river 4 times. Poker is very situational, and I definetly think that it is very foolish to bet a big two pair on the river without a read to suggest that they are loose enough to make the river call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You say "Poker is very situational" and then you make a sweeping generalization. This is funny. Do you see why?

[frappeboy]

Andy,

I think Sklansky says this partly because you are usually acting first with the bigger pair. Many times if you check, 2 pair will bet and you'll be forced to call, while 1 unimproved pair will just check behind you. So by betting in this spot, it costs you the same when he has 2 pair but extract extra money when he calls with 1 pair.

In this situation he is acting last, which means it's probably not worth it to bet.