Annika Sorenstam gets her invite to a PGA event

[Clarkmeister]

At the Colonial in May. The course is short by PGA standards at 7000yds.

Odds she makes the cut?

[B-Man]

She is an outstanding golfer, but I think she'll finish very close to the bottom. She's going to be out of her league. Still it will be very interesting to watch.

Do you think Martha Burke is going to organize a protest against the LPGA for excluding men?

How about the girl scouts and Wellesley College while she is at it?

Oh wait, I forgot, to her equal rights is a one-way street.

[Clarkmeister]

I graduated from the University of Illinois with a Finance degree. I'm waiting for them to cut the number of men allowed to get said degree from 100/year to 6/year because the enrollment isn't proportional and there are only 6 women enrolled.

Wait...you mean that doesn't make sense? But Title IX says it does......

[HDPM]

At least 5-1. Probably higher. One thing in her favor is that they won't go super-low at Colonial, so a struggling score around par will make the cut probably. A lot depends on set-up. If the greens are fast and the rough around them is high, she will have a lot of trouble in the short game. Her short game is probably what will cause her the most problems compared to the men. Her ballstriking probably won't be too bad. I am interested in seeing her try. I may be underestimating her, but don't think so.

[andyfox]

You may have something here. Didn't Watson win the Colonial when he was close to 50? And I think he played there last year and finished in the top 10. I realize that even the old geezer men hit the ball farther than Annika, but if a Watson can be competitive there at age 52 (?), then maybe she can too This may be a good venue for Sorenstam, one would think she picked a good course for her.

[HDPM]

Yes, she said publically that she would only do it on some courses. She his the ball farther than the average male tour pro in the '50's and 60's, so she should be able to get around older courses. (Hogan playing with modern equipment before the car accident would have averaged over 300 off the tee easily. He went at it hard. Some other guys then would have too, but the average player was shorter.) The short game thing is what is often forgotten. To play the PGA Tour now takes a hell of a short game. You can't make it there without scoring and you can't score with a bad short game. The men are real good around the greens.

[M2d]

Let's see. her average driving distance is 265, meaning that she probably maxes out at 280 or 290. She'll have no shot at any par 5 in two, and have long irons in on three of the par 4's (457 yds+) as well as mid irons in on the rest of the par 4's. Additionally, she'll have some longish par 3's to contend with (shortest is around 180). this is, of course, assuming that she can drive it down the stripe on each hole.
Short game aside, I think the two or three clubs taht she'll be giving up to the men on each hole will be her major hurdle to overcome.

[Boris]

The true odds of her making the cut are at least 100-1.

It's great that she wants to give it a shot. I'm not sure what it would prove either way if she makes the cut.

[bernie]

she is by far, my favorite golfer....and yes, she's a woman...she kicks ass....ive watched her since she first came on the scene. total player.

not sure the odds, but itd be nice if she made the cut and some money...

b

[bernie]

you dont lead the LPGA in both the US and Europe by having just an ok shortgame....her whole game is good. the factor is driving distance...which was also mentioned in the article.

id venture to say her shortgame is as good as any mens player

b

[Bill Murphy]

Here's a link to all the past champs at Colonial:

http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/story?page=colonial/champs

Not exactly chopped liver. She's going to get annihilated; do much worse than anyone'll dare predict. The relative lack of length means that more overall skills are needed to win, IMO. I mean, JAYSUS: Jack, Arnie, Watson, Trevino, Hogan, Casper, Snead, Phold, Surge-less, Lehman, Price, COME ON! Sure, there's a few nobodies on there. Ever take a peak at the US Open past champs list? Who dat win the Players last year?

Call me crazy, but I almost think she'd finish a few spots higher at a Bethpage, OK not BP, well mebbe Pinehurst or Shinnecock, where keeping it in the fairway is paramount, and her ego wouldn't get involved trying to overpower the course.

On top of which, I think her personality is all wrong for this. She's much more of a Margaret Court or Steffi Graf type[shy/serious] than a Billie Jean King or Navratilova, which is what's needed. She played atrociously at Bighorn[they all did] when she got more & more frustrated, with cameras & crowd right on top of her, and she can get a tad yippy from time to time. Juli Inkster would do the best in this sort of thing, IMO, but still 50-1 to make the cut.

I think they might set the course up a bit easier than usual, out of fear of criticism if she plops an 80-82, which'll just ensure somebody shoots a 57.

She's not playing a 55 year old hustler[who, BTW, bet against himself & dumped] in an exhibition, with considerable advantages in the setup. Serena & Venus would get double-bageled by Agassi, Hewitt, Roddick, and on down, under straight-up conditions, though they'd do better than any other women[and any male amateur] ever would.

Annika, Juli, Karrie, and SeRi are truly great golfers, better than any non-pro man, but the PGA Regular Tour is a geometric leap. Now, the par 3 day at Augusta, or a NFL/Celebrity event against Elway & Al Del Greco would be very interesting.

[Clarkmeister]

"id venture to say her shortgame is as good as any mens player"

You know, I thought that it was at least close not too long ago. Then in a similar thread OleMissGolf said that the gap between mens and womens' short game was almost as big as their length difference off the tee. I didn't belive him, and did a little research.

It turns out that most experts agree with him 100%.

I've seen many opinions on TV and Radio from commentators, as well as a few articles on the internet that basically say that the differences in chipping, and yes, even putting are dramatic between the two tours. I guess we'll find out in May, but don't be so sure she can hang in *any* phase of the game.

BTW, I hope she does well. I'm also pulling particularly hard for that 13 year old Michelle Wei girl. I think its great that these women are at least attempting to try and to it straight up on a level playing field. Takes gobs of courage and no one can deny that.

[andyfox]

The difference in the long game is understandable, but how would we account for the difference in the short game? In watching on TV, I think the women do have inferior short games, but why? I understand why the seniors (um, I mean Champions [talk about a euphemism--when did Bobby Wadkins become a champion]) have worse short games; all I have to do is watch Tom Kite try to make a three footer bringing the putter back an inch-and-a-quarter. But why the women?

[andyfox]

Her scoring average last year was more than a full stroke better than the next best player. Pretty impressive.

But I think it's a lose-lose situation for both her and the women in general. If she does poorly, people will say see, there's no comparison between the men and the women. And if she does well, they'll say she's an exception, no other woman could compete.

Unless, of course, she wins the tournament. . . /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[Clarkmeister]

"would we account for the difference in the short game? "

The most logical reason I can think of simply is the level of competition. As a corrolary, I doubt that Tiger would be as good as he is right now if he only played against the LPGA every week. When she isn't being pushed by anyone better, how much better can she really get?

If Michael Jordan only played in the CBA until he was 30, would he have then been able to play as well in the NBA at 31 as he did with years of NBA experience?

(boy, thats an ugly sentence, better translate) Jordan with 8 years CBA experience gets schooled by Jordan with 8 years NBA experience.

[IrishHand]

Golf competition isn't nearly the same as NBA competition. In the NBA (and other team sports), you're physically competing against your opponents. In golf, you're competing against yourself and your score is compared to others. Not the same at all.

I agree that there might be a small difference in the competition effect between PGA and LPGA. However, golf is so mental that I suspect that if Annika had been playing PGA all along, she'd have given up long before now after the endless poor finishes.

[Clarkmeister]

I'd contend that the difference is smaller than you think.

I used to play darts against my friends. I destroyed them. I basically stayed at that same level until I moved and got in a dart league, then I was forced to improve my game tremendously. I think golf is very likely to be similar in that respect.

Poker is like that as well.

[Bill Murphy]

Butch Harmon says there's a huge difference, and that its due to many PGA players spending all day practicing/playing at a course as a child, while almost all girls would never be allowed to do that w/o a parent present.

Tiger & Phold were both "dropped off in the morning/picked up at night", often w/quite a bit more money in their pockets!

You certainly don't see near the amount of miracle chips & recovery shots on the LPGA as the PGA. Even the best of them is lightyears behind Tiger or Ollie's short games. As I said below, Annika gets slaughtered at Colonial.

[rusty JEDI]

LPGA, the pins are cut to the center of the green.

PGA, the pins are in a corner protected by a bunker. If she cant attack the pin, she will be putting from 50 feet.

[Gitz]

Ratings will be up it will be the Queen Bowl of Golf. Actually it already is because everybody is talking about it and she's giving interviews on camera and is going to hook-up with Tiger for advice. The woman will be watching it to see what outfits she wears and hope she kicks &*+, woman haters will be watching it to say she !@#$, men will be watching it just to talk about it on Monday at work. HYPE HYPE AND MORE HYPE!!!!!

Try not to watch it or talk about it then you will be the winner!!!!!! /forums/images/icons/smile.gif /forums/images/icons/smile.gif /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[AceHigh]

The women's courses are generally much easier than the men's. Not just in distance, but how they are set up, length of rough, pin placement, etc. So that's as big a factor as her competitors.

I don't think she'll make the cut. I'd like to see her do well, but it's going to be very tough.

[M2d]

it's a way to hype up a non-Tiger week. I don't think he usually plays the colonial

[olemissgolf]

I found this thread, and expected to be seeing people talk about her chances of winning, then winning the Open, and then going on to lead the PGA money list. I was ready to blast them!
Instead, I find comments like "her true odds of making the cut are 100-1" and "about 50-1". Well tell me where to send my money, because I sure want some of that action.
I don't think that either Williams sister can beat the best male amateur tennis player. I'm sure that Annika isn't as good as the best male amateur golfers. And I'm positive that her short-game isn't as good as "any of the men's".
Things to her advantage:
She picked a good tourney.
She will be inspired and motivated.
She plays difficult courses very well.
I think they might soften the conditions to a degree.

Things to her disadvantage:
Hitting longer clubs into the holes.
Faster greens. Shorter fairways. Longer rough.
Tougher pins.
Frenzied media hype leading up to and at Colonial.

Although at least 70 out of 120 players in the field will, (compared to most PGA events with a field of 144 or 156), I think she will fall short. But I don't think by much. She is a great player, and she is on top of her game. I wish her well, and am looking forward to watching.

[brad]

john macenroe said serena or venus couldnt beat anyone on the mens tour (not even #200) and no one disagreed with him.

[Clarkmeister]

Didn't Venus play like the #147 guy a year or so ago and get smoked? I remember hearing that somewhere........

[HDPM]

Bernie: Annika's shortgame is nowhere near that of the men. Nowhere close. She can get going some with the putter, no question. You don't shoot 59 in any tournament on any course if you can't putt. But the greens on the LPGA are a lot easier overall. The pins are also easier as someone else mentioned so getting in position to get hot with the putter is easier. As for the rest of the shots around the greens, she will be at a major disadvantage. She hits the ball about as far as Corey Pavin, a little longer in fact. So how do you think Pavin would do on the LPGA even in his current form which is worse than he used to be? I think he'd routinely win 12 tournaments and multiple majors out there. He probably wouldn't win every week, but he'd win a lot. Tiger would win every single week. Phold would win every single week if he hit 3-iron off the tee at least.

Andy- I have often wondered about this. Particularly when you see small guys like Paul Runyan with magic shortgames. Why aren't women as good around the greens? The practice thing someone else mentioned makes some sense, but there have been women who hit just as many putts and chips when they were young as the guys. I believe the answer is that strength plays a greater role in the shortgame than people think. The control required and super-fine motor skills are aided by strength. It is easy to see why in bunker shots or shots out of high rough. I think of the best dentists I have had and the best putters I have seen. I used to go to an old dentist who had huge hands and wrists. You thought he would hurt you but his touch with sharp instruments was so much lighter than any female dental assistant who has worked on me it's almost funny. My current dentist used to do powerlifting stuff and got very strong for his size. He is very good. When weaker people work on me I seem to get stabbed, poked, and improperly scraped far more. The best chipper and putter I have seen never played the tour, although he took money off more than one tour pro and won some smaller tournaments. He had unbelievably strong hands and forearms. He had a heart attack and lost feel in his left arm so he often hit wedge shots with his right hand only. He could hit them stiff from 75 or so yards one handed. His putting bordered on the miraculous. Is this relationship between strength and touch accidental and only anecdotal? I don't think so. Women can hit the golf ball very well with their technique and timing, which is something most men should try to copy. I just don't know if pure technique and timing is as great an equalizer in the short game as in the full shots. Counter-intuitive, yes. Inaccurate? I don't know, but that's my current working hypothesis for the difference.

[M2d]

according to CNNSI, the Palms has her at 3.5-1 to make the cut, and 1-5 to miss it.

[Clarkmeister]

I just saw offshore odds at -430 she misses the cut.

For the uninitiated, thats bet $430 to make $100 profit.

Seems pretty good to me. Any thoughts on the actual line?

[M2d]

In real life, I'd think you'd have to lay a lot more, but this is gambling, not real life.
All the idiot non-golfers/weekend hacks (not the enlightened non-golfers/weekend hacks /forums/images/icons/smile.gif ) are probably going to take the odds at 3.5-1 or whatever vegas is offering when the blow into town.

[olemissgolf]

A couple of weeks ago, Laura Baugh played in a North Fla. PGA event, a "very" mini-tour. She did very well, much better than I would have thought. I think she finished around 10th, shooting something like 72-71. I recognized a couple of guys ahead of her who I think are good players.

Granted, these guys aren't PGA Tour players, but Laura is not Annika.
I look forward to watching the Colonial.

[Clarkmeister]

According to ESPN reports, Annika golfed with Tiger Woods and John Smoltz (yes, John Smoltz the baseball pitcher) from the tips on TIgers home course. According to Tiger, Smoltz (a 1 or 2 handicapper) beat Annika by "at least a couple of strokes".

Doesn't bode well.

Current line on her making the cut:
Yes: +340
No: -370

[HDPM]

She also played colonial with David Frost. She didn't keep score, but she didn't do too well some onlookers said. And they'll be more rough and tougher pins at the tourn. -370 against making the cut is a very enticing number. Smoltz played well, but he's a 1. At colonial there will be a full field of guys who would be +4's or so on their home course. But a 1 handicapper can beat a tour player on a given day. Not a full field of them in a tournament though.

[Clarkmeister]

I just want to know how the hell you play without keeping score. LOL.

I've felt all along -350 or so was like stealing. I still think so obviously.

[TobDog]

The past Colonial winners were more often than not, stronger players from the standpoint of basically shorter hitters with the ability to adapt to the golf courses, which, we will see if she can adapt. She will probably have the largest challenge in her life so far as far as competetion, it will be set up longer than the LPGA plays and the pin positions are tougher as well. The general opinion of those that I talk with is that it really can do nothing good for the LPGA, if she plays well, the better players from the LPGA will want to play on the PGA tour(taking away from the LPGA), if she plays poorly then "Well the women just aren't that good then are they?". I think it will be entertaining, but I think it would be funny if she or Suzie Whaley were to somehow become eligible for the Masters, that would make interesting press.

[olemissgolf]

Just an update on 13 year old Michele Wie. Last week tied for fourth in the men's Hawaii State Am.
She is planning to play in 6 LPGA events this year, and 1 (men's)Canadian Tour event.