Am I fishing or am I playing the odds [Archive]

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hemstock

07-08-2005, 06:31 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP3 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

Is this the correct way to play it? What distinguishes the difference between fishing and playing with the pot odds?

Walker

07-08-2005, 06:41 PM

Check/fold. And it's not even close.

hemstock

07-08-2005, 06:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Check/fold. And it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? I have 8 outs to make a straight (it might not be the nuts) and the the pot is giving me over 6 to 1 to my money. Isnt this the way it works?

TheMainEvent

07-08-2005, 06:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why not? I have 8 outs to make a straight (it might not be the nuts) and the the pot is giving me over 6 to 1 to my money. Isnt this the way it works?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are many scenarios where you'll hit your draw and still lose or split, particularly if you hit a 7. When this happens you'll also be forced to cough up more money. Draws with reverse implied odds suck.

MrStretchie

07-08-2005, 06:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP3 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

Is this the correct way to play it? What distinguishes the difference between fishing and playing with the pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically the issue here is that not all OESD (open ended straight draws) are created equal.

Looking at this hand, cards that improve your hand are:
3 queens, 3 3's, 4 2's, 4 7's.

Obviously you're not going to win by spiking a 3 very often, so those aren't worth anything. If you hit a 2, you'll lose to someone else who has a 3, or someone who flopped a straight with 78. Possible, but not very likely. So your 2's are worth almost full outs. However, if you hit a 7, anyone with an 8 beats you. Therefore your 7's are worth at _best_ half outs. Likewise, due to the coordinated nature of the board, if you hit a queen, you'll sometimes lose to a straight. You could also lose to a higher pair/better kicker. So your 3 queens are probably worth ~1 out.

SO in total you have the equivalent of about 6-6.5 outs. You should also discount that a bit due to the liklihood that you are drawing dead to a straight already.

So to call you need about 6:1+. With implied odds you're definitely getting that, so you should play on.

Now your odds of hitting by the river are about 1:3. So you need at least 3 callers to value bet. However, there's a strong chance you won't get 3 callers, let alone the 4 you'd need to do better than break even here. You also can't afford to call a raise. AND there's the possibility that you're already drawing dead.
That's why this wasn't a good value bet. You also can't bet to knock people out here, because the pot isn't big enough to pay you back when you hit.

Once you're raised, you definitely had the odds to call.

Now then.. on the turn you have an A. Your queens are almost certainly toast at this point. You may still be drawing dead against a higher straight. It'd doubtful that MP is betting an 8 though, unless he flopped the straight, so your straight outs are likely good now. That gives slightly less than 8 outs. You're getting 6.5:1, and should still call.
River fold was good.

So the only mistake (although it was a big one) was the bet on the flop.

-Stretch

MrStretchie

07-08-2005, 06:53 PM

Good point re reverse implied odds. However it should be pretty obvious on the turn if he catches a 7 and his hand isn't good. The +implied odds outweight the - in this case. It's a call on the flop, but definitely not a bet.

joda mas

07-08-2005, 06:54 PM

You have potentially 8 outs to a straight and 3 to a queen, which may or may not be good. Since your pot odds were 6.5 to 1, you probably had the odds to chase.

I guess fishing is chasing when you don't have the correct odds.

MrStretchie

07-08-2005, 06:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Check/fold. And it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagreed. He has 4 nearly clean outs to the 2's. Considering reverse implied odds the 7's aren't worth much, but he'll certainly make more than he loses when he hits a 7. Say 1 out. Queens will often win this too. Conservatively 1 out. That gives him 6 outs, which is definitely enough to continue, getting 7:1 on the flop (at least, after he checks and MP bets).

Walker

07-08-2005, 07:10 PM

I don't think this hand is woth any more than a clean 3-4 outer (aginst more opponents it's worth even less). Check/fold the flop.

MrStretchie

07-08-2005, 07:12 PM

Why do you say? It's doubtful anyone else is in with a 3. So unless holds exactly 78, your 2 outs are good. That's 4 right there. You don't think the queens or 7's are worth Anything?

Shillx

07-08-2005, 07:15 PM

It is pretty hard to say what you should do here since you should probably check the flop and see what happens. I'll outline 2 different scenarios for you (there are many more but this will start you off, hopefully others elaborate)...

1 - The most interesting scenario is what you should do if it checks around to the button who bets. If the SB folds, you should highly consider raising to try and get it HU. Why?

1) You might have the button beat since he could be auto-betting and getting people out will give you the best chance of winning.
2) You might fold someone out with a hand to a better draw like T8.
3) You might fold someone out with a hand to the same draw like A3.
4) You might be able to clear up your Q pairing outs should someone fold KQ or something.

2 - If you check and MP1 bets you are in a good spot to take a card off should it come back for one bet. So I would take a look at a turn card here no matter how many callers are in the middle. The more people who are still in the pot, the less aggressively I will play it should a seven slide. If it is HU you should be prepared to bet a Q, 7 or 2 on 4th street.

Brad

MrStretchie

07-08-2005, 07:25 PM

Yes. Although I'd say the raise to clean up outs is iffy.. definitely a play, but the pot is pretty small here - I don't know if this is going to improve your chances enough to make it worth the bet. I think I'd just call unless I knew he was one to autobet the button.. but it's defininitely a play.