3/6 Bottom Set KQ10

[ThomasPHoolery]

MP1's play seems a bit off to me. Question is how to play the river.


BB is TAG, better than average 2+2 type. MP1 just sat down and have no stats on him. Cutoff is below average, seeing flop for a raise w/ any ace and any two face cards.


Poker Room 3/6 10 handed.
Hero in MP3 w/ 10 10 (disregard suits, board is 4 different suits by the turn).

2 folds, MP1 limps, fold, Hero raises, fold, CO calls, 2 folds, BB 3 bets, MP1 calls, hero calls, CO calls

6BB going to the flop, 4 handed.

Flop

K Q 10

BB leads, MP1 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, BB 3 bets, MP1 caps, Hero calls, CO calls.

Thoughts: With the way BB played in the past, AA, AK, KK and QQ are all possible, I will be better able to define his hand on the turn (he will likely lead, KK or QQ, and check AA and AK hoping to call 1 on the turn if he gets the chance). I have no read on MP1, but, judging by preflop action, I doubt overset, leaving KQ, AJ and some odd play w/ AK or KJ or something like that to account for flop cap. CO likely has a naked ace.

14BB going to the turn
Turn [ K Q 10 ] 3

BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, CO folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Thoughts: Once BB checks, set Q's and set K's can be elimated. He's on AA or AK, which he's hoping to check and get to call one bet to try to improve on the river. MP1, i'm still not sure on. I could be behind, but, my raise is to drive out gutshot type hands, since I'm almost certainly drawing live vs MP1 or already have him beat. His turn call of the raise is makes me lean toward putting him on KQ (or maybe just a horrible overplay of AK). given that a blank falls on the river, the plan is for him to likely check river to hero, and bet, calling a c/r (the pot will be just too large to give up).

18BB going to river (heads up)

[ K Q 10 3 ] 5

MP1 bets, Hero???

Thoughts: I have to at least call, but is a raise in order? He didn't 3 bet the turn, so AJ (or J 9 for that matter) are highly unlikely. Preflop play does not indicate an overset, and a hand like KQ or AK (vastly overplayed) would be forced to call a river raise. If 3 bet, size of the pot dictates calling last bet. Thoughts on what exactly to do on the river.

[BigEndian]

I raise the river and call a 3-bet. It's pretty straight-forward from where I'm sitting and the cost of a raise/calling-mistake is minor in relation to the size of the pot.

- Jim

[jb9]

Without a read, I think I raise the river and call a 3 bet (expecting to lose).

Weird play by MP1 though -- I'm guessing 2 pair or KJ.

[W. Deranged]

Endian,

I'm a little confused how pot size comes into play here.

Obviously hero is not folding.

So the call v. raise question seems to be an "absolute" one; namely it is in no way indexed to pot size. Calling when he should have raised or vice versa is always a 1 BB mistake, regardless of pot size. There are some distant (third-order-ish) effects that may slightly effect the outcome (namely that a large pot might slightly increase the likelihood of villain calling a river raise that he would not have called at a lower level or slightly increase the chances he's bluffing), but I cannot see any primary significance of pot size in this decision.

Could you explain?

-Will

[BigEndian]

It was an off-the-cuff remark that making a 1-2BB mistake here in an 18BB+ pot is pretty minor. Making a 1-2BB mistake in a 5BB pot is huge. So in the end, if the raise turns out to be wrong, it's not a crime.

- Jim

[W. Deranged]

I still think this reasoning is flawed.

The river mistake is 1 BB regardless of pot size. The effect at the end of the day of making a 1BB mistake in an 18 BB pot and a 5BB pot is exactly the same.

This situation is entirely different from ones where there are more cards to come, you are bluffing, etc... where your expectation for that play depends on the size of the pot. Your EV in this situation is absolute.

It's a fairly nit-picky but crucial (in my opinion) point.

[BigEndian]

That's a good point.

- Jim

[ThomasPHoolery]

Deranged,

We shouldn't be so quick to dismiss those 3rd order effects. For the same reason why Hero would call a 3-bet on the river, the villian will likely call a river raise w/ a weaker hand than normal. We expect a call in this situation much more often when ahead than we would in a small pot, and the likelyhood that the river bet is a form of a bluff, hoping I'm on a hand like J10s increases. Those factors, along w/ the odd turn call/ river lead, may tilt this to a river raise.

Conclusion: Hero called, Villian showed AQ for a pair of queens. River bet looks like one last shot to salvage the pot.