KingDan
07-08-2005, 02:54 PM
Right after I pushed all-in , I felt that I [censored] up.
This is my first ICM calculation, so can someone check the math?
The following hand was from a 50+5 on PP
Blinds 200/400
Important Reads: BB has been folding WAY too much.
UTG has 4560 Chips
Button has 3070
SB (me) 1280 after posting
BB 490 After posting
Folded to me, I see 23s and push anyway.
Against random hand 23s is 35% =1.8-1 underdog
I did the ICM calculation and saw..
Before hand my ev was .2044
If I fold, my EV is .176
If I push, get called and lose it drops to .09 (and this is twice as likely as winning if he calls)
If I win it is .2987
If he folds (unlikely) .2491
EV if fold= .176
EV If Push (assuming he never folds) approximately .16
Given my read that he may make a crazy fold EV if he folds =.2491
5% of fold chance, = +.004 to the EV, 10% chance .008
So if my math is correct, folding is better than pushing is better by somewhere between .8/1.2% of the prize pool.
This is my first ICM calculation, so can someone check the math?
The following hand was from a 50+5 on PP
Blinds 200/400
Important Reads: BB has been folding WAY too much.
UTG has 4560 Chips
Button has 3070
SB (me) 1280 after posting
BB 490 After posting
Folded to me, I see 23s and push anyway.
Against random hand 23s is 35% =1.8-1 underdog
I did the ICM calculation and saw..
Before hand my ev was .2044
If I fold, my EV is .176
If I push, get called and lose it drops to .09 (and this is twice as likely as winning if he calls)
If I win it is .2987
If he folds (unlikely) .2491
EV if fold= .176
EV If Push (assuming he never folds) approximately .16
Given my read that he may make a crazy fold EV if he folds =.2491
5% of fold chance, = +.004 to the EV, 10% chance .008
So if my math is correct, folding is better than pushing is better by somewhere between .8/1.2% of the prize pool.