NL100 Hand: Fold bottom set here?

[HoldEmKillah]

No particular read except the villian is loose (VP$P = 56%) yet not very aggressive (PFR = 4%, AF=2). Villian's read on me could be that I can be a bit laggy, raising often and stealing quite a few pots

Do I dump my bottom set here? Laying down a set on a dry board like this is very difficult for me. Am I behind and if not, what hands am I ahead of here and why? I felt sick when he played his stange c/r on me on the turn. After all, he would have no reason to think I would bet the turn since I checked the flop. In my mind he either has a monster or is bluffing, thinking I'm trying to steal it on the button.

Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB ($102)
BB ($216.85)
UTG ($408.38)
MP ($67.9)
Hero ($125.81)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $3, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($9.50) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($9.50) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, BB calls $6, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $15</font>, Hero calls $9, BB folds.

River: ($45.50) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $40</font>,


Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero calls $40.
Final Pot: $125.50
UTG has Jd Jc (three of a kind, jacks).
Hero has 3c 3d (three of a kind, threes).
Outcome: UTG wins $125.50. [/color

[swolfe]

bet the flop

[HoldEmKillah]

We could start another fifty threads about not slowplaying sets. I understand why many would advocate betting this flop but regardless, I don't mind not giving a free one here on a rainbow board when the only way my opponent will make a straight on the turn is if a 6 or a 10 falls and someone is holding 4 5 or 8 9. I'll take that chance here and let them catch up, hoping someone picks up 2 pair or top pair on the turn. I'm happy with my flop play and wouldn't play it any other way but to each their own. I'm confused about the next 2 streets and weather or not my set is any good.

Thoughts on the turn and river anyone?

[Maulik]

I will stack my lower set every time. More importantly on a drawless board against a VP$IP 56%, all the more reason to pay him off.

[amoeba]

against a typical loose passive, i think you played it fine.

[Sephus]

folding the river is out of the question.

[Finite_Risk]

AA would likely play this the same way - I think you have to get stacked here

[subzero]

The whole reason for calling a preflop raise with 33 is to flop a set (and you did). I'd need to have a really strong read to lay this one down. Betting the flop might help to define your hand for the turn and river. Without any reads, I probably would've pushed on the turn or river. I'm okay with losing to an overset, but I'd be pretty upset if I folded, only to have top pair or two-pair shown to me.

[HoldEmKillah]

Those of you are saying they would get stacked here: are you saying you would RAISE this river? Seriously?

[amoeba]

thats what they are saying.

I think turn checkraise is quite suspicious thus on river I suspect either monster or pure bluff thus I call and not raise.

[SLEEPER]

The first thing mentioned in the post is how our villian is extremely passive.... given his preflop raise, turn checkraise, and then big bet on the river, I would start to get worried that he has a set... a passive player does not turn checkraise and bet out big on the river with AK... the only holding that he could have that we beat, is AA, but I would have thought that he would bet it on the flop.... he is loose, but extremely passive, and yet in this hand, he is going crazy with the betting. This is exactly the type of player that you can safely fold a set too....

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
AA would likely play this the same way - I think you have to get stacked here

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree completely. UTG is very likely to bet the flop with AA.

i would have gotten stacked here because i would have been betting/raising on every street.

once you get to the river on this hand, it's a question of how often he calls a river raise with a hand that you beat.

on the river i'm putting him on AK, KQ, JJ. it doesn't look much like a bluff. i don't think a raise is terrible, just depends on how loose you think he is.

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
The first thing mentioned in the post is how our villian is extremely passive.... given his preflop raise, turn checkraise, and then big bet on the river, I would start to get worried that he has a set... a passive player does not turn checkraise and bet out big on the river with AK... the only holding that he could have that we beat, is AA, but I would have thought that he would bet it on the flop.... he is loose, but extremely passive, and yet in this hand, he is going crazy with the betting. This is exactly the type of player that you can safely fold a set too....

[/ QUOTE ]

postflop aggression 2 does not mean extremely passive player.

i'll say it again, folding the river is out of the question.

[SLEEPER]

Does that represent 2% of hands he raises after the flop?

[amoeba]

you don't think you are good on the end even 1/3 of the time?

I don't think I can fold here but I don't like reraising either.

[Sephus]

(raise% + bet%)/call%

mine is 2.30, and i'm not a passive player.

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't think you are good on the end even 1/3 of the time?

I don't think I can fold here but I don't like reraising either.

[/ QUOTE ]

vpip 56% is evidence of fishiness, i think a raise can be right in this situation if you've seen past megafishiness postflop.

[SLEEPER]

It is one thing to see many flops, it is another thing to go crazy with the betting.... All I know is this individual is representing lots of strength through the whole hand. Personally, I would probably lay down my hand, however, I also would have reraised the turn.... assuming I didn't think he was so passive. I could see a call being correct, but I am not raising this unless this guy is a complete lag.

[Sephus]

as a rule, people who see many flops make bad decisions when they get there.

[SLEEPER]

I would tend to agree with that... what kind of starting hands do you put on this player when he raises in early position? 56% is very high, but 4% is pretty low.... I would have to treat his raises with respect.... When he doesn't fire out on the flop, I am thinking he probably missed with his AK/AQ or he is trying something funny with QQ,KK and AA, but when he checkraises on the turn, one has to think he actually has a strong hand.... he could have hit his AK, or maybe he comes alive with his AA.... but there are too many red flags going off here.... that is just my opinion given the action of the hand, and his stats! Personally, I don't keep my own stats, but I would think that my Post Flop raising would be much higher....

[Sephus]

4% pfr means AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, KQ, AJ, are his likely holdings. the fact that he's UTG may not matter to him.

if you're agreeing with the call i don't think we're too far away from each other. this is a situation i will usually call in, im just saying there are players out there with stats like 56% 4% 2 against whom raising the river is probably correct.

with no reads whatsoever beyond the stats i think raising is probably at least $10 negative EV.

[wtfsvi]

You are quite much of a passive player (preflop that is, but that's also a way to be passive). I once folded KK to a big open-raise from you preflop, and it was right. (You stacked me once with AA vs. KK too though, but I was on tilt. And I had limped it after limpers in the CO (I guess this proves the tilt-thing=P), so I just couldn't let it go since you couldn't possibly put me on it.)

[SLEEPER]

I don't know the whole stats thing.... I usually pick up on players based on how they have been playing with me...

Given this player is loose, and not passive, I would have to call down, as there is a good chance he has something like AK. I don't know what hand he could hold that he would call a raise from me on the river that I beat.

Assuming his raises preflop are relatively standard, I would have to assume KQ and AJ are not out there....

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
You are quite much of a passive player (preflop that is, but that's also a way to be passive)

[/ QUOTE ]

english please? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

my pfr is 5% vpip 22.5%.

i've heard people argue for a higher pfr but my winrate is at the high end of sustainability so i'm not going to monkey around with it.

by the way, 2.30 is postflop aggression, which is probably what the 2 represents in the OP.

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
so I just couldn't let it go since you couldn't possibly put me on it

[/ QUOTE ]

what's worse is i had the flush draw too. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif