AQo hand - turn decision (playalong)

[NAU_Player]

I'm posting this hand primarily as a learning tool for the inexperienced players on the boards. Please grunch on your first post, then see what other people say.

This is the first orbit at the table for you, and the first time you've seen the villian in a hand.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>

What is your action for the rest of the hand, and why?
What range of hands do you think villian has, and why?

[MrWookie47]

In white:

<font color="white">Call down, but the situation looks grim. If this is his first hand, PP's and s00ted broadways make likely cold calling hands for fairly tight players. However, this is far from conclusive after so few hands. Sets and frushes are definite possibilities, but so are weaker aces, especially AX/images/graemlins/spade.gif. </font>

[NAU_Player]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="white">especially AX/images/graemlins/spade.gif</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="white">A /images/graemlins/spade.gif is on the board.</font>

[marchron]

I think he means a non-spade ace with a side-card spade, like A/images/graemlins/heart.gif/K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Absent any other reads, I think A/3 is his likeliest holding, with a pair-and-a-flush draw also possible.

I'd call here. If the river's a spade, I check and think about it if he bets. If it's not I'd check and call.

[McGahee]

I agree with the grim outlook. Against some players I would 3-bet here, but a typical .5/1 Party player probably ain't popping this turn with anything less than 2-pair. If he was on a draw he would've raised the flop. This is either a made flush, 2-pair, or just somebody who likes to donk. Call down.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he means a non-spade ace with a side-card spade, like A/images/graemlins/heart.gif/K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Sorry that wasn't clear.

[Big Folder]

answer in white
<font color="white"> This could easily be a slowplayed flopped flush draw and this is a common move fish make when they flop a monster. In fact in this small pot I'd probably just fold since villian could have the flush, could have maybe hit two pair, had a set on the flop or turn, could be drawing to the flush or have an ace that you outkick. The last being the least likely.

I'm guessing the answer that most will say is call down for a cheap showdown since you have zero reads on the guy you don't know if he is capable of bluffing in this spot, or slowplaying and maybe its best to just call down to see what he has. But again to me, in this small of a pot and this move being playing by an unknown I'd just fold.

Since he is unknown its very tough to say his range of hands. He could be a rock slowplaying AA for all we know. But for the standard low limit player I'd say his range of hands could be any two spades, any pocket pair, a9, a3 </font>

[imported_The Vibesman]

I find it particularly hard to put an unknown coldcaller on a range as some people will call a raise with any hand they would limp with, some call a raise with any hand they would raise with, and some call a raise with any hand. I hardly ever coldcall.
I think a reasonable guess might be something like a mid-to-low pocket pair (9's or less?), two broadway cards, perhaps suited. KJ or worse for the broadways. I don't think he's got an ace.
The turn raise seems to mean "I slowplayed my flush" but it could mean the same thing for a set, flopped and slowplayed or turned. He could have ATo and be overplaying, I guess.
Without a read my plan is to call this down, pretty much no matter what card falls on the river. Just as much for information on my opponent that I can use in the future as anything else.
Maybe I've been seeing too much bluff-raising lately. But that's what I would do. I also want to know, will he slowplay the flop or not?

[NAU_Player]

Ok, so everyone is saying to call it down. Fair enough, but given that each of you has come to the conclusion that we are behind at this point, with little or no chance of improving, how profitable is it in the long run to call down in this situation? How often to we get shown a hand that we actually beat? You say to call down, but you don't really explain why.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so everyone is saying to call it down. Fair enough, but given that each of you has come to the conclusion that we are behind at this point, with little or no chance of improving, how profitable is it in the long run to call down in this situation? How often to we get shown a hand that we actually beat? You say to call down, but you don't really explain why.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have outs against 2-pair depending on which 2-pair he has, and I think 2-pair is more likely than a flush. Throw in the small chance that he's bluffing and the information we get from villian and I think it's a call.

[Dave G.]

In white:<font color="#FFFFFF">
You are getting 6.5:1 when its back to you. This could be a weaker ace, but not likely. It's more likely to be two pair, a set or a flopped flush. Without a further read on villain I'm not going to assume he's tricky enough to bluff-raise.

My instincts say to call down. We can improve to a hand that can win if we are behind two pair or something, and without knowing much about villain, I'm not ready to fold top pair just yet. I expect to pay off most of the time.

I'd like to break this down mathematically though, so here goes. If villain has a set or a flush you are drawing dead. In terms of probability, the chance that villain was dealt 2 spades is roughly 4.3%. The chance that he was dealt a pocket pair that is now a set is about 0.8%. The chance that he has two pair is about 1.7%, and the chance that he has a random ace with an unpaired kicker is about 3.4%. However, this is villains least likely holding, so we can halve this value to 1.7% to try for a more accurate estimation.

It is reasonable to conclude that villain wouldn't be playing this way with much else, unless he's a complete donk. So if we conclude that these are villains only possible holdings at this point and weight the probabilities accordingly, we end up with: 50.5% chance of a flush, 9.5% chance of a set, 20% chance of two pair and 20% chance of a lone ace.

~60% of the time we are drawing dead.
20% of the time we are good.
20% of the time we have 9 outs to a better two pair, which corresponds to a 17.3% chance of improving.

It will cost us 2BB to show down from here. So the EV of calling this down is:

(-2)*0.6 + (-2)*(0.2)*(0.827) + (7.75)*0.2 + (7.75)*(0.2*0.173) = +0.28 EV.

It's pretty close, and given the inaccuracies involved in estimating his likely holdings, I'd err on the side of calling down here. (And hopefully the math is done correctly too...)
</font>

[MrWookie47]

We're getting almost 4:1 on calling down. I think it's pretty easy to come up with 1 hand we're ahead of for every 4 we're behind that could be played this way. With a better read, it'd be an easier decision to either fold now or to call down.

[NAU_Player]

[ QUOTE ]
In white:<font color="#FFFFFF">
You are getting 6.5:1 when its back to you. This could be a weaker ace, but not likely. It's more likely to be two pair, a set or a flopped flush. Without a further read on villain I'm not going to assume he's tricky enough to bluff-raise.

My instincts say to call down. We can improve to a hand that can win if we are behind two pair or something, and without knowing much about villain, I'm not ready to fold top pair just yet. I expect to pay off most of the time.

I'd like to break this down mathematically though, so here goes. If villain has a set or a flush you are drawing dead. In terms of probability, the chance that villain was dealt 2 spades is roughly 4.3%. The chance that he was dealt a pocket pair that is now a set is about 0.8%. The chance that he has two pair is about 1.7%, and the chance that he has a random ace with an unpaired kicker is about 3.4%. However, this is villains least likely holding, so we can halve this value to 1.7% to try for a more accurate estimation.

It is reasonable to conclude that villain wouldn't be playing this way with much else, unless he's a complete donk. So if we conclude that these are villains only possible holdings at this point and weight the probabilities accordingly, we end up with: 50.5% chance of a flush, 9.5% chance of a set, 20% chance of two pair and 20% chance of a lone ace.

~60% of the time we are drawing dead.
20% of the time we are good.
20% of the time we have 9 outs to a better two pair, which corresponds to a 17.3% chance of improving.

It will cost us 2BB to show down from here. So the EV of calling this down is:

(-2)*0.6 + (-2)*(0.2)*(0.827) + (7.75)*0.2 + (7.75)*(0.2*0.173) = +0.28 EV.

It's pretty close, and given the inaccuracies involved in estimating his likely holdings, I'd err on the side of calling down here. (And hopefully the math is done correctly too...)
</font>

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potd. good job

[MrWookie47]

Your math is correct, but I could pretty easily see a villain with a pair and one spade raising here. That does nothing but help the case for calling down.

[imported_The Vibesman]

As I said, I'm calling more for information than anything else. It's not a standard play for me, but I would like to know about my opponent here. Assuming I'm going to be sitting at this table for a while, I'd like to know what my opponent will coldcall with and if he has been betting straightforward or not. If he turned a set, that's info to me. If he coldcalls w/ Q9 suited that is also info to me. If he was willing to call the flop and raise the turn w/o a spade, again, info. He's going to be acting after me, I need to know a few things. Here I've got a top pair hand and the ability to close the action at one bet on this turn and the river, so it's as good an opportunity as any to look him up and see what he's betting.
Maybe my opinion is colored by the fact that I've been getting bluff-raised a lot lately.
Plus, the pot is small when the turn action starts, but it's getting to the large point when he pops the raise.

edit: and reading Dave G's post made me happy. Nice post, dude.