A hand for all the lovers out there

[Homer]

Party Poker 2/4. Standard loose, fairly passive/predictable table.

I'm dealt A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif A /forums/images/icons/club.gif UTG+1. I open-raise, an MP poster and the BB call. Three to the flop.

Flop: 3 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

BB checks, I bet, MP raises, BB folds, I reraise, MP caps, I call.

Turn: Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

I bet, MP calls.

River: K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

I check, MP checks.

Comments?

-- Homer

[Homer]

MP had A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

-- Homer

[travisand]

I think you played the hand well, but my opinion doesn't amount to a hill of beans I just like to post.

The check on the river was fine because you weren't going to get called unless somebody had the flush. Occasionally somebody will probably call with the king or queen but I don't believe this happens enough to make it worth betting.



And by the way, if I am getting annoying by posting so often somebody tell me and I will shut up.

[Ed Miller]

And by the way, if I am getting annoying by posting so often somebody tell me and I will shut up.

I'm annoyed that you don't post more...

[spiral]

Bet the river. The most likely hands for MP are a big heart or an 8. If his big heart was a Q or K he will call you for sure in the PP 2/4 game. A flush is unlikely, and your opponent would usually raise the turn with a made flush (unless it was the nuts, and often even then).

You might sometimes be behind to some sort of queens up or kings up, or even a flush, but often your opponent won't raise if you bet, so it's even better. You have to call on the end if bet into, and your opponent will check many mediocre hands that he would have called with.

[Homer]

My read was that my opponent was on a heart flush draw with the Ah, not on top pair with 8s (though there was a small chance of Ah8x). This is because I don't think my opponent would cap the flop with a lone pair of 8s after I raised preflop and three-bet the flop. It seemed clear that he was taking another stab at a free card. Since the side card to his Ah was more likely to be a random card than an 8, I felt it would be unlikely that he would be able to call on the river. Therefore, I checked the river in an attempt to induce a bluff. I think this has more value than betting the river in this situation, but I am open to discussion.

-- Homer

[bad beetz]

his lack of a turn raise but a flop cap reads like "I have top pair and nut or second nut flush draw" to me.

I would bet the river as he will call you, if the K and Q weren't there, which stand a high chance of giving him two pair with the intial read unless he's pumping his Ah8x.

I play it the same way you do.

[RockLobster]

Beetz--

I'd consider adding a black leather jacket or some tattoos to your beet picture... it doesn't look so bad to me.

/forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[bad beetz]

http://www.4moores.com/Rock_Gifs/exploding2small.gif

dope! /forums/images/icons/cool.gif

I think I can get my buddy at lucasfilm to whip up a beet wtih jacket logo.

[ZManODS]

It seems like you post/play a lot of poker. Should i take it as a good sign that i would have played that hand the same way /forums/images/icons/grin.gif I loved every move including the river which some people seem to disagree with. My rationale is that you would only be called by a better hand (flush in this case). Is that what you were doing?

[JTG51]

Homer, looks like you had a good read and played it perfectly.

Nice hand.

Do you ever play a hand poorly anymore? If you don't start screwing up some more hands, you are going to have to change your handle. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[Homer]

My read was that my opponent had the A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif and a random side card 2-J (with a Q or K he likely would have reraised me preflop). There was a slim possibility that he had A8 and would call my river bet with that, but other than that exact hand, I don't think there is any hand he could have that he would call with (provided my read was correct). He can't have a pair of queens or kings because he would have raised preflop with AK and AQ. I'm fairly certain he would fold A3 and A2, though you never know with the way some low-limit opponents play. Thus, I figured if I bet there was at a maximum a 10% chance he would call (1/10 chance of having A8 versus A2, A3, ..., AJ), giving a river bet a maximum EV of .1 big bets. If I check to him he might check it through, but that's okay, because I am only need him to bluff bet 10% of the time or more in this situation to make checking a superior play to betting.

-- Homer

[Homer]

I play plenty of hands poorly. It's just that usually I can review those myself and spot what I deem to be rather obvious errors. Usually when I post a hand, I can't come to a conclusion on my own as to what is the best play, so I post it here and see what others think. I'm mainly interested in the thought process of the other posters on these hands, not the conclusion they come to based on that thought process. For example, in this hand, a few posters said to bet the river because they thought my opponent had a decent pair that he would call on the river with and a mediocre-decent flush draw that didn't get there. I didn't consider this possibility as I was fairly certain that he was solely on the nut flush draw. Of course it is possible that I was fairly certain of this because I didn't consider all the other options. That's why I post the hand here. I want to make sure I wasn't being narrowminded or results-oriented. Anyhoo, I don't know what my point is so I'll stop. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

-- Homer

p.s. - The next hand I post I will either lose or win but make a mistake causing myself multiple big bets (like the hand where I didn't see my straight flush on the river)

[JTG51]

Oh yeah, I forgot aobut the straight flush hand. That was more than worthy of the name Homer J. Simpson. You are off the hook. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Sometimes it's hard to comment on specific plays in a hand, because they are so heavily based on reads that we just don't see. It looks to me like you made every decision on this hand based on a solid read, and I think every decision was correct. Especially the river check. Given your read, it seems unlikely your opponent has a pair, unless it was A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif Kx, which he's likely to bet on the river.

[RockLobster]

Thanks Beetz!

I can't wait to see the "newer & badder" Beetz logo!

/forums/images/icons/grin.gif

btw - I copied this to my web space, so you don't have to host the graphic any longer than you want to... thanks again!

[bad beetz]

It's not my graphic, in fact, it's probably copywrited, hopefully, they'll never find out or care.

cheers,

[spiral]

Your thoughts make sense, and you were the one at the table. I'll just add a few more notes in case it's helpful. I won a lot playing the party 2-4 once upon a time but maybe it was in spite of making this river bet /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

It sounds like what we really disagree about is whether your opponent is likely to bluff on the river here. I would say no: you capped the flop and then led the turn out of position. I just can't think of a hand that you would be willing to fold for 1 bet on the river after that, that I can't beat in a showdown with Ace high. Maybe 99, TT, JJ, but most would call a river bet even with those. Therefore a bluff is wasted and it's better to check it down.

If you agreed with that, I'd imagine you'd like the river bet.

I believe that when your opponent bets the river, the vast majority of the time it's going to be a value bet. I also think your opponent will call with more hands than he will bet. I think most will usually check behind with Ace high and 1 pair hands, but might call with the one pair hands. Some complete fools will call with ace high but not usually.

[spiral]

Homer,

It seems to me that if you are reading him for Ax, you don't think he is very good. As it turned out, he had A9o, which I think is a pretty bad call preflop. Once you suspect that he plays poorly, doesn't that increase his chance of having A2 or A3, and the chances that he will call with those on the river?