Bubble decision as 3rd stack, AQ in BB

[kamrann]

Party Poker $50 + $5, Big Blind is 300 (4 handed)

UTG (1040)
BTN (2900)
SB (4080)
<font color="#008800">Hero (1980)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif
1 fold, <font color="#CC0000">BTN raises to 1100</font>, 1 fold, <font color="#008800">Hero calls</font>.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#008800">Hero goes all-in for 880</font>, BTN calls.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>

River: 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>

Total Pot: 4110


Is this an easy fold? I was multitabling and actually misread the stacks a little, thinking I was t300 less better off than the short stack that I in fact was. Would that change your decision?

[junkmail3]

He could very likely be stealing, and you have a very nice hand.

I would have pushed. This makes the rest of the hand easy.

[schwza]

folding would be pretty bad, imo. i think calling and pushing if you miss and check-raising if you hit is the best play. just pushing now is fine also. but if villain folds any hand after you miss the flop, that's a coup for you.

[gumpzilla]

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I would have pushed. This makes the rest of the hand easy.

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Unless button is asleep at the wheel, pushing accomplishes nothing. He can't fold getting the odds he'll be getting. The stop and go is the way to play this if you're going to play it.

I'm a bit up in the air on what to do with this one. I think it's kind of marginal either way. And yes, your chip position relative to the short-stack is probably the most important variable. If he had 300 less I think it would most likely be a fold, and if he had 300 more (as you thought) then I think calling is probably not so bad. I tend to call in these kinds of situations a little too often, though, so take that with a grain of salt.

[junkmail3]

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I would have pushed. This makes the rest of the hand easy.

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Unless button is asleep at the wheel, pushing accomplishes nothing. ...

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Pushing here is not intended to get the button to fold (though he may), but I think you're in the pot with him with a better hand most of the time, so why not get the rest of your chips in here? (And if he does fold, well, that's fine too).

[gumpzilla]

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Pushing here is not intended to get the button to fold (though he may), but I think you're in the pot with him with a better hand most of the time, so why not get the rest of your chips in here? (And if he does fold, well, that's fine too).

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The stop and go gets your chips in the middle as well, but with a greater chance of him folding.

[kamrann]

Just to clarify, it was my stack I got confused about. I looked and thought I had 1680 to his 1040, forgetting that I'd just posted 300 and he was about to next hand.

Something else of relevance was that UTG had been reasonably tight from what I had noticed, certainly not a LAG.

[junkmail3]

I see your point.

[Scuba Chuck]

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folding would be pretty bad, imo. i think calling and pushing if you miss and check-raising if you hit is the best play. just pushing now is fine also. but if villain folds any hand after you miss the flop, that's a coup for you.

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While I'm torn on this topic, as I would need more reads on bigstack, why are you saying "folding is bad?" I actually think that if hero's stack was slightly bigger, say t2400, folding is a little more preferable, and that if hero's stack is slightly smaller, say t1400, pushing is absolutely preferable.

This stack is sort of In the Middle.

[kamrann]

Doh, not UTG, I meant the button, who raised in the hand, had been playing fairly tight.

[schwza]

wow, i'm surprised you think this is close. against any reasonable range for button, hero is way ahead, and being offered nice pot odds. i know going out in 4th is pretty heinous, but i think folding this hand would be taking that idea too far.

has anyone run this through powertools? i'd give a range for button of A2+, K5+, Q7+, J8+, T9, 22+. if you have a different range for button, i'm all ears, but i don't think this is unreasonable, as some people are pushing any 2 here.

[schwza]

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Doh, not UTG, I meant the button, who raised in the hand, had been playing fairly tight.

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oh, this is kinda significant. my range is probably much too wide now.

[gumpzilla]

The issue isn't whether you're ahead of button's range or not, which you assuredly are. The issue is that ICM says you're going to need to win this pot if you get all your chips in something like ~66% of the time in order for it to be profitable. About the only way you're going to get that with AQ is if he's pushing nothing but A's and Q's. Also, since the shorty is UTG, I think that's even more incentive to fold. (EDIT: Using dethgrind's page, I get that you need to win .21/.33, so I was a little high before, but still, you need to win a lot.)

[45suited]

I'm in the "fold" camp on this one. Being ahead isn't the point, for the reasons that Gumpzilla pointed out.

[Scuba Chuck]

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Doh, not UTG, I meant the button, who raised in the hand, had been playing fairly tight.

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Well, that makes this decision quite a bit easier.

[kamrann]

I just went back through the hand histories. He had been playing VERY tight since amassing a good stack early on with two premium hands and a nut flush. Plus remember that he isn't the big stack. The chip leader is on his left, which is another reason he isn't likely to raise here without a solid hand. Anyway, given all this I think in retrospect it's a clear fold. The problem is while multi-tabling I find it very hard to keep track of who is playing tight and who isn't on each table, so I didn't have this information at the time really.

Also, I would say that just looking at ICM numbers isn't enough here. The size and location of the blinds relative to the short stack mean ICM will be somewhat off in it's equity figures in this situation.

[Scuba Chuck]

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wow, i'm surprised you think this is close. against any reasonable range for button, hero is way ahead, and being offered nice pot odds. i know going out in 4th is pretty heinous, but i think folding this hand would be taking that idea too far.

has anyone run this through powertools? i'd give a range for button of A2+, K5+, Q7+, J8+, T9, 22+. if you have a different range for button, i'm all ears, but i don't think this is unreasonable, as some people are pushing any 2 here.

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Schwaza, let's continue your discussion with your implied hand range for the moment. And I'd like to take Gumps' analysis into this conversation. The issue is, that you want to be ahead on this hand by 2:1 or better consistently here. Unfortunately, I don't think that's the case.

When there's a shorter stack, and you have him covered by 80-120% as the second short stack, I believe you get into that strange mode of avoiding calling too much. This might be a mindset leak, I dunno. I've just made this range up, I've never read it anywhere. That being said, when you fall below this range, IMO, you're in the same boat as shorty, and don't have any luxury with regards to time. And when you're significantly above this range, there are ample opportunities to take chips away from bleeding bigstacks.

Scuba

[45suited]

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has anyone run this through powertools? i'd give a range for button of A2+, K5+, Q7+, J8+, T9, 22+. if you have a different range for button, i'm all ears, but i don't think this is unreasonable, as some people are pushing any 2 here.

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With the bigstack in the SB and the fact that button is in easily 2nd, I think it would be extremely unreasonable to put the button on any two here, regardless of whether or not you had a read due to mult-tabling.

If you were button would you push any two? I think that the range that you're putting the button on is WAY too broad here.

[schwza]

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has anyone run this through powertools? i'd give a range for button of A2+, K5+, Q7+, J8+, T9, 22+. if you have a different range for button, i'm all ears, but i don't think this is unreasonable, as some people are pushing any 2 here.

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With the bigstack in the SB and the fact that button is in easily 2nd, I think it would be extremely unreasonable to put the button on any two here, regardless of whether or not you had a read due to mult-tabling.

If you were button would you push any two? I think that the range that you're putting the button on is WAY too broad here.

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no, i definitely would not push any two. what i would do is raise a touch less than button did with any 2, clearly announcing "i'm willing to play for BB's stack, and i'll let you know how i feel about playing against SB if he pushes." because i know BB will not play without a premium hand. maybe premium-er than i realized.

edit: oh i see now that in the quoted text i wrote that many would push any 2 here. replace "push" with "raise" and it makes more sense.

[gumpzilla]

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Also, I would say that just looking at ICM numbers isn't enough here. The size and location of the blinds relative to the short stack mean ICM will be somewhat off in it's equity figures in this situation.

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The short stack is about to go through the blinds, which suggests to me that you should be folding even more than ICM says because shortstack is likely to bust soon. So if ICM says fold, I think this is a pretty clear fold.

[kamrann]

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you should be folding even more than ICM says because shortstack is likely to bust soon

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Yep you're right. I knew this was a situation where ICM was not so accurate, it was only just after I posted that I realised it was more of a fold than ICM says rather than less of one.

We all seem to have come to pretty much the same concensus then: fold.

[schwza]

i agree with .21 for the fold case, but if you call and double up, i have stacks of 4110 (hero), 920, 3930, 1040, which gives .35 equity for hero, meaning hero needs to win 60%.

as for extra-ICM considerations, i think that if you fold here, there's a high chance that tight button (now utg) will fold. if button folds, you're in an ugly situation. if you push and lose, you're now short. if you refund the BB, he has almost as many chips as you and you're in a dogfight. if i'm bigstack button there, i'm not too aggro in stealing the blind of the loosest guy there, so it will often get folded to you.

on the other hand, if you push and double up, you're in great shape. it's you and the guy on your right at 4k and the others at 1k, so you should be able to steal from the short guys for a bit while they try to outlast each other. ICM gives the short stacks' joint equity as .31, but i think it's significantly lower, as you and the other big stack get heads up most of the time (meaning they get .20 between them). so i actually think .35 is an underestimate of your equity if you double up here, so you need less than .6.

now, the button might be so tight we're no better than even money against his range, in which case we'd have to fold anyway.

[gumpzilla]

Yeah, I think my numbers were pretty off. I think I had SB and not button pushing, is my guess. Winning 60% of the time is now within the realm of reasonability.

[Scuba Chuck]

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now, the button might be so tight we're no better than even money against his range, in which case we'd have to fold anyway.

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Well, I think this describes the case at hand, the way OP had intended.

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as for extra-ICM considerations, i think that if you fold here, there's a high chance that tight button (now utg) will fold. if button folds, you're in an ugly situation. if you push and lose, you're now short. if you refund the BB, he has almost as many chips as you and you're in a dogfight. if i'm bigstack button there, i'm not too aggro in stealing the blind of the loosest guy there, so it will often get folded to you.

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I think that you're looking at this next hand as the "glass is half empty." While BB (small stack) would have 3xBB+ if he folds to a steal (not by hero), I think this is a possibility. If he's smart, he pretty much has to call any raise made by hero. So, I think hero needs to push top 30% of hands if folded to him on next hand, or he can fold, or he can complete (if this is a possibility). But thoughts on folding...

Hero loses 1.6% in equity to shorty by folding his SB on the next hand. Although this is not desirable, it's not the end of the world.

So the question at hand: Is AQ too big a hand not to put our tournament life at stake here? (Assuming an aggro button). IMO, the answer is still in the gray area. I am swayed back and forth. I guess I don't mind being at 5xBB+ on the button in two hands. That doesn't cause concern. That's why I'm an advocate for folding yet.

[schwza]

this has been a great thread. before reading it i would have called an unknown with AJ for sure, and maybe lower - now i see why i have a disproportionate number of 1st's and 4th's. thanks all.