$400 PLO8 hand

[Wintermute]

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Friday, July 08, 01:27:54 EDT 2005
Table Table 55218 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: Hero ( $454.5 )
Seat 3: LloydFree ( $479.4 )
Seat 4: omahafiend ( $214.11 )
Seat 6: AFCCHAMPPATS ( $542.18 )
omahafiend posts small blind [$2].
AFCCHAMPPATS posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac Ts 2h 7s ]
Hero raises [$14].
LloydFree calls [$14].
omahafiend folds.
AFCCHAMPPATS calls [$10].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, 5c, Td ]
AFCCHAMPPATS checks.
Hero bets [$42].
LloydFree raises [$84].
AFCCHAMPPATS calls [$84].


Given the action here, I think I'm against at least one other nut low draw and for sure a flush draw and perhaps a set. However, only nut low draw + set has me in bad shape. I'll take my chances against nut low draw + flush draw here, and naked nut low or bare flush draw/set will have to really be willing to gamble to call a huge bet, especially since I'm holding the flush ace... so I raise the max:

Hero raises [$336].


I'd appreciate thoughts on the action to this point. The rest of the hand is in white below, I'll post my reaction to everything in a while... <font color="white">


LloydFree is all-In [$381.4]
AFCCHAMPPATS is all-In [$444.18]
Hero is all-In [$62.5]

** Dealing Turn ** [ Qd ]
** Dealing River ** [ Qc ]

Hero shows [ Ac, Ts, 2h, 7s ] two pairs, queens and tens.
LloydFree shows [ Kh, Tc, 7c, Kc ] a flush, king high.
AFCCHAMPPATS shows [ 3h, 2s, 8d, As ] two pairs, queens and eights.
AFCCHAMPPATS wins $62.78 from side pot #2 with two pairs, queens and eights.
LloydFree wins $49.8 from side pot #1 with a flush, king high. LloydFree wins $1363.5 from the main pot with a flush, king high.
There was no qualifying low hand.

</font>

[gergery]

It’s hard to give great advice short-handed since so much of it is playing vs. the other players, so take this with a grain of salt.

I don’t like the jam on the flop. I think the crux of this hand is the fold equity. Basically, don’t think you have any now, as most who will min-raise and cold call a min-raise will also call reraise. But you could have a lot on most turn cards, as if you get a club you can represent the nuts and if you get a high card you can chase a low out and if you get a blank (say high-non-club) you can represent aces/twopair, etc.

Particularly against AFC, who is clearly on a draw – most likely low, but possibly clubs.

So calling the flop and jamming any turn should be a dominant strategy over jamming now, if you believe my fold equity assumptions. And it lets you bail out if AFC jams the turn and you don’t want to continue.

--Greg

[JoshuaMayes]

[ QUOTE ]
I don’t like the jam on the flop. I think the crux of this hand is the fold equity. Basically, don’t think you have any now, as most who will min-raise and cold call a min-raise will also call reraise. But you could have a lot on most turn cards, as if you get a club you can represent the nuts and if you get a high card you can chase a low out and if you get a blank (say high-non-club) you can represent aces/twopair, etc.

Particularly against AFC, who is clearly on a draw – most likely low, but possibly clubs.

So calling the flop and jamming any turn should be a dominant strategy over jamming now, if you believe my fold equity assumptions. And it lets you bail out if AFC jams the turn and you don’t want to continue.

--Greg

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said. I want to be able to bluff these guys out on a later street, so I call rather than push on the flop.

[Wintermute]

I see what you're saying about the ability to bluff on later streets... but I don't think the flush bluff is going to fool anyone (or at least get them to resist the temptation to give the crying call with smaller flush). I mean, I'm definitely agreeing with you guys, but here's what I had in mind, using 2dimes...

with all 3 players in the hand, turns out I was in bad shape:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing 8c 5c Td
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ts 7s Ac 2h 20 82 521 63 12 126 338 0.235
Kc Tc 7c Kh 142 421 188 57 0 0 0 0.447
As 2s 8d 3h 42 100 560 6 126 12 338 0.318

I figured this was probably the case--that there was another nut low draw (that I thought I was probably ahead of for high) but that there was probably a better naked high/high draw out there. Now, knowing that at least one of them *should* fold to this huge reraise unless I'm just up against the perfect combo of hands here, let's see what happens if I get heads up with either:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8c 5c Td
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ts 7s Ac 2h 165 165 594 61 610 0 0 0.503
Kc Tc 7c Kh 186 594 165 61 0 0 0 0.497

Not bad... and:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 8c 5c Td
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ts 7s Ac 2h 226 638 170 12 12 142 413 0.656
As 2s 8d 3h 63 170 638 12 142 12 413 0.344


So you see what I'm getting at with that raise. If either gives me credit like I would expect a rational player to do (two way hand with serious strength, considering I led out, got raised, got an overcall, and am now reraising the max), then I'm in pretty good shape EV wise.

I admit in the back of my mind I sort of thought they were both going to call because they're both pretty stupid and LAGGY (especially the KK guy) but I couldn't resist pulling the trigger... maybe I need to practice a little more self-restraint in that situation.

[miami32]

Imo I would have folded here. I feel like at best I would be getting quartered for the low and have no shot at the high. The guy called a raise cold after checking which pretty much means to me that he would call a big reraise as is so I feel you have no chance at moving anyone off a hand. Now I'm very much new to omaha/8 and pot limit omaha/8 so please tell me why I'm wrong because it seems as though the other posters have a very different opinion then I.

Robert

[Wintermute]

Robert,
I'm starting to think this might be a raise-or-fold situation myself. I mean, calling gives you opportunities to bluff, but when would a bluff be successful? these two guys behind me raised and called a reraise cold as you said, so what card is going to come off and scare them away? I guess *maybe* if a non-flush low card comes I can bet the max with nut low + top pair and get the overpair/flush draw guy to fold, so that I'm not 1/4ing the other nut low guy. But calling seems risky to me...

[emptyshell]

Folding might be the right strategy, but you would have to be a pussie to implement it. Have you ever folded a nut low draw + top pair to a min raise on the flop? Remember, you have your ego to protect, and in that sense you were pot committed on the flop.

[Wintermute]

Yes of course... as you can tell by taking one glance at my avatar, I am indeed the type of person who would never take any action in an actual poker game in this situation other than to raise the maximum. And actually, after thinking it over, I think the right ordering of options in terms of correctness given the math involved as well as the image I find it profitable to project and so forth is (1) raise the maximum, (2) call, (3) fold, with 2 and 3 being very close, but 1 being the clear best play.

Oh yeah, I don't think the word "pussy" is censored here, either.

[gergery]

Personally, I sort like folding there but it's highly situational. But I think calling is better than raising but only because i don't think anyone folds. If they can fold, then raising is clearly better because your hand can be in trouble vs. 2 opponents but rarely in terrible shape vs. 1

However, if the positions of your opponents were reversed, and a Q hits on the turn and you push, then the A23 guy has a tough decision and might have folded, especially with another opponent to act behind him.

-g