Very Odd QQ Hand/Interesting Turn Calculation

[W. Deranged]

10/20 private

UTG player is pretty solid from what I can tell. On the tightish side (I'd estimate around 20% VPIP) and has yet to get out of hand. The two limpers are generally loose, fishy types, though the second limper (immediately to my right) is the table's biggest LAG. BB is a 2+2er in some capacity, though I don't think he posts often on this board. Reasonably solid though on the passive side (cold-calls pre-flop too much, etc...)

10-handed.

Deranged is LP (2 off button) with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

UTG RAISES, two cold calls to Deranged, Deranged THREE-BETS, 3 folds, BB CAPS, all call.

Five to the flop for 20.5 SB.

Flop: A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks (!!!), UTG checks, limpers check, Deranged checks (?????).

Turn: 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB checks, UTG BETS, limpers fold, Deranged....

I'll say I ended up misplaying this hand from here on out, but both the flop and the turn decisions confused me. The turn particularly because I think it is a rare situation where a very specific read vastly effects the odds calculation. My thinking may be too results-oriented, though.

[Dariel86]

I would fold here.

[Moozh]

You probably have odds for the gutshot if you can be reasonably sure you're not going to split it and you feel confident that it won't be raised behind you. I don't think you're ahead here.

[jskills]

With 11 big bets in the pot and 6 outs to make a straight or trips, calling the turn is an easy one to me here. Youre getting 11-1 to make a call that has an approximate 8-1 chance of hitting.

Yes, BB might be waiting to check raise, but he also might be playing QQ, JJ, or TT.

Some people might say raise for a free showdown, but the 2+2er BB who capped preflop and is still in the hand is somewhat scary.

I'd be folding the river unimproved.

[Paxosmotic]

Call the turn, fold the river if you miss. I think you're behind often enough that seeing a showdown isn't worth the bet with QQ.

[W. Deranged]

A call here, in my opinion, is horrible. (Of course, when actually playing the hand, I called and then was angry at myself for having done so).

What is the average number of outs I have on the turn? I clearly have an opinion but I'm interested what others think.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
A call here, in my opinion, is horrible. (Of course, when actually playing the hand, I called and then was angry at myself for having done so).

What is the average number of outs I have on the turn? I clearly have an opinion but I'm interested what others think.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've got 4 outs here. You've got 3 of the 4 jacks (discount the club since that'll give someone a flush), and we'll count the queens as one since someone may be holding a jack. ~11:1 shot of hitting with an ~11:1 pot. It's marginal for sure, but I think that you can call profitably since you'll pick up the slack on the river bets. It's not a call I'd be thrilled with, and I'd be wishing the pot were 3 bets smaller so I could get out of there, but I think it's a call.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
You've got 4 outs here. You've got 3 of the 4 jacks (discount the club since that'll give someone a flush), and we'll count the queens as one since someone may be holding a jack.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think you're discounting enough.
The two queens are almost valueless. Hero may already be losing to a bigger set. One of them is a /images/graemlins/club.gif. And they put 4 to a straight on board.

If a J comes, you split with another queen. And of course the J/images/graemlins/club.gif makes a flush possible.

I'd give myself about 2.5-3 outs in this situation (all for the Js). Add in the chance that BB may be waiting to c/r and I think you have an easy fold.

I think this hand is an excellent example of something I see here often, which is a bias towards continuing in the hand based on the optimistic outcome. The best case here is that the turn call is marginally profitable. The worst case is that you have 3 outs to a chop. In the long run, you're going to end up somewhere between the two and be solidly -EV.

[W. Deranged]

Exactly.

I actually think the situation is even worse than you described it. I think it is optimistic to even count 2 outs on average. Any thoughts why?

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think the situation is even worse than you described it. I think it is optimistic to even count 2 outs on average. Any thoughts why?

[/ QUOTE ]
From a purely technical standpoint, you have at least 1.5 outs since there are 3 unknown jacks that guarantee a split.

From a practical standpoint, there's a really, really good chance that BB has 2 of those Js.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You've got 4 outs here. You've got 3 of the 4 jacks (discount the club since that'll give someone a flush), and we'll count the queens as one since someone may be holding a jack.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think you're discounting enough.
The two queens are almost valueless. Hero may already be losing to a bigger set. One of them is a /images/graemlins/club.gif. And they put 4 to a straight on board.

If a J comes, you split with another queen. And of course the J/images/graemlins/club.gif makes a flush possible.

I'd give myself about 2.5-3 outs in this situation (all for the Js). Add in the chance that BB may be waiting to c/r and I think you have an easy fold.

I think this hand is an excellent example of something I see here often, which is a bias towards continuing in the hand based on the optimistic outcome. The best case here is that the turn call is marginally profitable. The worst case is that you have 3 outs to a chop. In the long run, you're going to end up somewhere between the two and be solidly -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm, your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

[W. Deranged]

That's basically what I'm getting at. Any reasonable range of hands for BB and UTG assure that we are drawing to a miniscule number of outs.

Assume BB has a relatively large capping range, and will cap in this situation with AA-TT and AK. If BB has:

AA or KK: our Qs are dead, so we have at most 4 outs
QQ: we have 4 half-outs to chop (2 effective outs)
JJ: we have 2 outs to broadway, assuming UTG has no Q
AK-TT: we have all 6 outs clean

Given the flop and the multiway nature of the hand, it seems very unlikely to me that BB has AA, KK, or AK, because all of those hands got hammered by the flop and so villain likely would have led out, or, barring that (a missed check-raise or a slow play) would have led the turn. It is possible villain is playing super-slow, but not that likely considering the draw-heavy board. TT is also not that likely because it seems unlikely villain would not lead the turn when he hit his set; and TT is also not a capping hand for many. The only hand that really makes sense for villain (who, again, is fairly rational and cruises these boards) is JJ.

Now consider what UTG has. Assuming a standard range like: AA-99, AK-AJ, ATs, KQ, KJs or something like that, then we should notice that many of these hands either contain a Q or J or give villain an overset and kill many of our outs.

Lastly consider we could still be check-raised by BB which would severaly cut down our effective odds.

My basic point is that there is no way a call could possibly be correct here. About the only it would be is if the villains had exactly TT and AK and no further bets went