Just started reading SSH... need explanation

[Asim]

well, I finally got SSHE and started reading it but somethings are confusing me. On the first section with regards to expectation.. they give a scenario where they assume you will win with AK 25% of the time. to figure out these +/-EV questions, how do you get numbers as to how often you are going to win?

secondly, the calculating outs section is extremly confusing. when they gave the example of QJ and the flop comes (10h 6c 3s)... they dont value the two overcards as full outs.. why is that, and how do you manage to figure out when something is more than half an out. I was just confused and was hoping for a simpler explanation for calculating outs.

Thanks

[chaz64]

Overcards are discounted outs because you will often make TP and still lose. If you are up against one pair on the flop, villain is almost as likely to improve to two pair or trips by the river as you are to improve to TP.

[jrz1972]

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when they gave the example of QJ and the flop comes (10h 6c 3s)... they dont value the two overcards as full outs.. why is that

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Because you are drawing to a very weak hand. It is easy to spike top pair and still lose, so an "out" to top pair should not be treated the same as an "out" to the nut flush. That's the basic idea behind discounting outs; they're discounted to reflect the increased possibility of making your hand and still losing.

[Dave G.]

When you're sitting at the table, it's impossible to calculate these numbers precisely. You have to use your best estimates, taking into account the texture of the board, and the players who are in the hand with you. This takes practice but it becomes easier.

You try to put your opponents on a range of hands and decide how likely it is that your hand is better than theirs. You use their betting actions to help narrow their holdings down. For example, someone who raises and caps preflop is likely to be holding a big pair (AA - QQ) or AK.

The most important factor in determining your EV of any situation is the size of the pot you are contesting. Generally, you should take more risks in big pots and save bets in small pots.

A lot of these concepts just take time to solidify and they'll come with practice. Keep rereading SSH and reading these forums to learn specific examples you can connect with the theory.

[stuartharris]

I'd say that always counting overcards as 3-full outs was one of the major holes in my game when I started playing. In addition to the reasons already given here, you can also be reverse dominated . . . if anyone holds a Q or J and already has a pair with the board, then that overcard is worthless for you.

[Guthrie]

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when they gave the example of QJ and the flop comes (10h 6c 3s)... they dont value the two overcards as full outs.. why is that, and how do you manage to figure out when something is more than half an out. I was just confused and was hoping for a simpler explanation for calculating outs.

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Because any of your opponents could hold TTT 666 333 TT6 TT3 66T 663 33T 336 TT66 TT33 6633 3456. Still want to spike a Q or J? Discounting your outs keeps you from overvaluing a hand that might draw out and still be easily beat.

[Asim]

so do you normally discount them to half an out? how do you discount.. it was hard to understand that part sorry guys!

[jrz1972]

"Each overcard = 1.5 outs" is considered industry standard, yes.

As you gain experience, you'll be able to recognize situations in which an overcard is worth more than that as well as situations in which overcards are worth even less. But that's a good rule of thumb.