Hand played against me

[soah]

Full 2/4 game. Folded to me on the button. I raise to $14. I don't need a premium hand to make this raise but I don't have stupid [censored] like K4o either. You call in the BB with QJo. I view you as aggressive and one of the better players in the game. I started the hand with $500 and you have me covered.

Flop is KTT, two of some suit that you have none of. You check, I bet $22, you call. Turn is a rag. You check, I bet $60, you call. River is a 9. Still no flush possible. You bet close to $200, I push after about four or five seconds, you insta-call.

How well do you think you played the hand?

During the course of the hand, "your" knowledge of my playing is roughly similar to what you can learn about my play by reading some of the posts I've made in these forums.

[xorbie]

We both start with $400 so on the river I need to call $100 right? In that case I'm obviously committing myself with my river bet so once you push the call is pretty much automatic (I'm getting like 7:1).

The question is really on the flop and turn. If I'm Villain on the flop I love to check raise here, or barring that lead the turn. If you do raise either of those, I'm folding because I'd really hate to be up against KT, AT or 9T and those are all possible hands so the reverse implied odds here pretty much suck ass (and if you don't have a T you aren't paying off a potsize river bet with that kind of flop/turn action anyway).

Obviously by the river I think my draw is good, and I'm betting for value, but I can't see myself getting called by a K unless you reeeeally talk yourself into it (he knows I know he's agressive) so unless I've been taking pots from you I honestly lay this down on the flop or bet the turn because I'm not at that pleased with my draw.

[wtfsvi]

Played bad as far as I can see. QJo is a horrible hand in a raised pot OOP, and he has to get aggressive on flop or turn, because implied odds suck when you don't have a boat. And when you do have one, oh well. Stuff sucks then as well.

I say fold preflop, check call flop, check raise turn all-in. Except that only gets called when he's drawing dead. Hum. Just fold preflop.

[jjacky]

preflop is questionable.

the flop and turn is terrible imo, since the draw is not to the nuts. that destroys "my" implied odds.

river: i would not have been there. but it might be a fold.

*edit* thought the stacks where deeper on the river. a fold is probably out of question in this case.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]

How well do you think you played the hand?


[/ QUOTE ]

pretty bad, but not awful. fold preflop, lead flop, fold to raise. if called check/call down when you make it.

fim

PS- FWIW if the board is KT4r its lead/push with 44 or QJ.

[soah]

Well I was certainly pretty stunned when I saw his cards, as his play seemed much worse than my previous read would have predicted. Preflop and flop or sort of "meh" since I may not have much of a hand and maybe he can still steal the pot if I show weakness later. But his turn call seemed completely terrible. He's out of position with a draw on a paired board, and I'm betting big. The only way he has any sort of implied odds here is if I have exactly QT, or maybe if he catches the 9 and I have AT. But the fact that I could have AT is one of the reasons not to draw on this board...

I thought maybe he was planning to bet the river no matter what, hoping to push me off of a king, but that didn't sound too smart either. And if he thinks he can bluff me off of the hand, then why is he betting so much when he hits... rather contradictory to the idea that I am likely to fold to such a bet. Is he trying to sell the idea of a busted flush draw? Maybe he was going to bet big if the flush hit, and also bet big if the straight hit?

This hand happened a couple weeks ago and it still doesn't really make much sense to me. I guess I simply overestimated how good he was.

Results in white: <font color="white">My T9o is goot.</font>

[TheWorstPlayer]

I don't really like it. I'm either c/r-ing the flop or folding the turn. Latter is more likely. And I'm definitely folding the river. If you don't have a boat here, I'd be amazed.

[amoeba]

I think preflop call is ok given your aggressive nature in the button. I might occasionally consider repopping to $45 or $50.

I lead the flop as I'm sure majority of the time you don't have K here. T is possible but its a risk I'm willing to take.

on the turn I would have checked and depending on size of your bet and read, either checkraised or folded.

on the river, after you pushed over my value bet, I'm certain you have the boat.

There is no way you push the river without a boat.

[jjacky]

what did you have?

[soah]

I included them at the end of my previous post. =P

[snappo]

[ QUOTE ]
Results in white: <font color="white">My T9o is goot.</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

[jjacky]

oh...

but nice to have opponents like the one in this hand.

[boxedIn]

You guys really think QJ played it badly? I disagree completely. I think he played it fine, with the exception of the river.

If you have an aggressive player on the button, QJ is a fine hand to defend with, as long as you can feel free to get rid of it with a lot of action on a Q/J high flop. Those that are folding this are losing equity, imo.

On the flop, the KTT board is "too good" to semi-bluff into. There's no way a real T bets that way and probably not a K. A check/call represents a decent hand that could even be a monster.

On the turn, while you're not drawing to the nuts still, you have no reason whatsoever to believe your draw is no good -- the opponent is aggressive, after all, and might be doing raising preflop and the flop with something like A9 and thinks he's good. The turn bet, if you're paying attention, probably throws that out of the window and now you have to give credit for a hand. However, the range could be from AK-KJ to AT-T8 to KK/QQ/JJ/99/88. This is a wide range, all of which would easily play the same way from a tight and aggressive opponent. All told, I believe you have the odds to draw out. You might consider check-raising the turn and getting something such as 88/99/JJ/QQ to fold, but I think your fold equity is greater on the river.

If you check/call all the way to the river, not only do you increase your fold equity, you get good implied odds. Are you guys seriously implying that by the aggressor's betting pattern that you should seriously contemplate that your outs are not clean? I mean it's a consideration, but realistically, it's not going to be often that you find dirty outs with that board and the betting pattern discussed (with the people's image that has been portrayed at least).

I think the preflop call is fine, I think the flop/turn call is fine as long as the person is willing to bet the river semi-strong no matter what comes. In other words, play it like you have a fairly strong K or a T and if you happen to hit your outs, the more power to you -- most of the time you'll make lots of money if the other person happens to have a T/K.

I can't believe no one has defended this play so far. While I can see the argument against it, the play is perfectly defensible as an approach to the game and you could quite possibly be describing a hand where I was the person holding QJ (and I'm no slacker when it comes to poker).

Just as an edit ... once the river bet is raised, you have to make that crying call. The stack size/raise size dictates it. At this point, I'll expect to be beat like 80% of the time, with the other 20% the unpaired T, but from describing the play of the two players, you might up that percentage to 95%. Either way, I'm still not making the river fold, though I might make the river bet a little bit less to give myself options if that raise is made. Still, more than likely, I'm not folding it.

Just as a food for thought, if the river had come an A and he bet out on the river, I'm guessing you would have called with T9. So why do you say implied odds aren't there? Are you seriously saying you'd have thrown T9 away to that kind of action?

[soah]

Assuming he has 8 outs, he needs to get another $200 from me every time he hits in order for the turn call to be neutral EV. When you consider that he may not have eight outs, and he's never getting more than $200 from me when he wins, he cannot possibly be getting enough implied odds to chase.

[boxedIn]

The key here is not the implied odds, but rather the times he will often be able to take down the pot without a showdown. If he makes a fairly strong bet at the pot no matter what the river card, as I advocated, then you will often get a weakish K to throw away their hand, as well as getting the half-bluffing hands (like QQ/JJ/99) to throw away their hands.

This calcuation does not depend upon how much money you'll make if you hit -- it depends on how often you'll make money when you don't hit. That's not really a calculation you can make, as the odds of the bettor being a bluffer or able to lay down a hand such as KJ is hard to determine. But considering all the information presented to me, I think you could take down the pot without a showdown often enough to advocate this approach -- the times you suckout and win a decent pot anyways is just icing on the cake.

[soah]

If you expect me to fold most of the time on the river to a big bet, then it doesn't make sense to make that same bet when you actually do hit your (non-nut) hand. By your own reasoning, I am folding most of the hands that you beat and calling or raising with the rest.

Furthermore, I am not often betting $60 on the turn against an aggressive player without a hand that is capable of calling a bet on the river. My marginal hands are put to much better use by checking and inducing bluffs.... from hands such as busted straight draws.

[bobbyi]

I would fold preflop, and having somehow not done that, I would bet the flop.