Would a flop call be too loose here?

[PuckNPoker]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls, Hero ....

This was bugging me a little, If i didnt discount my sucker gutshot I have 5.5 outs with my BFD. Easy Fold or Easy Call?

Not many reads 20 hands in, not too many hands had gone to showdown at this table, PFR was playing fast and loose though, played about half his hands and brought it in for a raise a lot. But with so few hands on him I wasnt sure if it was a good run of cards or just laggy.

[aK13]

Call that [censored], and it's not even close.

[jaxUp]

Call that. 5.5 outs needs about 7.5:1 to call. You're getting that and more.

[Bodhi]

In raised pots you can usually play a bit looser post-flop. Notice that if the pot were not raised, your odds wouldn't be so good.

[Innocentius]

Call. You are closing the action. If you make your straight you will make at least 2 more big bets on the turn and river, probably more. And you have your BFD. This is more than enough to make up for the times you make your hand and lose.

[dozer]

easy call getting 11 to 1

[Dave G.]

You also have a backdoor wheel draw which is worth an extra 0.5 outs. If that improves you'll have a double gutshot on the turn. Pretty easy call.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
Call that. 5.5 outs needs about 7.5:1 to call. You're getting that and more.

[/ QUOTE ]

how do you knows this? i know the outs/odds for calling on the turn, but i can't figure out the flop odds needed to call /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
how do you knows this? i know the outs/odds for calling on the turn, but i can't figure out the flop odds needed to call /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

SSH has an odds / outs chart on page 30. You can calculate these odds on the fly, but it's much much easier just to memorise this chart down to 9 outs. On the chart, 5 outs requires 8.2:1 to call, and 6 outs requires 6.7:1 to call, so 7.5:1 is a reasonable estimate for 5.5 outs.

[jaxUp]

I was just giving the flop-to-turn odds needed. Obviously the flop-to-river odds will be slightly better, but I figured that they are pretty inconsequential as we will most likely not be getting a free card anyways.

[@bsolute_luck]

i thought those odds were for when only 1 card is still to come.

jax: yeah i was asking about the flop-to-turn odds.

[Watain]

Call the bastard.

The things in consideration is:

- Making you hand on the turn - the str8 - and be beaten by a higher str8. Redraws also highly possible if you make it on the turn.

- Making the flush and be beaten to a higher flush.

- Effective odds, works mostly to your advantage but is somewhat lowered by the points above.

... But since you are closing the action, and might even get a free card on the turn, i would give it a call.

[PuckNPoker]

Thanks all, I had thought it was an easy call but for some reason the hand bugged me a bit.. Here is the rest of the hand sans results, I think I played the river poorly. Not because I went for overcalls, but because I didnt notice that the PFR went to showdown anytime he raised pf.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

River: (14 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB

[crownjules]

Raise that river man! You're behind to only higher flushes. SB's C/R on the turn is not likely on a flush draw but two-pair or set.

EDIT: Actually, overcalls may be better or equal to raising. Depends on if CO will call 2-cold (you already stated the PFR will goto SD which likely means he'll call 2 cold), so it's a close decision. I think I'd go for the raise, however.

[PuckNPoker]

I wasn't afraid of a larger flush, but if I took a bit more time to think about things I definitely should have raised. I really just made a knee jerk "one will get me three, two will get me two" reaction when in fact it is much more likely that raising would have gotten me called in 2 places at least.

[marchron]

At 11-1, you're getting odds for the gutshot alone. Call.

The river . . . gotta raise. You can't figure anyone for a higher backdoor flush given the action. If the ace were a different suit, then A/images/graemlins/heart.gif/X/images/graemlins/heart.gif would factor in, but that's not the case this hand.

[deception5]

Interesting... I would probably raise the river, but if you have reads that these players will both overcall but not call a raise then calling could be more profitable.

[GrunchCan]

Although I agree that you should call here, I think it's closer than most people indicate.

I don't think you discount the value of your hand enough. Your straight draw isn't worth 4 full outs, becasue you won't win 100% of the time if you hit what you're drawing to. It's called a 'sucker straight' for a reason. Your gutshot is probably worth closer to 3 outs. The same is also true of the flush draw, but the discounted value is probably relatively close to the undiscounted value - the BDFD is prob worth 1-1.25 outs. Your hand is therefore worth somewhere around 4 outs. You need 1:12 with 4 outs, and your'e getting 1:11. But it's close enough so the implied odds can pull you in. If SB calls, you've made your odds right there. Go ahead and call here.

[PuckNPoker]

[ QUOTE ]
Although I agree that you should call here, I think it's closer than most people indicate.

I don't think you discount the value of your hand enough. Your straight draw isn't worth 4 full outs, becasue you won't win 100% of the time if you hit what you're drawing to. It's called a 'sucker straight' for a reason. Your gutshot is probably worth closer to 3 outs. The same is also true of the flush draw, but the discounted value is probably relatively close to the undiscounted value - the BDFD is prob worth 1-1.25 outs. Your hand is therefore worth somewhere around 4 outs. You need 1:12 with 4 outs, and your'e getting 1:11. But it's close enough so the implied odds can pull you in. If SB calls, you've made your odds right there. Go ahead and call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually on the flop I took pretty long (had like 8 seconds left on the clock iirc) to calculate everything. I came up with exactly what you posted (I didnt want to prejudice anyone in my initial post and let them come up with their own discounting), I figured myself for around breakeven odds on the flop and the implied odds pushed it to a easy call instead of a "bad call". But for some reason I kept thinking about the hand and wanted to double check myself.

[TomBrooks]

PREFLOP: Call marginal but OK. 54 is so low.

FLOP: Worth a small bet to see one more card. Gutshot outs are a little weak as your on the low end of the 678 it would put on board. I'll count the gutshot outs as a generous 3, the BD flush as 1.5, the BD gutshot on the other side as 1.5. Total outs: 6. You have odds to call.

EDIT: I think Grunch is right to discount the BD FD a little because it's so low. I'll say 1 to that but leave the gutshot as a full 3. That makes 5.5 outs, maybe 5.75. Grunch, you left out the BD wheel. I forgot to figure the bets that went into the flop before it was your turn to act. With those this is an easy call.

[PuckNPoker]

Thanks for your feedback, I have a couple comments I would like to discuss.

[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: Call marginal but OK. 54 is so low.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, 7-1 on my preflop call (since I'm the BB) and I would say an excellent chance I am not dominated here. Plus I think the implied odds are pretty tremendous at this point. Even though I'd love to see the flop for free, seeing it for 1 bet in this spot isnt really marginal is it?

[ QUOTE ]
FLOP: Worth a small bet to see one more card. Gutshot outs are a little weak as your on the low end of the 678 it would put on board. I'll count the gutshot outs as a generous 3, the BD flush as 1.5, the BD gutshot on the other side as 1.5. Total outs: 6. You have odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im pretty sure BD Gutshot straight is much harder to hit than a BD OE straight I dont think the outs are nearly as high as 1.5, anyone know for sure?

[nozyrev]

If you flop a gutshot you are 5:1 dog to complete the straight by the river.
This is the way i compute it:

1) You can make the straight on the turn with probability: 4/47
2) You can make the straight on the river with probability:
(43/47)*(4/46)

So the probability that you complete straight by the river is the sum of 1) + 2) = 16.5%

The odds are just (1/0.165) - 1 =~ 5:1

[nozyrev]

[ QUOTE ]

FLOP: Worth a small bet to see one more card. Gutshot outs are a little weak as your on the low end of the 678 it would put on board. I'll count the gutshot outs as a generous 3, the BD flush as 1.5, the BD gutshot on the other side as 1.5. Total outs: 6. You have odds to call.



[/ QUOTE ]

But you still need to consider the gutshot outs twice (since you can complete the gutshot on the turn and on the river). So they are worth more than 3 outs (in fact they are worth little less than 6 outs)

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
Although I agree that you should call here, I think it's closer than most people indicate.

I don't think you discount the value of your hand enough. Your straight draw isn't worth 4 full outs, becasue you won't win 100% of the time if you hit what you're drawing to. It's called a 'sucker straight' for a reason. Your gutshot is probably worth closer to 3 outs. The same is also true of the flush draw, but the discounted value is probably relatively close to the undiscounted value - the BDFD is prob worth 1-1.25 outs. Your hand is therefore worth somewhere around 4 outs. You need 1:12 with 4 outs, and your'e getting 1:11. But it's close enough so the implied odds can pull you in. If SB calls, you've made your odds right there. Go ahead and call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

From the tone of your post I'm gathering that you would not call the flop in this situation if you were getting only 8:1 or even 9:1. Is this correct?

If it is then I think you're making a big mistake when there are 3 other people in the hand. The implied odds can be much higher than you might think.

I see all these people posting their stats on here and wondering why they're not making money because "they only call the flop when they have the proper odds". Well, if they're folding gutshots on the flop unless they're getting 11:1 or better then they don't know what the "proper odds" are.

I seem to be the only one here making a big stink about this. Am I alone in thinking this way?

[nozyrev]

agree. you don't need 11:1 to call 1 bet on the flop with a gutshot. You need much less than that.

[Shillx]

No. You should be calling this like clockwork dude.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
agree. you don't need 11:1 to call 1 bet on the flop with a gutshot. You need much less than that.

[/ QUOTE ]
Suppose you have no other outs besides a gutshot. How much less than 11:1 do you need?

What would you need for other number of outs than four? How do you figure this?