my one interesting hand from tonight

[aba20]

Live 15/30 game at the Bellagio.

I am in MP and viewed as a tight aggressive player.

MP+1: Solid but not spectacular player, his bets and raises represent what he has. Not the type to put a move on.

Button: Old dude who isn't important in the hand beyond the fact that he put bets in preflop.

BB: Your typical crazy maniac. He has been doing some live straddling. Preflop will raise with anything. Extremely aggressive on the flop but when the expensive streets come he only bets and raises with quality hands.

The action:

PRE-FLOP: I pick up Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif and raise. I am three bet by MP+1, the button calls three cold and the BB two. I make it four bets and MP+1 caps. From this action I know that MP+1 must have AA or KK to cap it, so I have some catching up to do. So there are four of us to the flop for 21 small bets.

FLOP: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif BB now bets out. This means that he has caught some small part of the board, so I put him on a flush draw or a pair, maybe even a gut shot straight draw (he would have check raised a set). I raise and MP+1 just calls saying "do you have two black aces" leading me to believe he has kings or possibly two red aces as he is straight forward. Button folds, three to the turn for 27 SB.

Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif BB bets out again and now I "know" I am behind either his flush, two pair, or straight. So what do I do well raise of course. I am going to leave it there please let me know your thoughts on the turn. I have some thoughts on why I did it but I want to hear what everyone else has to say.

If I did have A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif I would have played the turn completely differently.

[mack848]

On the turn I'd be thinking
1. I'm likely last
2. I have few, if any outs
3. There is no way that both players are folding before showdown.
4. The pot is enormous, so I want to see showdown with top pair.

I would call down, putting as little into the pot as possible.

If I had black aces I would call down the same, because I probably need to make the flush.

[jaxUp]

The turn raise is very interesting. Here's what I'm thinking:

By raising the turn I think we will most often force MP1, thereby picking up 6 extra outs for when BB has 2 pair (maybe 15% of the time). I think he has a set 35% of the time, straight 5% of the time, and flush 45% of the time. Suppose that he has a flush we can beat 25% of the time.

Assume that BB3-bets and we fold 25% of the time (I believe that this would be the right play)

We hit our flush 20% of the time (9/46)
We win with it 50% of the time (25%, adjusted because most hands that beat a Q-high flush would have 3-bet the turn)
We hit a set 4.35% of the time (2/46)
We win with it 60% of the time( 50%, adjusted because most hands that beat a set would have 3-bet the turn)
We hit 2-pair 24% of the time (11/46)
We win with it 15% of the time(7.5%, adjusted because most hands that beat a set would have 3-bet the turn)

When we hit a flush and win: + 18.5 BB
When we hit a flush and lose: - 3 BB
When we hit a set and win: +18.5 BB
When we hit a set and lose: - 3 BB
When we hit 2-pair and win: 18.5 BB
When we hit 2-pair and lose: - 3 BB

All of the above assume we don't want to raise any river card, which I wouldn't feel real comfortable doing.

(-2*.25) + (18.5*0.075) + (-3*0.075) + (18.5*.0196) + (-3*0.0131) + (18.5*0.027) + (-3*0.153) = 1.03BB

Nice Play.

Any glaring errors here? How do people feel about my numbers and assumed play? Did I just waste 15 minutes of my life?

[aba20]

I think folding to a three bet would be the wrong play. In my opinion we have to see the river regardless to see if we can make our flush. I also think a set is very unlikely as he would have been "tricky" with it and tried to trap. He was not the type of player to bet out with a set. Beyond that analysis looks great. I did a very similar analysis without villian having a set and the results were even more favorable. One thing to think about is if he already has a made flush higher than my queen flush. What would you do with aces thought?

[jaxUp]

Aces are particularly interesting because in all probability we've got a big lead on MP1. As such I would love to keep him in the hand while only putting in 1BB ourselves.

[aba20]

[ QUOTE ]
Aces are particularly interesting because in all probability we've got a big lead on MP1. As such I would love to keep him in the hand while only putting in 1BB ourselves.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ya that was my thinking also. I would defenitly just call with aces.

[sekrah]

Trust your read and instincts.. Don't follow "standard play".

If you think you are beat, fold.

[aba20]

[ QUOTE ]
Trust your read and instincts.. Don't follow "standard play".

If you think you are beat, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally disagree with this. I think that the path with the most +EV is to raise. Albeit I am under the assumption that I can put enough pressure on MP+1 to make him fold. Can you elaborate a little more on why you think it is a fold?

[sekrah]

I said it's up to your instincts on what decision to make.

Mechanically, yes, raise is probably the best play with any hand. And this is Low Limit, So you're DEFINENTLY not folding this hand.

You stated you had some doubt you were ahead though.

Everytime I go against my instincts and reads, I lose..

"Mr Instinct" is usually pretty good but they often lose out in the decision process to "Mr. Hope".

But that comes out more in an NL game than this one.

[aba20]

MP+1 folded his kings like planned and I was three bet by the big blind. A blank hit on the river and I called his river bet and he showed K /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. So I managed to put in four big bets while drawing dead. Never the less I still think it was the correct decision.

[ThisHo]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: 7 BB bets out again and now I "know" I am behind either his flush, two pair, or straight. So what do I do well raise of course. I am going to leave it there please let me know your thoughts on the turn. I have some thoughts on why I did it but I want to hear what everyone else has to say.


[/ QUOTE ]

First - interesting hand. I've still got a LOT to learn so seeing the raise on the turn was a nice lesson for me.

I am curious though... the quote above is from your original post and in your last post you state that a brick hit the river and you still called. Can you elaborate on why you'd toss in that last bet?

thanks,
thisho

[aba20]

In poker there are no absolutes and when I said I "know" he had me beat I meant there was a 90% chance that he had me beat on the turn. You can never be 100% sure that you are beat. On the river there were 20.5 big bets in the pot. To show a profit I have to be over 95% sure that I am behind and NOBODY is ever that confident unless they have played with someone for a very along time. Making laydowns like this in large pots is one of the worst things you can do in poker.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
I said it's up to your instincts on what decision to make.

Mechanically, yes, raise is probably the best play with any hand. And this is Low Limit, So you're DEFINENTLY not folding this hand.

You stated you had some doubt you were ahead though.

Everytime I go against my instincts and reads, I lose..

"Mr Instinct" is usually pretty good but they often lose out in the decision process to "Mr. Hope".

But that comes out more in an NL game than this one.

[/ QUOTE ]
Please stop posting advice in these forums.