Carried away?

[WarLordAG]

After the other J fell on the river, I wanted to raise, but just called for safety. I really didn't think he had J however. Would it have been getting carried away to raise him again on the turn or the river, or is this generally the right thing to do long term?
PokerRoom 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, .
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">WarLordAG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">WarLordAG raises</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>. <font color="#CC3333">WarLordAG calls.</font>

River: (8.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>. <font color="#CC3333">WarLordAG calls.</font>

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

[kapw7]

Do you think he has the 4th Jack more than 45% of the times? If not then raise the river.

[jaxUp]

He could be a retard with AA about 5% of the time as well. That said, I still dpn't think that he has the other J often enough to just call this river.

[aK13]

Similar hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=smallholdem&amp;Number=2781070 &amp;Forum=f3&amp;Words=QQ&amp;Searchpage=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;Main=2777 320&amp;Search=true&amp;where=bodysub&amp;Name=30613&amp;daterange =1&amp;newerval=1&amp;newertype=w&amp;olderval=&amp;oldertype=&amp;bod yprev=#Post2781070) that I posted in SS a week or two ago. Might find some of my analysis helpful. Fairly similar to your hand.

I like raising, calling a 3 bet.

[Webster]

HA - reminds me of a nightmare hand at Crypto when the guy DID have the Jack and we went 6 deep on the reraising.


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[McGahee]

Unlike the usual "donkbet when the board pairs" this guy actually bet the flop, so it looks like he might actually have trips on the turn - good call.
You got to raise the river though. He'll call with any boat and probably an A kicker.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

sometimes it doesn't even matter if that last J falls off on the river because against lots of players, you'll know if he has a J based on the turn regardless of what ends up on the river. Intuitively you think that its much less likely now that there are 3 J's on the board based on Bayes Thereom, but you'd be surprised just how often it doesn't even matter sometimes.

Anyways, despite saying all that I never fail to raise this river and if I get 3-bet so be it.