table vpip 30 pfr 5

[DavidC]

AFAIK you're not included in the table stats.

Does this mean that if you have 22 utg you can limp, expecting to see a 5-way flop including the bb and to pay 1.05 bets to do so?

[mack848]

Only occasionally, as when my table is 30/5 it is usually made up of a couple of 40-60% fish and lots of 15-25%'ers.

I limp 22 UTG at 'normal' tables and I am happy with 3-4 to the flop for 1 or 2 bets.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Only occasionally, as when my table is 30/5 it is usually made up of a couple of 40-60% fish and lots of 15-25%'ers.

I limp 22 UTG at 'normal' tables and I am happy with 3-4 to the flop for 1 or 2 bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool.

Thanks.

[HajiShirazu]

No, since 30/5 means that each person behind you raises 5% of the time. So take .95^9 and that's your chance of getting in for one bet.

[AdamL]

63%? Am I understanding this?

[bigalt]

yeah, it would be around the 60s. But it depends on how disparate the values are and how people play in different positions too.

[SmileyEH]

I would not limp 22 in that spot. I would limp 66.

-SmileyEH

[Cosimo]

mmmm, math.

The PFR and VPIP stats are averages of the players' individual stats, not a running table average (ie not "preflop is raised 5% of the time").

The VPIP and PFR numbers are not independent, of course. There's a negative correlation between the number of raises and the number of callers, so there's no way to build a precise table of "x% of the time there's 5 people and one raise", or even "x% of the time there's 5 people".

But yeah, 5-way flop for 1.25 bets seems to be useable as an average.

(I used 1.25 because there's a chance for more than one raise, and 1.05^4 is about 1.215)

Note that variance among the various individuals' VPIP reduces the variance in the total number of people seeing the flop. That is, if everybody was actually 30% VPIP, then you'd see a nice bell curve in the number of people at the flop. However, if some are at 10% and others at 50 or 60%, then the number of people to the flop sharpens up a bit -- it's still a bell curve, it's just that the tails are a lot thinner. Imagine a table with three people at 100% and seven people at 0% -- the distribution curve would have a spike at 3 players and be zero elsewhere.

Practical consequence: at a table with a lot of variance in VPIP, it'll more often be you against a couple fish and one slightly loose player. At a table with low variance in VPIP, you'll see more family pots and also more heads-up flops. As far as table selection goes, I prefer the table with high VPIP variance. Once a table is selected -- I think one needs to tighten up if variance in VPIP is low.