Is my set beat? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

diablo312

07-08-2005, 01:50 AM

Hi,
Should I be worried about QQ, 77, or KK here? I am not sure if I should have 3 bet the turn. Since the pot is so big, I can't see folding being the right play. The button seems to have a very high Aggression but with only 41 hands that number is not very accurate. There are no flush or straight draws. Could they be going this crazy with one or two pair (AA, AQ, AK, QK)?

Thanks

Button is 19/15/6 (41 hands)
UTG is 20/3/0.8 (90 hands)
No stats on UTG +2

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises, 1 fold, MP2 (poster) calls, 2 folds, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (16 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, Button 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (16 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, Button raises, Hero calls, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls.

River: (22 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, Button bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 25 BB

damaniac

07-08-2005, 01:55 AM

Given high aggression, even absent a large number of hands, I think I put one more raise in on the turn, and call down from there. He could well overplay AA/AK/KQ like this. Also, UTG+1 is padding the pot so you have some additional overlay, since I doubt he has you beat very often.

squeek12

07-08-2005, 01:56 AM

fold preflop, there rest seems fine to me.

diablo312

07-08-2005, 02:02 AM

UTG+2 bet on the turn after the flop was capped out. That scared me a little. If he had a weak hand, why not check?

The Dude

07-08-2005, 02:04 AM

wtf? No way in hell I'm folding preflop. Even if I'm 100% sure it's getting capped behind me, I'm not folding.

The Dude

07-08-2005, 02:06 AM

Because there's no flush draw or OESD on the flop, you wouldn't put in a 3-bet on the turn against typical opponents. That said, if my opponent's true aggression level is 6 (it's probably nowhere near that high since we have so few hands on him), I'm not slowing down with TPTK, let alone a set. But even with as few hands as we've got on him, I'm putting in the maximum number of raises on every street I can.

diablo312

07-08-2005, 02:06 AM

I was in BB and I was getting like 6-1 or 7-1 odds my call. Plus so much action preflop guarantees that I am getting paid off if I hit my set.

squeek12

07-08-2005, 02:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
wtf? No way in hell I'm folding preflop. Even if I'm 100% sure it's getting capped behind me, I'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Went back to look again...I missed that hero was in the BB. You don't call 3 cold with 22, am I at least right there, because that's what I was thinking.

KDawgCometh

07-08-2005, 02:08 AM

I think leading the turn would be good, and then capping it if its three bet back to you. even over 41 hands, 6 is a very high aggro factor.

blackize

07-08-2005, 02:41 AM

UTG has an aggression of .8 after 90 hands and he raises on the flop. That should scare you right there. It is still quite possible that you have the best hand, but I would most definitely slow down after UTG with his very low aggression levels raises you.

You can probably speed up again on the river since UTG had folded.

StacysMom

07-08-2005, 04:37 AM

I lead this turn and go into call down mode if raised. The K falling is not good as with the flop play I expect an overplayed AA or KK, the K jsut killed about half the hands you are good agianst. But capping the flop to check the turn seems wrong.

mack848

07-08-2005, 04:52 AM

I think UTG+2 very likely has KQ. The Button must have AA, KK or QQ.

The K and Q on board and the likelyhood that UTG+2 has at least one of these, leads me to think Button has AA more often than a big set.

I lead the turn.

The Goober

07-08-2005, 03:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
wtf? No way in hell I'm folding preflop. Even if I'm 100% sure it's getting capped behind me, I'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if everything was the same, except the 3-bet came from the CO, and you were button with 22, would you call 3 cold? (assume that in this case you are 100% sure it won't get capped)

krimson

07-08-2005, 04:40 PM

I would lead this turn after capping. Capping the flop and then checking because of a K on the turn makes it play out kind of funny. Lead out the turn, I may even 3-bet if raised again by the button but definitely slow down if he caps.

Given that you checked I don't think UTG+2 coming alive worries me here. What did he just improve to that beats us, triple kings? Why didn't he cap pre-flop? His play looks more along the lines of AK or KQ which all of a sudden look good to him, but we still have him beat.

jba

07-08-2005, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wtf? No way in hell I'm folding preflop. Even if I'm 100% sure it's getting capped behind me, I'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if everything was the same, except the 3-bet came from the CO, and you were button with 22, would you call 3 cold? (assume that in this case you are 100% sure it won't get capped)

[/ QUOTE ]

there is a very big difference between 13:2 and 13:3 pot odds.

edited to make sense

PokerBob

07-08-2005, 04:54 PM

UTG+2 raised pf but then slowed down, which minimizes the chances of QQ IMO. Button is super aggressive and would play many hands this way. Why did you cap the flop and then check the turn???? If he has KK and pinged a 2-outer, God bless'em. Lead that turn. If it's set over set over set, you'll have bad beat story to tell for the rest of your life.