KK versus AAQ flop. Ever slow down?

[Abagadro]

Goofing around at micro.

Hold KK in MP. Raise it up. LP cold-calls, SB & BB come along. Flop comes down AAQ rainbow. Checked to me and I figure I'll see if someone has an ace. I bet out. LP calls, others fold. Turn is a J. I now pick up a gut-shot and am feeling pretty good about my kings seeing no raise on the flop, although I smell a turn raise. I put LP on a Q (as micro guys don't play too triky), but figure I'll dump it if my turn bet is raised. He just calls. Now I'm pretty confident he doesn't have an ace. My thinking is that if he has an A/small kicker, it is now a J and he wouldn't be afraid to raise his naked ace. If he has a straight or a boat, he is going to raise. If he puts me on an AK, AQ, AJ, he is going to fold (this maybe my bad thinking on this one). So, I put him on a Q, maybe KQ. River is a blank and I fire again to be called down by A5o.

Now, who played this worse? Me by continuing to bet into a caller with this kid of board and putting him on too limited range of hands? Or him by not coming over the top and giving me a chace to draw out to my 2 outer that became a 6 outer?

I'm really asking because I felt a bit foolish for betting three staight times.

[bad beetz]

He extracted the most money from you as possible, so I guess he played pretty well post flop. /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

[davidross]

He obviously played it horribly pre-flop, but probably optimally post-flop. If he is behind he will likely stay behind and if he is ahead you are drawing very thin. By letting you continue betting he makes as much as he can expect by just calling because he fears you will fold to a raise or re-raise him if you are ahead.

On the other hand I don’t know how you could play it any other way. Unless you have a terrific read on him I can’t see folding this hand

[Homer]

You both played the hand well, with the exception of his preflop coldcall. Sometimes you can play a hand perfectly and still lose, which happened to you in this case.

-- Homer

[Robk]

[STOSH1]

You're giving him credit for knowing that his kicker improved on the turn. If you've been punishing him with kicker trouble he may still think he has a 5 as kicker.
/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[Homer]

You probably wouldn't openraise from MP with A9 and lower, so really his standing only improves with the J on the turn if you are holding exactly AT. AJ and AQ make full houses and AK still has him outkicked. Plus, you could still have QQ, so I still think he has little reason to raise with a naked A. Either you are ahead and will reraise, have AT and will call/reraise, or are behind and will fold. Thus, by raising he only stands lose more when behind and win less when ahead.

-- Homer

[Zag]

Except for the call preflop, I think he played it well. However, I think you lost one more bet than you might have. Unless you have been caught recently making a stone-cold bluff with exactly this betting pattern, I hate your bet on the river. After all, what worse hands could he really have that would call, and what better hands could he have that would fold.

The only hands he could have that would actually make it to the river are KQ, maybe QJs, and Ax. There are a lot more Ax hands than those other two, and I discount somewhat the QJs because he might have folded that preflop.

Another big plus to checking the river, at least in the game I play a lot, if he does have a Q, he might think you were overplaying or bluffing and might bet at you after you check.

[cferejohn]

"The only hands he could have that would actually make it to the river are KQ, maybe QJs, and Ax. There are a lot more Ax hands than those other two, and I discount somewhat the QJs because he might have folded that preflop."

If he stayed in on A5o, he's probably pretty likely to stay in on QJs. Anyone who cold calls a raise with any A probably does so with any 2 paint cards as well (esp. if suited).

[758219]

A5, A6, A7, A8, A9, AT, AJ, AQ, AK - 9W.
KQ(L), KJ(L), KT(W), K9, K8, K7 - 1W 2L.
QJ, QT, Q9, Q8 - 4L. (He might have turn raised with QJ, but also with any ace, as that kind of cold caller doesn't often see kickers at all. You have 2+4 outs to beat AX on the turn, and the QJ raiser possibly sees his mistake by river).
JT (L), J9, J8 - 1L.
T9, T8
22,33,44,55,66,77,88,99,TT(L),JJ(W),KK(L/W),AA(W) - 1(2)W 3(9)L. (He is almost three times less likely to have a pocket pair (0.45%) vs. a slick hand (1.2%).)

11(12)W 10(16)L. To count it very crossly. Some of the loses he will fold at the river, so there was no surface reason to bet the river. The losing pocket pairs (3) vs. AX-hands (9) make him a major favorite vs. KK. Vs. a more medium cold caller you wouldn't be ahead either - he wouldn't call with AXo (the hand he would have only if it wouldn't have been a cold call), but perhaps A7, AXs, 22, that would be almost the same here. The Queen on the flop helps the KK, but because the situation is too bad on the AX vs. 22 department, it doesn't make it a value bet vs. a medium cold caller either, and especially not vs. an AX late cold caller. I think I can think that I am ~1/3 to have the best hand, ignoring other factors. Vs. AT(4), A9s(5/3=2), 66 (9/3=3), (ignoring the rest, and the reraises). It just keeps looking bad. AQ(2), AJs(3/3=1)99(6/3=2). Tighter the cold caller, the better it seems to look, and only then thinking about those Queens becomes important, but would such a person then cold call with them, other than KQ, and only possibly QJs, QTs, it adds at least one losing hand for the cold caller, but when one think AJ, KQ then we can forget the AJ and KQ hands. I think 1/3 is what I should think.

Weather one should fold on the flop depends, but there is a semi-calling hand with the help of that 3-IS. Position is bad. There is 1 in the pot, the other puts there one, and I put there one, so I need just 1/3 to see it down. If I check the river, he will bet it; can I fold then? If not, betting the river is better, as long as one can fold when it is raised, and if one can't then catching a bluff with a check compensates.

P.S.1. A pocket pair calling 1BB cold wins e.g. 6BB (-1) when it flops a set, and as itself is perhaps a brake even vs. overcards & bigger pairs (yes, I know it's break even vs. overcards alone, but we have some information here and ignore the overcards having value), so cold calling with any pair from position vs. MOR isn't all that bad, while AX is a suicide.

P.S.2. I don't see that what comes on the flop has any effect to the propability of what the opponent is holding PREFLOP. What comes after that has no effect to it, according to me; except if the flop rules out some possibility.