Who likes this river value bet?

[ryanghall]

Empire 200 NL full ring. Villain has $125, I have him covered. Villain is 70/8/4 so he's a little wacky.

I get A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif in MP.

2 folds, Villain calls. 1 fold, I raise to $8. All fold to Villain who calls.

Flop is T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet $12, Villain calls.

Turn is 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet $25, Villain calls.

River is 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet $30.

How do you like the river bet?

Ryan

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
Empire 200 NL full ring. Villain has $125, I have him covered. Villain is 70/8/4 so he's a little wacky.

I get A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif in MP.

2 folds, Villain calls. 1 fold, I raise to $8. All fold to Villain who calls.

Flop is T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet $12, Villain calls.

Turn is 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet $25, Villain calls.

River is 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet $30.

How do you like the river bet?

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

Not much, the pot is ~$100, you need to bet more on the turn AND river.

[ryanghall]

Normally, I would. However, I feel this is a special situation. Because he has a 70 VPIP, I don't want to scare him if he has a mediocre holding. I feel that full sized pot bets would do that, so that's why I'm betting 2/3 pot on flop and turn. I feel I have him beat, and I want to charge him enough so that he's not getting odds to suck out on 2 pairs, but also enough so that he'll continue to call.

On the river, if I bet much more than $30, I might as well go all in. I think he had $80 left and I didn't think he'd call an all in without a decent hand.

[fimbulwinter]

15 flop, 35 turn, ~70 river gets his whole stack easy peasy.

one thing a lot of SSNL'ers miss is that when they weakie the flop bets (like 2/3 pot instead of full pot) they lose major value on later streets. it's not just $3 or whatever, but the ability to extract $9 more on the turn and $25 more on the river. one of the qualities of a good player is being able to control the size of the pot, betting hard on the flop gives you that option later on and doesnt restrict your earnings on later streets should you decide he's made a solid 2nd best hand.

fim

[ryanghall]

Hi fim,

Everything you say in your post is true and I do understand these concepts. However, when dealing with someone with a VPIP of 70, I feel you have to take a very different course of action.

Not to be results oriented but he had A6.

I don't think he would have called full pot bets all the way with this. I thought he had a T with a mediocre kicker. I wasn't sure at all if he'd get all in with that hand so I tried to extract the maximum I could.

I don't know, maybe my reasoning is flawed but I still think I played it well.

Ryan

[fimbulwinter]

here's one to think about:

how often do you think he has bottom pair here? what about TPxK?

how much do you get extra the times he calls you down with bottom pair minus the times he would have folded for slightly bigger bets vs the times you would have taken the rest of his stack should he deicde to call you down with bottom pair or something stronger. In other words, against his likely range of holdings do you feel you maximized your EV?

if the answer is yes, then there's no reason to post this hand as all input will be worthless to you. I, however, don't feel this is the case...

fim

[ryanghall]

Point taken. He's certainly going to have TPxK more often than the latter.

It just didn't seem that cut and dried. I don't have that much experience with these 70 VPIP guys /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Thanks for the comments,
Ryan

[Alex/Mugaaz]

[ QUOTE ]
15 flop, 35 turn, ~70 river gets his whole stack easy peasy.

one thing a lot of SSNL'ers miss is that when they weakie the flop bets (like 2/3 pot instead of full pot) they lose major value on later streets. it's not just $3 or whatever, but the ability to extract $9 more on the turn and $25 more on the river. one of the qualities of a good player is being able to control the size of the pot, betting hard on the flop gives you that option later on and doesnt restrict your earnings on later streets should you decide he's made a solid 2nd best hand.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

The only problem I have with what your saying is that fish don't think of bets/raises/calls in percentages of the pot.

[soah]

Did you trade seats with him while the flop was being dealt?

[ryanghall]

Sorry, he checked each time first.