HU NL100 $200+ stacks should I expect to win this hand?

[Maulik]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($148.35)
Hero ($342.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Hero posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $1.5</font>, Hero (poster) calls $1.

Flop: ($4) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $2.

Turn: ($16) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, BB calls $15.

River: ($76) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $30</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $90</font>, Hero calls $20.35.

Final Pot: $216.35

[bobbyi]

Why not raise more on the turn?

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise more on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking is, if he has a good kicker, he'll consider calling me down as he may think I play poorly.

[Robk]

maulik,

generally no limit hands get better replies in the no limit forums, even if theyre shorthanded. if you want me to move this thread for you i will, but youre welcome to leave it here or crosspost it.

as for the hand, id raise a lot more on the flop. you are giving nice implied odds to A4, A5, 45, 56, 46, and Jx isnt in terrible shape since a 3 counterfeits your hand.

on the river i think you are &lt;50% to win this hand. i would have called the river bet. (but i havent played this limit in a while, so your judgement is probably better than mine.)

[Maulik]

please move my two current posts to the SSNL forum.

thanks in advance.

[edge]

Raise more on the flop, raise more on the turn, and call the river. He obviously has a hand he likes on the river after all of that action, and yours isn't very strong.

[arod15]

Jacks up? Interesting i think i might have called on the river if he bet 3 times you must assume he has something more than AJ. BUt i agree raise more on the turn to see where your at. If he fires again on the river just flat call. Hopefully he is stupid and thinks his lower two pair is good or overpair but i dont think id reraise this river. As if he looks you up you are probably beat.

[Maulik]

if I raise to $40 or $45 the pot is going to be ~ $105. He's going to lead out and I'm going to call his bet of 1/2 the pot or more, so its going to be tough for me to get off of this hand at that point, correct?