How much do you value bet this river?

[brassnuts]

Haven't seen much from this villain so far. I'm fairly new to the table, also.

Party Poker $100 max

Hero dealt A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in CO.

MP limps, Hero raises to $4, eveyrone folds, MP calls.

Flop A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif (pot $8.50)

MP checks, Hero bets $6, MP raises $6, Hero calls $6.

Turn K /images/graemlins/club.gif (pot $33)

MP checks, Hero bets $20, MP calls.

River: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

MP checks... how much should I bet?

[AllIn3High]

I'd check behind. I think you're splitting most of the time here. I have a hard time seeing him calling you down with a hand you beat.

[fimbulwinter]

30 looks good, though you re splitting most often.

fim

FWIW your avatar is the best evar.

[Student Caine]

I check behind, but I exemplify weak-tight.

Try to get The Worst Player here, he's aggressive as all giddy-up and will give you the line that you are looking for.

[Spladle Master]

To be honest, I don't think you should. Bet, I mean. Unless this guy has made fishy calls in the past. Also, I'd have re-raised the flop.

[RiverFenix]

Reraise flop, push non spade turn.

[poboy]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check behind. I think you're splitting most of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is the very reason he must bet. Getting villian to fold is the only way Hero wins this pot.

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd check behind. I think you're splitting most of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is the very reason he must bet. Getting villian to fold is the only way Hero wins this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think Villian is folding an ace here? I doubt it. Betting here is just burning money especially when he's behind IMHO.

[poboy]

Hero is very rarely behind here. This is most likely a split pot or a missed flush draw. If there is any chance at all(even if it is minute) villian might fold an A, then betting is clearly best. JMO

[nietzreznor]

[ QUOTE ]
This is most likely a split pot or a missed flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true, then wouldn't a check behind be in order?

I guess a lot of the merit of a value bet here hinges on how often we think villain will fold when we would split were he to call. At these levels, I doubt that is very often...

...however, I also feel like there are enough people out there who will call with some bizarre holdings. This is probably a split most often (which makes betting bad), but you may get called with something random often enough to make betting +EV.

[poboy]

[ QUOTE ]
This is probably a split most often (which makes betting bad), but you may get called with something random often enough to make betting +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is betting into what is likely a split bad? You lose nothing by betting and stand to gain the whole pot. By checking behind you gain nothing and likely lose half the pot. JMO

[amoeba]

you lose additional rake by betting.

if you want folding equity, you have to bet big as an Ace isn't folding to a value bet.

[amoeba]

because villain is always on flush draw right?

[poboy]

Most sites cap their rake at $3(not sure if this is true on Party) and with a $70+ pot on the river if it hasn't already been reached we are talking about maybe another 50 cents. Villian would need to fold a very small percentage of the time to make up for the additional rake. I agree it does need to be a large bet to get villian to fold, a value bet isn't going to do it. JMO

[brassnuts]

Well, I checked it. Villain showed KTo, MHIG.

[just2ska]

what if you value bet and get re raised large?

check it.

[amoeba]

if you are counting the small edge that you get from getting him to fold a split with a huge bet, you must also count the small percentage of times that he would check the river with a boat.

I still maintain that check behind is correct.

[cfb1739]

I don't see a hand here that will call your river bet unless you are beat.

Unless you think villain played A2, A3 or A4 this way, then you should check behind.

[poboy]

True but then we would also have to factor in the small percentage of times that villian will call our bet with a worse hand. I really believe betting is better, very little risk for what could possibly be a large reward. JMO

[poboy]

You do realize Hero isn't beating any of those hands right?

[amoeba]

no hand without at least an ace will call the type of bet we are thinking of making.

it doesn't make sense. They'll call a bet designed to fold an ace with a non ace hand ?

you either have an ace fold or a worse hand call, you can't have both.

perhaps the best line, after knowing the results, is to actually bet so small that a K calls. as thats probably more value than trying to get an ace to fold.

[yellowjack]

I don't like the PFR. By folding here am I losing money?

[brassnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the PFR. By folding here am I losing money?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, I'm a NL newbie. But, just from playinga lot of limit 6max, I'd say folding here is bad. Limping is what I would usually do. I just felt like raising. It was done on impulse. I dedicate this raise to Shania.

WOW. I just realized I never mentioned this was 6max. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the PFR. By folding here am I losing money?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, I'm a NL newbie. But, just from playinga lot of limit 6max, I'd say folding here is bad. Limping is what I would usually do. I just felt like raising. It was done on impulse. I dedicate this raise to Shania.

WOW. I just realized I never mentioned this was 6max. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

he is replying to the wrong thread.

He meant to reply to the KK thread.