KK on the turn [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

QTip

07-07-2005, 10:44 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG raises, 4 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP3 folds, Button 3-bets, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets, Hero raises

The button here was extremely loose and quite aggressive.

UTG is fairly decent. I say this because he was very tight, and didn't raise enough PF and aggression wasn't quite what it should be postflop. After his cap PF, I think I'm running into a big pocket pair here the vast majority of the time. Kings are highly unlikely, Queens maybe, but when 1 fell on the turn and he checked, I was quite certain it was going to be a check/raise or he had pocket Aces.

I thought I'd take shot and kicking him out if he had Aces or Kings. Would anyone of you have folded your big pair to 2 large here?

Sure, the button might have the 8, but might not.

I thought it was worth a shot. I get 3 bet by UTG, it's QQ, and I'm done.

What do you think?

Two_Slick

07-07-2005, 11:19 PM

Given the pf cap from UTG followed by raise on the flop I'd put him on 10's or better... however, he could attempting isolate to the LAG. I don't know about the turn bet with such a high likelihood he may call or re-raise with a better hand. I think I call on the turn and check/call the river (b/c I don't see either player folding at this point).

pokerjunky

07-08-2005, 12:42 AM

It's close but I'm leaning more towards just calling. For this play to be good not only does your hand have to beat the button's but it also has to get UTG to fold a better hand often enough to make it profitable.

Of course the pot is pretty large and UTG only needs to fold a better or equal hand roughly one time in eight, but I'm not sure how you would factor in the fact that button may already have you beat. Plus UTG may have been planning to fold AK anyway if thats what he had.

I'm interested to see what others think.

QTip

07-08-2005, 09:00 AM

Bump for the day crowd

thejameser

07-08-2005, 09:10 AM

did you fold to the 3bet?

Bascule

07-08-2005, 09:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]

The button here was extremely loose and quite aggressive.

I thought I'd take shot and kicking him out if he had Aces or Kings. Would anyone of you have folded your big pair to 2 large here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not I would fold would depend on my perception of you. Holding AA, I wouldn't be worried enough about the button to fold. Your preflop play marks you with a big pocket pair, and it's 4 times more likely that you're holding KK or JJ than QQ. So I'd fold only if I saw you as a rock. Given your likely TAG-like stats, I wouldn't be folding AA here.

But of course, UTG could lay down AA. In my more weak-tight days I might have folded here. If we say that UTG's range is JJ-AA, he's holding AA 6/(6+1+3+6) = 37% of the time. Given your read of the button, folding the turn seems out of the question, so you're risking 1BB to pick up the 16.5BB pot when UTG folds AA and the button doesn't have an 8. A crude calculation says this will be profitable when

16.5 * 0.37 * p(UTG folds AA) * p(no 8 for button) > 1

So, I guess this will be profitable if UTG will fold AA here about 1/3 of the time. How weak is UTG?

jskills

07-08-2005, 10:02 AM

I like it. I think your plan for the turn is dead on. He's going to 3-bet if he's got QQ.

Given your read on UTG, I suspect you're looking at AA , KK, or (maybe) JJ otherwise. As you said, KK is less likely. But if UTG sticks around, I'd still have to check / call the river on a non-ace.

jjacky

07-08-2005, 10:09 AM

i can't imagine that UTG would lay down AA in this situation. not even 10% of the time.

Moozh

07-08-2005, 11:40 AM

I don't like it. If UTG is overly tight, he's holding AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, and maaaaybe TT. You beat AK, JJ, and the ever so unlikely TT.

When you check-raise the turn forcing him to call two cold, he's folding JJ, AK and TT. He's definitley not folding AA, KK, or QQ. That's a bad value raise.

If he's that tight, you might just want to call down from the turn.

EDIT: Since UTG checked the turn, it's looking very much like you have him beat (if he's scared of the Q). Thus, I'd lean towards either calling the turn and betting the river (maybe hoping that the button raises), or just check/calling both hoping for the overcall.

DMBFan23

07-08-2005, 12:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG raises, 4 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP3 folds, Button 3-bets, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets, Hero raises

The button here was extremely loose and quite aggressive.

UTG is fairly decent. I say this because he was very tight, and didn't raise enough PF and aggression wasn't quite what it should be postflop. After his cap PF, I think I'm running into a big pocket pair here the vast majority of the time. Kings are highly unlikely, Queens maybe, but when 1 fell on the turn and he checked, I was quite certain it was going to be a check/raise or he had pocket Aces.

I thought I'd take shot and kicking him out if he had Aces or Kings. Would anyone of you have folded your big pair to 2 large here?

I thought it was worth a shot. I get 3 bet by UTG, it's QQ, and I'm done.

What do you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

did you call the flop 3 bet to see if UTG would cap, or to set up the turn c/r? once he doesn't cap, I really don't think he has AA. once he checks the turn, I am thinking AK, or like JJ. also QQ is possible but without a read I tend not to assume. AA is possible too I suppose but I'm not going to go into a shell because he MIGHT have it...not yet.

Sure, the button might have the 8, but might not. maybe like A8s, 99, 77, TT, 89s, 44 either way the pot is so big that folding is bad IMO.

turn is sweet. I would probably call and draw if UTG 3 bets here, we'd have odds to spike a K unless button is likely to cap (anyone want to do tha math on how often he has to cap for us to have outs? it would have to factor in our sweet implied odds against anyone willing to cap this turn). if UTG folds and button 3 bets, I would call down.

What was your turn plan if UTG capped the flop?

DMBFan23

07-08-2005, 12:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i can't imagine that UTG would lay down AA in this situation. not even 10% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you, not on this board with this pot

chesspain

07-08-2005, 12:16 PM

I don't see the point of the turn checkraise. If UTG is this tight, I doubt he capped with AK preflop. He's not folding AA, and he will either check-threebet w/QQ or coldcall and then pop it on the river. And in the unlikely event he has a hand like JJ, you certainly don't want him folding.

Paxosmotic

07-08-2005, 12:19 PM

That turn check-raise serves to push out of the hand the only person we may be ahead of. That Q pretty much ruined our hand since QQ just drew out and the other major option is AA which was ahead all along. Now we're probably a mile behind. I'd see it down cheaply, but seeing it down is a must, we can't get rid of this one.

chesspain

07-08-2005, 12:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now we're probably a mile behind. I'd see it down cheaply, but seeing it down is a must, we can't get rid of this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seeing this down is never a "must," especially if the action here or on the river screams that we are beaten.

QTip

07-08-2005, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i can't imagine that UTG would lay down AA in this situation. not even 10% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you, not on this board with this pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that's true. Wouldn't you be concerned that the very aggressive LP player is going to 3 bet and you'll get trapped in the middle? I should would be thinking about it if I were him. Not sure if I would fold or not, but I would be hating my hand at that point.

QTip

07-08-2005, 12:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That turn check-raise serves to push out of the hand the only person we may be ahead of. That Q pretty much ruined our hand since QQ just drew out and the other major option is AA which was ahead all along. Now we're probably a mile behind. I'd see it down cheaply, but seeing it down is a must, we can't get rid of this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was almost completely convinced I was behind UTG at this point even though he didn't cap the flop. The only person I thought I might be ahead of was the loose aggressive player.

QTip

07-08-2005, 12:46 PM

UTG calls my turn raise and so does LP.

River: Total Rag

When UTG just calls my turn raise, I'm certain he's ahead of me or we're chopping (AA or KK). What would your plan be on this river? I really don't like any option I can think of.