AK river decision with straight

[ceyoung]

under 20 hands with both players. but their vpips are under 20%.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (9.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero ...
Final Pot: 15.25 BB



what would you do on this river?

[Justin A]

Call. 3betting probably knocks out BB and opens you up to a cap from MP if you're beat. If you're ahead you probably get the same amount of bets by 3betting and calling.

[Derek132260]

On the river I'm looking for the overcall from the BB.

On the FLOP, however...you're getting 12-to-1 to call. If you assume that BB has EXACTLY QQ (the best case scenario for you at this point), then you have 6 live outs with aces and kings and maybe 1 for the possibility of runner-runnering this straight. So, ABSOLUTE best case scenario, you've got 7 outs here. Which means that in reality, you need to be thinking more along the lines of having about 3.5 outs. So you're about 6-to-1 and getting offered 11-to-1. Fine.

But on the turn, even though your hand technically improves, your situation is now worse. Now you can, at most, give yourself 1 full out for an ace or king hitting. And you can give yourself 3.5 outs for a ten hitting (cause if it's a diamond it may make someone the flush). You're now getting 8.5-to-1 from the pot, but over 10-to-1 against making the best hand. And over 15-to-1 against making the nuts that you can clearly jam with to extract necessary value. For me, this is probably a turn fold.

Someone please critique my logic here, as I'm trying very hard to start thinking on this level more.

[oreogod]

MP1s play is intresting. Limps in, calls 2 cold when the betting comes back to him. He probably has suited high cards (QJs is what Im thinking, dont know if Qts makes it) or PP that became a set (very unlikely though). Dont know if K9 or 98 is possible here. A-xs is if he decided to take one off and picked up the flush. Any other hands that give him a flush, he'd be retarded to play.

I call, going for overcalls here. Sucks if he actually had the flush. I still think QJs is a pretty likely hand for him to have (or the unlikely passively played AK).

[oreogod]

Im more inclined to think u have 6-7 outs on the turn (5 outs at the lowest). And even if it is only 5 outs, the call is just breakeven.

The turn is a pretty easy fold if u didnt pick up some gutshot outs.

[ceyoung]

I called the river going for the over call. i get the same amount of bets, without risking the cap. i think the turn call is close, but i liked it cause i was closing the action.

BB turns over AA
MP1 shows JJ

MHIG